####018004876#### FGUS74 KFWD 151706 ESFFWD TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161- 181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333- 337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-160504- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1106 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River near South Bend has a Flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the South Bend forecast point will rise above 10.9 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 02/14/2024 - 05/14/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Big Sandy Creek Breckenridge 24.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.8 10.4 14.0 24.4 26.2 28.7 Upper Brazos River South Bend 21.0 4.7 5.9 7.1 9.2 10.9 11.9 14.2 17.1 22.8 Palo Pinto 18.0 2.4 3.8 4.2 6.0 7.6 8.7 10.0 11.7 15.3 Dennis 25.0 3.2 4.9 5.7 8.2 9.2 11.9 13.7 14.6 23.1 Glen Rose 29.0 7.1 7.7 9.2 9.9 11.2 13.3 13.9 17.1 21.5 Aquilla 29.0 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 13.7 16.4 19.8 21.4 Paluxy River Glen Rose 22.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.9 7.5 8.3 9.3 12.3 23.3 Nolan River Blum 24.0 3.2 3.7 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.1 7.2 11.0 18.7 Lower Brazos River Waco 27.0 9.5 9.5 9.5 11.3 13.0 17.0 19.9 21.8 23.0 Highbank 35.0 7.0 7.0 8.3 10.5 13.7 14.5 18.2 20.1 22.7 North Bosque River Hico 24.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.8 12.2 14.9 18.8 21.2 26.1 Clifton 23.0 6.4 8.5 9.8 13.4 15.8 17.0 19.5 23.1 32.6 Valley Mills 36.0 10.7 13.6 15.3 21.2 25.6 27.3 29.2 33.5 38.8 Hog Creek Crawford 14.0 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.6 8.0 Middle Bosque River McGregor 20.0 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.2 7.1 10.7 14.0 20.4 Sabana River De Leon 19.0 2.5 2.8 5.8 8.2 11.1 14.0 16.9 17.4 19.1 Leon River De Leon 12.0 2.1 2.9 4.0 6.8 8.7 10.2 11.1 12.9 14.1 Hamilton 26.0 7.7 8.5 11.2 14.2 15.3 16.7 17.8 19.9 22.6 Gatesville 22.0 4.9 7.0 8.0 11.0 13.1 17.1 19.5 21.8 26.3 Belton 14.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.7 6.6 Cowhouse Creek Pidcoke 20.0 4.0 4.0 6.4 8.6 9.3 11.3 12.4 13.0 13.8 Lampasas River Kempner 18.0 1.6 1.6 3.6 4.9 5.5 6.6 8.1 8.8 9.5 Little River Little River 30.0 7.0 7.9 8.6 11.3 12.4 15.3 15.8 20.1 28.3 Rockdale 30.0 7.8 12.6 15.3 17.2 23.9 30.0 31.7 32.5 34.3 Cameron 30.0 4.1 8.0 10.0 11.7 17.1 23.7 25.6 26.6 31.0 Navasota River Groesbeck 7.0 4.2 4.9 5.4 6.4 7.1 8.0 8.9 9.6 11.9 Easterly 19.0 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.7 22.8 23.4 24.2 25.1 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Graham 1069.4 1069.5 1069.7 1069.9 1070.4 1071.0 1071.2 Hubbard Cr Lk 1171.5 1171.5 1171.5 1171.7 1172.1 1172.7 1173.6 Lk Leon 1364.9 1365.0 1365.2 1365.3 1366.2 1367.2 1367.8 20% 10% --- --- Lk Graham 1072.1 1073.5 Hubbard Cr Lk 1173.8 1174.7 Lk Leon 1368.2 1372.0 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Palo Pinto 857.6 858.1 858.4 859.1 861.0 862.8 865.0 866.4 868.4 Lk Pat Cleburne 734.3 734.3 734.3 734.4 734.5 734.7 734.8 735.8 736.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fwd Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002815#### FGUS74 KHGX 151707 ESFHGX 160507- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 1107 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River at Richmond has a flood stage of 45 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Richmond forecast point will rise above 29.4 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 02/14/2024 - 05/14/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Brazos River Bryan 52.0 16.9 21.1 23.3 24.3 27.5 30.1 32.5 36.5 38.9 East Yegua Creek Dime Box 12.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 9.7 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.1 Middle Yegua Creek Dime Box 10.0 2.6 2.6 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.3 10.1 11.1 12.8 Davidson Creek Lyons 16.0 4.3 5.2 12.5 14.1 15.1 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.7 Navasota River Normangee 15.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.3 19.5 Mill Creek Bellville 20.0 4.6 5.5 7.9 9.7 10.5 11.1 12.2 13.5 14.7 Lower Brazos River Hempstead 50.0 20.6 23.4 25.4 28.2 29.2 33.9 39.6 42.3 44.6 San Felipe 122.5 98.5 100.4 101.4 103.4 104.3 107.9 110.9 113.6 116.0 Richmond 45.0 19.9 21.8 24.3 27.8 29.4 33.7 36.5 39.6 43.0 Rosharon 43.0 18.9 20.9 24.7 29.3 31.4 35.6 38.5 41.5 45.9 West Columbia 23.0 5.6 7.1 9.7 13.2 14.9 18.8 21.5 23.6 25.7 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018016305#### FGUS73 KFGF 151708 ESFFGF MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125- 135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077- 081-091-095-097-099-281200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND 1108 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... ...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL... This outlook covers the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries. ...RISK OF FLOODING HEADLINE... * This 90-day outlook covers the period from 2/19/2024 to 5/19/2024. .OUTLOOK SUMMARY... * Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage... Major Flooding... There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of major flooding across the basin. Moderate Flooding... There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of moderate flooding at Fargo/Moorhead and Oslo on the Red River. In North Dakota, there is a medium risk of moderate flooding at Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River. There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of moderate flooding elsewhere across the basin. Minor Flooding... There is a high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of minor flooding at Fargo/Moorhead, Grand Forks/East