####018001963#### FGUS74 KCRP 181612 ESFCRP PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the San Antonio River Basin in South Texas... The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the San Antonio River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the Chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the Next 90 days. Example: The San Antonio River at Goliad has a flood stage of 25 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Goliad forecast point will rise above 16.0 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- San Antonio River Goliad 25.0 6.3 7.3 10.6 12.9 16.0 19.4 21.3 25.2 34.8 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002804#### FGUS74 KCRP 181614 ESFCRP PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1114 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Nueces River Basin in South Texas... The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service office has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Nueces River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Nuecas River at Calallen has a flood stage of 7 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Calallen forecast point will rise above 5.3 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Aransas River Skidmore 13.0 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.1 11.6 21.6 26.4 Atascosa River Whitsett 20.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 9.4 12.8 14.8 18.2 20.0 23.3 Frio River Tilden 22.0 2.9 3.7 4.4 6.2 6.9 7.6 11.3 20.1 24.7 San Miguel Creek Tilden 21.0 4.6 4.6 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.2 8.2 12.4 13.5 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Nueces River Cotulla 15.0 4.2 4.3 5.0 6.1 6.5 7.5 10.3 12.2 16.4 Tilden 14.0 2.9 3.7 5.1 6.1 9.0 12.5 15.0 18.9 19.7 Three Rivers 25.0 1.4 2.4 3.7 7.9 12.4 14.0 19.7 25.5 31.9 Mathis 25.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.7 26.2 Bluntzer 18.0 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.7 8.5 9.7 10.1 13.7 28.0 Calallen 7.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.3 7.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$