####018003677#### FGUS71 KOKX 151300 ESFOKX WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 800 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... This is the fourth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series of routine Winter/Spring Flood Potential statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next two weeks. This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions. This outlook does not address the severity of any future river flooding. The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from February 20th through the 24th suggests near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from February 22nd through the 28th suggests above normal temperatures and above normal to above normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding potential is considered low or below normal. Current flooding - None. Precipitation - Precipitation departures from normal across the Hydrologic Service Area for the last 60 days were anywhere between 2 to 10 inches above normal across the entire Hydrologic Service Area. Snow Conditions – Below normal. There is currently 5 to 13 inches of snow on the ground across interior northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson River Valley and southern Connecticut with 3 to 8 inches of snow on the ground across coastal northeast New Jersey, NYC and Long Island. Snow Equivalent - There is currently 0.50 to 1.5 inches of water equivalent in the snowpack. River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and streams are running normal to above normal. Real-Time Water data can be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water. Soil moisture – Above normal. Soil moisture and drought related data and charts can be seen at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov /products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif and www.drought.gov. Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City water supply system were 7 percent above normal. Reservoir levels across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs were 14 percent above normal. Summary - During the two-week outlook period ending on February 29th expect temperatures and precipitation to be normal during the first week of this outlook period then above normal temperatures and precipitation for the second half of this outlook period across the Hydrologic Service Area. Flood potential during the next two weeks ending on February 29th will be normal. For more information on the threat for river flooding please visit: www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs For complete weather information, visit our web site at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY The next Winter Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks, on February 29th, 2024.