Grand Forks, and Oslo on the Red River. In North Dakota, there is a high risk of minor flooding at Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River. In Minnesota, there is a high risk of minor flooding at Dilworth on the Buffalo River. There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of minor flooding at Wahpeton, Halstad, Drayton, and Pembina on the Red River. In North Dakota, there is a medium risk of minor flooding at Mapleton on the Maple River. In Minnesota, there is a medium risk of minor flooding at Sabin on the South Branch Buffalo River, Hendrum on the Wild Rice River, and Hallock on the Two Rivers River. There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of minor flooding elsewhere across the basin. .OUTLOOK DISCUSSION... Hydrologic and climate conditions which affect each of the several factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are discussed below: * FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE... Overall both fall and winter precipitation have been below normal for much of the basin. Soil moisture remains much lower than normal across the northern third of the basin with moderate to severe drought conditions while near average elsewhere. * RIVER FLOWS... At the end of December, base streamflows were flowing near to slightly higher than normal on the Red River mainstem and its tributaries. * FROST DEPTHS... January cold formed a deeper frost layer across much of the basin. However, early February warmth allowed for some thawing to begin, especially in the south. Lake/river observations indicate ice cover is thinner and less consistent than normal due to mild temperatures. * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS... The current snowpack and associated water content is much below normal. Since December 1, 2023, snowfall has been running roughly 10 to 50 percent of normal, lowest across the southern two-thirds of the basin. Little to no snow cover (and associated water content) remains in place with the exception of near the international border. * FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED... - Further snowpack growth, - Rate of snowmelt/thaw, - Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood, - Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams. * SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST... Dry conditions with overall above above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the remainder of February. * LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK... Climate outlooks indicate above normal temperatures into spring. This will allow for early melting of any remaining snowpack and introduce the possibility of rain instead of snow through early spring. .NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... The next 2024 spring flood outlook will be issued on Thursday, February 29, 2024. .FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES... The following message has two sections: the first gives the current and normal/historical chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate, and major flood category. The second gives the current chances of river locations rising above river stages listed. ...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category... Valid from February 19, 2024 to May 19, 2024 In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal, probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical, or normal, conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- --- Red River of the North..... WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 64 59 25 30 <5 17 HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 21 27 <5 13 <5 <5 FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : >95 83 46 40 25 26 HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 44 38 17 21 <5 12 GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 65 57 21 30 <5 11 OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : 74 63 64 56 6 18 DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 50 46 26 32 <5 12 PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : 53 52 30 43 5 22 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- --- Minnesota Tributaries..... Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow through its diversion SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : 54 60 11 17 <5 <5 HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 28 39 12 25 <5 <5 DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : 75 69 16 21 <5 <5 TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 10 17 <5 8 <5 <5 HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 60 51 14 21 <5 7 SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 18 28 <5 11 <5 6 CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 11 23 <5 12 <5 8 HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 12 <5 9 <5 7 CROOKSTON 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 32 48 7 24 <5 9 ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : 5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 24 23 7 16 <5 <5 HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 50 62 15 39 <5 10 ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 21 <5 13 <5 8 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- --- North Dakota Tributaries..... ABERCROMBIE 20.0 22.0 28.0 : 71 42 55 34 16 19 VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 6 LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 11 <5 10 <5 7 KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 8 20 5 11 <5 10 WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : 5 12 <5 11 <5 10 HARWOOD 84.0 86.0 91.0 : 27 26 20 21 7 10 ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 34 26 8 11 <5 <5 MAPLETON 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 56 35 22 17 <5 5 HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 14 19 <5 10 <5 <5 MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : 9 24 <5 7 <5 <5 WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 27 <5 26 <5 20 LEGEND: CS = Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions) HS = Historical Simulation ( " " normal conditions) FT = Feet (above gage zero datum) ...