####018002953#### FGUS74 KEWX 151826 ESFEWX TXC019-029-175-187-255-325-493-161224- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1225 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the San Antonio River Basin in South Central Texas... The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the San Antonio River Basin in South Central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate The chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The San Antonio River at Elmendorf has a flood stage of 35 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Elmendorf forecast point will rise above 30.2 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 02/14/2024 - 05/14/2024 Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Medina River Bandera 13.0 3.6 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.9 10.0 La Coste 15.0 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.3 9.7 Somerset 18.0 4.9 5.1 6.5 7.8 10.2 10.8 12.0 13.5 16.1 US hwy 281 20.0 3.9 5.2 6.1 7.9 9.1 11.5 15.7 18.4 21.2 Leon Creek I-35 15.0 4.0 4.9 6.6 7.6 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.8 10.9 Salado Creek Loop 13 18.0 6.2 6.5 7.1 8.6 10.0 10.5 12.2 14.0 15.5 San Antonio River Elmendorf 35.0 14.6 16.6 22.4 25.4 30.2 31.7 34.2 36.6 37.7 Floresville 27.0 8.0 11.5 14.5 17.2 20.7 21.5 24.0 27.5 30.4 Falls City 12.0 2.0 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.3 6.2 7.3 Runge at Hwy 72 27.0 12.7 16.2 18.1 20.8 22.2 23.6 26.5 28.6 30.6 Cibolo Creek Selma 17.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.8 Sutherland Spgs 21.0 7.1 7.8 9.6 12.1 12.8 13.1 14.6 16.1 18.0 nr Falls City 17.0 1.1 2.5 4.4 5.9 6.2 7.7 9.7 13.1 16.5 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ewx Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$