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020-030-151500-



Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service San Juan PR

1111 AM AST Sun Apr 14 2024



...A WET PERIOD EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS THE

ISLANDS...

...THIS MARKS THE ONSET OF THE EARLY WET SEASON IN THE

NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...



An unsettled and wet pattern is expected to prevail through the

middle of the workweek across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Recent satellite imagery shows a robust area of enhanced moisture

approaching the region. Additionally, instability aloft will

increase as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. 



The interaction of these features will favor the development of 

showers and thunderstorms across the region, starting today and 

stretching into at least Wednesday. Periods of moderate to locally

heavy rainfall is expected, especially for the eastern, northern 

and interior of Puerto Rico. Additionally, some pulses of showers

will move over the Virgin Islands and southern Puerto Rico at 

times.



The risk for urban and small stream flooding, water surges along

rivers, and mudslides will also increase, while isolated flash 

flooding cannot be ruled out. For now, the wettest period appears 

to be Monday through Wednesday, with conditions improving by 

Thursday. 



Usually, the early wet season begins in the northeastern Caribbean

by mid-April, extending into the end of May. This year, the 

climatological guidance (very long-range models) indicate that 

rainfall should be above normal for Puerto Rico and for the Virgin

Islands through this period. While enhanced precipitation would 

prevent drought from redeveloping, it would also mean that 

flooding could become more frequent, and residents are encouraged 

to review their flooding plans. 



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