####018005269#### FGUS71 KBUF 282117 ESFBUF NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117- 121-042130- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 517 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ....BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 11TH... This is the seventh flood potential outlook of the 2024 season. Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on them, along with the expected conditions during the next two weeks. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY... There is no snow pack in place in any of our basins. This is below normal, particularly in the Black River basin which would typically have some snow across higher terrain in late March. Stream flows are generally near normal, except the Allegheny River which is below normal. It's been fairly dry across Western New York, with the U.S. drought monitor showing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions in lower portions of the Genesee River basin and northern parts of the Buffalo area creeks. The following is a summary of the conditions at 7 a.m. Thursday morning, March 28th: ...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .CREEK FLOWS.........Near normal. .CREEK ICE...........None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Semi-saturated. ...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .CREEK FLOWS.........Near normal. .CREEK ICE...........None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Semi-saturated. ...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .CREEK FLOWS.........Below normal. .CREEK ICE...........None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Semi-saturated. ...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL... .SNOW COVER..........None. .WATER EQUIVALENT....None. .RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near normal. .RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None. .GROUND FROST........None. .GROUND STATE........Saturated. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... It will be a generally dry weather pattern through Monday, although there may be some light showers at times with total precipitation amounts less than a quarter inch. Low pressure will bring potentially more significant precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Most if this should fall as rain, but some wet snow may mix in at times. Storm total precipitation amounts are likely to average around an inch for the entire event. Ensembles suggest a small risk of around 20 percent for 2-day precipitation amounts of 2 inches. After some lingering rain or snow showers Wednesday night through Thursday night, a cool and mainly precipitation free weather pattern is expected Friday and Saturday. The 8 to 14 day outlook favors above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. The overall risk of a significant rain producing system during this timeframe is low, but non-zero. ...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... Through April 11th the overall risk for flooding is below normal. There is no snow pack in place, and current stream flows are generally near normal with some locations below normal. As a result, it would take a significant rain producing system to cause any flooding during the period. Through Monday of next week, a generally dry weather pattern with only light precipitation amounts will result in no risk for flooding. A storm system will bring more significant precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday next week, although it will be a long and drawn out event with periodic waves of precipitation rather than a heavy burst of rain. The most likely storm totals of around an inch would not cause any issues since there is no snow pack in place. The small risk of higher storm total amounts of 2 inches would support action stage rises. This is really the only event of note for this outlook period. This will be followed by cooler weather with some rain or snow showers lasting through at least Thursday night. After this, the risk for flooding is non-zero but still below normal for what is climatologically a season for high flows. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for specific locations along rivers across Western New York can be found on the internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can change, please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and statements for additional information. This is expected to be the final Winter/Spring Outlook of the season. An additional outlook will be issued on April 11 only if snow pack become re-established or if there is a significant flood risk at the time. We would like to thank all the observers and agencies which have helped gather data in support of this outlook. $$ Apffel