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FGUS71 KALY 111821

ESFALY

CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-

111-113-115-VTC003-025-181830-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Albany NY

221 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024



...Flood threat remains above normal for a portion of the Albany 

service area...



Flood potential is above normal for southeastern portions of the

outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with the

potential for near term rainfall. Flood potential is above normal

for southern Vermont due to near term snowmelt and rainfall. The

flood potential is considered near normal for the rest of the

service area. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season. 



A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at: 

http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential 



This map does not address the potential for ice jam flooding.



This is the eighth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by 

the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the

potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern 

Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County 

Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson, 

Mohawk and Housatonic.



This outlook is valid for the two-week period from April 11th

through the 25th. If all remaining snow melts and no additional

snowpack materializes over the two week outlook period, this will

be the final outlook of the season. 



...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...



Much of the snow depth and snow water equivalent present at the

last two week outlook issuance has melted. Snowpack in the highest

peaks of the Western Adirondacks shows a few isolated measurements

of 3 to 9 inches of depth with liquid equivalents of 1 to 3

inches; the rest of the Western Adirondacks are either snow free

or have so little snow as to be hydrologically insignificant. Snow

also remains in the highest peaks of Southern Vermont, with 2 to 8

inches of snowpack holding a modeled 1 to 3 inches of liquid

equivalent. Lower elevations in Southern Vermont are snow free or

have so little snow as to be hydrologically insignificant.

Elsewhere around the outlook area is snow free at this time.



...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...  



According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day

streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New

York are running generally near normal, with a few locations in

the southern portion of the service area remaining above normal

for this time of year. Per USGS monitoring wells, groundwater

levels are generally near normal for much of the outlook area,

with a number of Mid-Hudson Valley locations showing above normal

levels. Palmer drought severity remains much wetter than normal

for the entire outlook area, generally “extremely moist”. New York

State Mesonet observations show soil temperatures well above

freezing, over 40 degrees F, at all depths. 



...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...



The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.



...WATER SUPPLY... 



New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) 

water supply reservoir levels remain above normal for this time of

year. Total storage is currently at 99.4 percent of capacity, or 

half a percent above normal capacity for this time of year. 



Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels

continue to rise, however as this is generally the time of

reservoir fill, they are getting closer to normal for this time of

year. The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 12 feet above normal

for this time of year. Indian Lake is under 2 feet above normal

for this time of year. In the Black River watershed, Stillwater

Reservoir and First Lake are around a foot above normal, and Sixth

Lake is less than a foot above normal. 



...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...



The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 

outlooks (for April 16 to 20 and April 18-24, respectively) both 

call for above normal temperatures and precipitation. 



...SUMMARY...



Flood potential is above normal for southeastern portions of the 

outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with the 

potential for near term rainfall. Flood potential is above normal 

for southern Vermont due to near term snowmelt and rainfall. The 

flood potential is considered near normal for the rest of the 

service area. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season. 





Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous

Weather Outlook when necessary at 

forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY



Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our

web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to ten day ensemble 

forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. 



It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can produce

flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have below

normal snowpack and no river ice.



$$



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