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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX

1115 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024



...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Trinity River Basin in Southeast Texas...





The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service office has

implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the

Trinity River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the

National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic

outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.





In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the

next 90 days. Example: The Trinity River at Liberty has a flood

stage of 26 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Liberty

forecast point will rise above 24.8 feet during the next 90 days.





           Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

                  Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024





Location     fs(ft)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Trinity River

 Crockett     41.0    27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 30.1 34.7 38.8 46.2

Bedias Creek

 Madisonville 19.0     6.5 11.4 13.9 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.4 19.5

Trinity River

 Riverside   134.0   134.0 134.0 134.0 134.0 134.0 134.0 134.1 135.2 136.8

Long King Creek

 Livingston   19.0     4.8  5.1  5.2  5.7  7.7  9.1 14.0 18.6 22.2

Lower Trinity River

 Goodrich     36.0    21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.6 23.3 28.3 32.2 35.0

Rye Creek

 Rye          20.0    10.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.9 18.0 21.2 23.5

Trinity River

 Romayor      40.0    23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 24.0 25.3 28.7 31.7 33.7

 Liberty      26.0    24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.8 26.0 27.7 28.9 29.6

 Moss Bluff   15.0    12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.4 13.3 14.2 14.4 14.7





This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are

calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical

climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take

into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.

By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the

level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can

be determined.





Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the

internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx

(internet address is all lower case).





Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third

Thursday of every month.





$$