####018007790#### FGUS71 KBTV 281549 ESFBTV NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023- 027-290400- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 1149 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook... This is the seventh flood outlook for the 2024 winter/spring flood season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont to summarize the flood potential due to snowmelt and break up/formation of river ice across northern and central Vermont and northern New York. This outlook is valid for the two week period from March 28 to April 11, 2024. ...Overview... The potential for open water flooding through early April is below normal across the St Lawrence Valley and northwestern Adirondacks. The rest of the area, the open water flooding threat is near normal. The threat for flooding due to ice jams has passed for the 2023-2024 season, since no river ice exists across the region. Although the last half of March averaged warmer than normal, the past week saw a trend back toward cooler than normal conditions. The pattern remained fairly active as well. A significant storm system brought widespread snow to the region March 23, with some areas receiving 2 feet or more of new snow. However, increasing sun angle and temperatures returning to near to above normal in the few days since then have allowed substantial snow melt. The Champlain Valley lost all its new snow, and many locations lost half or more of the snowpack. The following is a summary of the conditions by region as of Thursday morning, March 28, 2024: ...St Lawrence Valley... .Flood Risk...Below normal .Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover .Water Equivalent...Below normal, none .Streamflows...Normal .Soil state...Normal wetness .Groundwater...Normal .River Ice...None ...Northern Adirondacks... .Flood Risk...Below normal west, normal east .Snow Cover...Below normal, little snow below 2000 ft, 10 to 20 inches above 2000 ft, 3+ ft at summit levels .Water Equivalent...Below normal, little below 2000 ft, 1-3 inches above 2000 ft, locally more at summit level .Streamflows...Normal .Soil state...Above normal wetness .Groundwater...Above normal .River Ice...None ...Champlain Valley... .Flood Risk...Near normal .Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover .Water Equivalent...Below normal, none .Streamflows...Normal to above normal .Soil state...Above normal wetness .Groundwater...Above normal .River Ice...None ...Central/northern Green Mountains and Upper CT River Valley... .Flood Risk...Near normal .Snow Cover...Below to locally near normal. Values 6 to 18 inches mid-terrain, 15 to 30 inches in higher summits .Water Equivalent...Below normal to locally near normal. Half inch to 2 inches mid-terrain, 2 to 5 inches in higher summits .Streamflows...Normal to above normal .Soil state...Above normal wetness .Groundwater...Normal to above normal .River Ice...None ...Southern VT and the adjacent Connecticut River Valley... .Flood Risk...Near normal .Snow Cover...Below normal to locally near normal. Values 6 to 18 inches mid-terrain, 15 to 30 inches in higher summits, 3+ ft at summit level .Water Equivalent...Below normal to locally near normal. Half inch to 2 inches mid-terrain, 2 to 5 inches in higher summits .Streamflows...Normal to above normal .Soil state...Above normal wetness .Groundwater...Normal to above normal .River Ice...None ..Snow Depths and Water Equivalent... A strong storm system brought widespread snow to the region March 23, with some locations reporting 2 feet or more of accumulation. The greatest snowfall occurred across portions of central and southern Vermont. Warming temperatures thereafter has allowed some of this snowpack to melt, especially at lower elevations; the Champlain Valley has lost all its snow. Even higher locales lost a substantial amount of the new snowpack, though isolated spots are still indicating around 1.5 of depth. Despite this, snow pack and the snow water equivalent remain below normal across the vast majority of the region. ...River and River Ice Conditions... Daily and multi-day averaged streamflows remain at or above normal across the entire region. This is indicative of residual interflow and runoff from recent precipitation, and some surface recharge through snowmelt in the lower elevations. No river ice exists across all of Vermont and northern New York. ...Soil Moisture and Groundwater Conditions... Moist soil conditions have persisted across the region over the past two weeks. Some of the moist near-surface readings have occurred due to recent snowmelt recharge and rainfall. This is supported by the latest groundwater data from the United States Geological Survey showing most values ranging through the mid to upper quartiles. ...Weather Outlook... The first few days of the outlook period will be dry, but the potential for widespread substantial precipitation increases by the middle of next week as a storm system looks to affect the region. Precipitation is still difficult to discern at this time, though it appears at least eastern Vermont should mostly see snow as temperatures will return to near or even slightly below normal. A blocking pattern sets up thereafter, so unsettled weather will be more likely across the Northeast US. The official National Weather Service 6 to 10 Day Outlook for April 2-6 matches the above thinking, calling for above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures. ...Summary... Based on the meteorological and hydrological information discussed above, the potential for open water flooding over the next two weeks is below normal for the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and northwestern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, across the northeastern Adirondacks, central and northern Vermont including the entire Champlain Valley and southern Vermont east of the Green Mountains, the open water flooding threat is normal. The current snow depths and snow water equivalents are mainly below normal, though a few isolated spots in central and southern Vermont are likely closer to normal due to the recent heavy snow event. Soil moisture states are generally normal to above normal as are river flows, but with no widespread rainfall expected over the next few days, runoff should abate somewhat, though snowmelt will likely continue. Chances for precipitation increase by the middle of next week, but temperature profiles indicate that at least some areas could receive mostly snow. Still, with substantial liquid precipitation amounts possible, a near normal flood threat seems reasonable for much of the area outside of the St Lawrence Valley and northwestern Adirondacks. No river ice exists across the region, so the threat of ice jam flooding has passed for this season. It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can result in flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have little or no snow on the ground and overall predictability beyond 10 days is generally on the lower side of average. A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NWS Burlington service area is available online at: www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by NWS Burlington on Thursday, April 11, 2024. For access to current weather conditions and forecasts, please visit our web site at www.weather.gov/btv. $$