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage... Valid from February 19, 2024 to May 19, 2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Red River of the North..... WAHPETON 8.5 9.7 10.6 11.6 13.0 14.4 14.9 HICKSON 15.7 17.0 20.4 23.7 28.8 32.1 32.9 FARGO 18.2 19.2 21.1 24.7 30.1 33.3 35.0 HALSTAD 14.5 15.6 18.2 24.7 29.1 34.8 37.0 GRAND FORKS 20.5 21.1 23.0 33.3 37.8 42.1 45.2 OSLO 18.4 19.6 22.8 33.0 34.4 35.4 36.8 DRAYTON 19.8 20.5 23.7 32.1 38.1 40.1 41.3 PEMBINA 26.0 26.7 32.6 39.1 45.8 48.0 49.8 Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ South Fork Buffalo River..... SABIN 10.1 10.8 12.1 13.2 14.2 15.3 15.5 Buffalo River..... HAWLEY 5.7 5.8 6.4 7.4 8.2 9.2 9.8 DILWORTH 10.3 11.3 13.0 16.6 18.4 21.0 21.8 Wild Rice River..... TWIN VALLEY 4.2 4.5 5.1 6.5 7.5 9.7 10.7 HENDRUM 12.6 13.9 16.5 21.7 25.3 29.2 30.0 Marsh River..... SHELLY 6.2 6.3 7.7 9.4 11.7 16.1 19.4 Sand Hill River..... CLIMAX 7.6 7.7 9.0 11.8 16.0 20.8 24.1 Red Lake River..... HIGH LANDING 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.7 6.7 8.7 9.3 CROOKSTON 8.7 9.0 10.5 12.9 15.6 18.3 21.3 Snake River..... ABOVE WARREN 62.7 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.7 66.0 67.2 ALVARADO 99.4 99.8 100.6 102.7 105.9 107.5 109.1 Two Rivers River..... HALLOCK 797.2 798.3 800.1 802.1 804.5 807.5 807.9 Roseau River..... considering the flow through the Roseau diversion ROSEAU 7.9 8.2 9.1 10.4 11.9 14.5 15.7 North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Wild Rice River..... ABERCROMBIE 16.2 16.4 19.8 22.9 27.2 29.4 31.9 Sheyenne River..... VALLEY CITY 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.5 8.9 11.5 12.2 LISBON 4.3 4.8 5.8 6.9 8.6 11.1 12.9 KINDRED 6.5 6.8 7.9 9.5 11.7 14.8 19.1 WEST FARGO DVRSN 9.1 9.6 10.8 10.9 13.0 15.1 18.6 HARWOOD 74.6 75.6 77.1 79.9 84.4 89.8 91.6 Maple River..... ENDERLIN 5.2 6.0 6.9 8.2 9.7 11.2 12.8 MAPLETON 12.7 13.1 15.9 19.1 20.8 21.9 22.6 Goose River..... HILLSBORO 3.5 3.6 4.3 5.5 7.5 10.5 12.2 Forest River..... MINTO 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.0 4.2 5.9 6.9 Pembina River..... WALHALLA 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.7 7.9 NECHE 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.9 9.2 13.1 15.5 .THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS... This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river levels and soil conditions using 69 years (1949-2018) of past precipitation and temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then be ranked from lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance probability. For example, for a series of 50 years, the lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability of exceedance (POE). A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4 The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during the valid period of the outlook. By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is contributing to the area's Decision Support Services that help with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook is a part of NOAA's National Weather Service's AHPS (Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services). .ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES... The AHPS Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued each month typically between the first and second Friday after mid-month. However, Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks are issued several times leading up to the spring melt period, usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions. This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the period. These graphs, along with explanations for interpreting them, are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page: www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" tab above the map. Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake basins are also available on our website, as well as 7-day forecasts when river levels at forecast points are in or near flood. Additional Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as conditions warrant. Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook for Devils and Stump Lakes Probability of Exceedance levels and low-water non-exceedance levels. If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720. You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks. $$ www.weather.gov/fgf NNNN ####018002335#### FGUS74 KOUN 151708 ESFOUN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-160508- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Norman OK 1108 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Brazos River Basin in Western North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Norman Oklahoma has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in western north Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River at Seymour has a flood stage of 12 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Seymour forecast point will rise above 5.1 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 02/14/2024 - 05/14/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Brazos River Seymour 12.0 2.3 2.3 3.2 3.9 5.1 5.8 6.7 7.6 12.8 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Miller Creek Millers Cr Lk 1340.0 1326.1 1326.5 1326.9 1327.2 1327.5 40% 30% 20% 10% ------ ------ ------ ------ 1327.7 1328.9 1330.3 1332.6 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oun Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$