####018002728#### FGUS74 KEWX 181832 ESFEWX 191232- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado River Basin in South Central Texas... The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Colorado River Basin in South Central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate The chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Smithville has a flood stage of 20 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Smithville forecast point will rise above 7.6 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Colorado River Austin 33.0 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.2 21.6 Bastrop 23.0 5.7 6.0 6.9 8.1 9.9 12.2 13.9 17.1 20.9 Smithville 20.0 4.2 4.4 5.2 6.3 7.6 10.2 12.3 14.4 19.4 La Grange 26.0 6.6 7.6 8.7 9.5 13.3 13.9 16.7 18.9 23.9 Llano River Llano 10.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 4.8 5.1 6.6 7.7 9.5 11.2 Sandy Creek nr Kingsland 12.0 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.6 10.8 12.6 Pedernales River Fredericksburg 22.0 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.9 9.3 10.6 12.0 18.3 Johnson City 14.0 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.8 16.5 Barton Creek Loop 360 Austin 8.0 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.4 5.6 6.4 11.2 Onion Creek Hwy 183 Austin 17.0 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.1 13.9 16.3 21.1 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ewx Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002173#### FGUS74 KCRP 181831 ESFCRP PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 131 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas... The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Guadalupe River at Victoria has a flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Victoria forecast point will rise above 22.3 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Guadalupe River Victoria 21.0 8.2 9.3 11.4 13.5 22.3 24.6 27.2 27.8 28.6 Bloomington 20.0 13.7 15.0 19.5 20.8 24.1 24.9 25.8 26.0 26.6 Coleto Creek Arnold Road Cr. 15.0 4.4 4.4 5.6 8.0 8.9 10.2 11.0 12.6 17.1 Hwy 59 Victoria 25.0 3.9 3.9 9.3 11.0 12.1 13.7 14.0 16.4 20.4 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002189#### FGUS74 KCRP 181832 ESFCRP PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas... The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Guadalupe River at Victoria has a flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Victoria forecast point will rise above 22.3 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Guadalupe River Victoria 21.0 8.2 9.3 11.4 13.5 22.3 24.6 27.2 27.8 28.6 Bloomington 20.0 13.7 15.0 19.5 20.8 24.1 24.9 25.8 26.0 26.6 Coleto Creek Arnold Road Cr. 15.0 4.4 4.4 5.6 8.0 8.9 10.2 11.0 12.6 17.1 Hwy 59 Victoria 25.0 3.9 3.9 9.3 11.0 12.1 13.7 14.0 16.4 20.4 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018001995#### FGUS74 KEWX 181833 ESFEWX 191232- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Brazos River Basin in South Central Texas... The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in South Central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: the South Fork San Gabriel River at Georgetown has a flood stage of 9 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Georgetown forecast point will rise above 4.6 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Fork San Gabriel River Georgetown 9.0 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.4 7.5 11.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ewx Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$