####018013518#### FGUS73 KMKX 151718 ESFMKX PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1118 AM CST THU FEB 15 2024 ...Spring Flood Outlook... The risk of spring flooding is average to below average across southern Wisconsin. Basins with below average risk include: The lower Wisconsin, Baraboo, Pecatonica, Sugar, Upper Fox, and Sheboygan. Basins with near to below average risk include: The Crawfish, Rock, and Turtle Creek. Basins with near average risk include: Lower Fox, Root, Cedar Creek, and Milwaukee. Flooding is still possible, but the underlying risk is not elevated at this time. The greatest potential for flooding will be tied to heavy rain. ...Flood Outlook Factors... Despite the lack of a snowpack, precipitation for the winter months has been average to above average. Precipitation since December 1 is 75-125 percent of normal across most of southern Wisconsin and 125- 150 percent of normal in far southeast Wisconsin. Since January 1 these values are 100-150 percent of normal. Due to the mild temperatures, most of the precipitation has been in the form of rain and not snow. Almost all of the snow from early to mid Janurary has melted. As a result, streamflows are above normal. Streamflow values averaged over the past 14 days are in the 60-90th percentile. The lack of a snowpack, offset by the average to above average precipitation and above average streamflow, results in the average to below average flood risk. In southeast Wisconsin, streamflows exceed the 90th percentile in some locations, contributing to the near average flood risk. Soil moisture is near average across south-central and southeast Wisconsin and below average across southern Wisconsin. The summmer drought is still having some influce on soil moisture, especially in southwest and south-central Wisconsin. Most frost depth sensors in southern Wisconsin are reporting no frost. This means there is greater potential for precipitation and melting snow to soak into the ground, lowering the flood risk. River are mainly ice free, so the ice jam risk is low. However some lakes are still ice covered so ice may make its way downstream and could cause some jam issues. Little precipitation is expected over the next week. The outlook for late February indicates enhanced odds of above average temperature and equal chances of above, near and below average precipitation. The outlook for March-April-May indicates enhances odds of above average temperature and equal chances of above, near and below average precipitation. ...Probabilistic Forecast Information for River Forecast Points... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Rock River Watertown 5.5 6.0 6.5 : 7 14 <5 10 <5 5 :Crawfish River Milford 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 20 35 <5 8 <5 6 :Rock River Jefferson 10.0 11.0 13.0 : 23 36 14 25 <5 6 Fort Atkinson 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 10 17 <5 7 <5 <5 Lake Koshkonong 10.0 11.0 11.5 : 32 42 18 30 14 23 Afton 9.0 11.1 12.2 : 32 41 10 16 <5 8 :Turtle Creek Clinton 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 9 14 <5 6 <5 <5 Beloit 7.5 10.5 12.5 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Darlington 13.5 15.0 16.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 7 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Martintown 13.5 18.0 21.0 : 13 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sugar River Albany 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Brodhead 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 23 41 <5 10 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 16.0 17.6 18.9 : 9 26 <5 14 <5 7 Portage 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 34 71 21 52 6 26 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 39 43 19 30 5 11 Rock Springs 18.5 21.0 23.0 : 20 33 12 26 <5 6 West Baraboo 9.0 10.5 12.5 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Baraboo 16.0 22.0 23.1 : 23 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 5.5 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fox River Princeton 9.5 11.0 12.0 : 7 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 Berlin 13.0 14.5 16.0 : 15 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 17 30 6 7 <5 <5 :Root River Franklin 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 21 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River Canal Raymond 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 21 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River Racine 7.0 7.5 8.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 27 38 5 8 <5 <5 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 8 12 <5 6 <5 <5 Burlington 11.0 12.0 14.0 : 15 22 5 14 <5 <5 New Munster 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 71 69 24 30 6 18 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Rock River Watertown 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.9 :Crawfish River Milford 3.3 3.5 4.3 5.5 6.5 8.0 8.5 :Rock River Jefferson 6.1 6.1 6.8 7.9 9.8 11.3 12.2 Fort Atkinson 12.6 12.7 13.1 13.8 14.9 16.0 16.7 Lake Koshkonong 7.4 7.5 8.1 9.2 10.4 11.9 12.6 Afton 6.2 6.2 7.0 8.2 9.5 11.2 12.1 :Turtle Creek Clinton 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.7 6.4 7.8 9.1 Beloit 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.3 6.0 7.1 8.5 :Pecatonica River Darlington 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.5 7.6 9.7 11.5 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 5.8 6.1 6.8 8.3 9.9 10.9 12.0 :Pecatonica River Martintown 7.1 7.3 8.1 10.1 12.2 13.9 14.7 :Sugar River Albany 4.8 5.1 5.8 7.0 8.3 9.7 10.5 Brodhead 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.8 7.1 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 5.5 6.5 8.3 10.6 12.7 15.5 16.6 Portage 11.8 12.4 13.4 16.0 17.4 18.4 19.0 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 8.3 9.2 11.1 13.2 15.0 17.0 18.1 Rock Springs 11.0 11.6 13.3 15.7 18.0 21.5 22.2 West Baraboo 3.2 3.6 4.5 5.3 6.1 7.7 8.3 Baraboo 9.6 10.3 12.4 14.3 15.8 18.1 18.9 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.5 :Fox River Princeton 5.7 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.3 10.1 Berlin 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.0 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 3.7 4.4 5.1 6.2 7.5 8.6 10.5 :Root River Franklin 4.6 5.7 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.4 8.8 :Root River Canal Raymond 4.2 4.8 6.5 7.5 8.8 10.1 10.5 :Root River Racine 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.8 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 6.7 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.8 9.3 9.8 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 7.7 8.0 8.8 9.8 11.1 12.1 13.2 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.7 7.8 Burlington 7.9 8.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.4 12.1 New Munster 9.2 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.0 13.8 14.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Rock River Watertown 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 :Crawfish River Milford 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Rock River Jefferson 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.9 Fort Atkinson 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.9 Lake Koshkonong 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 Afton 5.9 5.7 5.6 4.4 3.7 2.7 2.6 :Turtle Creek Clinton 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 Beloit 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 :Pecatonica River Darlington 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 :Pecatonica River Martintown 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.4 :Sugar River Albany 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 Brodhead 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 Portage 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 Rock Springs 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 West Baraboo 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Baraboo 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Fox River Princeton 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 Berlin 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Root River Franklin 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Root River Canal Raymond 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 :Root River Racine 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 Burlington 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 New Munster 7.7 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.3 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/mkx for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued Feb 29, 2024. Marquardt $$