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FGUS71 KRLX 011752

ESFRLX

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-081800-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Charleston WV

1252 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024



...The flood potential is expected to be near normal for the next

two weeks...



The coverage area of this outlook is limited to just the states

of Ohio and Kentucky.



A normal flood potential means at least some flooding is

possible. An above normal flood potential means more widespread 

flooding is possible with some points possibly reaching moderate 

or major flood levels.



This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in 

winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to

assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on 

current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.



The factors considered when determining flood potential include:

current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for

the period, water equivalent in any snowpack, soil moisture, and 

expected precipitation.



...Precipitation...

Precipitation amounts over the past two weeks were below normal

across southeast Ohio and slightly above normal in northeast

Kentucky. However, this past week has been above normal thanks to

recent heavy rains.



...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture is above normal.



...Snow Cover and Snow Water Equivalent...

There is no snow cover across the area.



...Reservoir Capacity...

Reservoirs are at winter pools with ample storage available.



...River Ice...

River ice is non existent.



...Streamflow Conditions...

Streamflows are generally above normal thanks to recent rains. The

Ohio River is running normal to slightly above normal for flows.





...The Hydrologic Outlook through the next two weeks...

An active pattern will carry through the next two weeks, 

resulting in rounds of rains every two to three days. However,

with above normal temperatures and early onset of greening of

grasses, runoff will begin to decrease. This should keep the flood

risk more toward normal, absent any large system.



...Ensemble River Forecasts...

There is no strong signal of broad scale flood potential over the

next two weeks. 



Real-time river information and forecasts for specific locations

along rivers across eastern Kentucky and southeast Ohio, 

can be found at:



www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=rlx



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