####018003813#### FGUS71 KCLE 151903 ESFCLE OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101- 103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049- 221915- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...FLOOD THREAT IS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FEBRUARY FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER WATERSHEDS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... This is the fourth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks through early spring describing the potential for flooding across central and northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rivers in the region are divided by those that drain north into Lake Erie, and those that drain south into the Ohio River. These outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions, including snowpack and projected rainfall, which can either favor an above, average, or below normal flood risk over the coming two weeks. Flooding could occur with water levels having minor impacts even with a below normal outlook. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from February 15th to February 29th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... Aside from trace amounts in the higher elevations of northwest Pennsylvania, no snow pack currently exists across the region. ...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow averages across the region were normal to above normal across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Streamflow values were generally in the 50th to 80th percentile over the past four weeks, largely due to high flows throughout the last week of January from widespread rainfall and snow melt. However, current streamflows are in the below to near normal range, generally in the 20th to 35th percentile, due to recent lack of precipitation. Soil moisture conditions were generally below normal across the area, with values near or slightly above normal for the snowbelt region of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. ...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS... No ice is present on area rivers and streams. ...WATER SUPPLY... The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reservoirs were near normal winter pool elevations. Reservoir storage capacity is generally 90% to 100% at the projects. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... For the 6 to 10 day (Feb 20 to 24) and 8 to 14 day (Feb 22 to 28) outlook periods, above normal temperatures are favored for the region. Chances are leaning towards near normal precipitation in the 6 to 10 day period, while chances are leaning towards above normal precipitation in the 8 to 14 day period. The latest seasonal outlooks for March through May favor above normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation across the region. ...SUMMARY... The threat for flooding over the next two weeks is below normal for this time of year. It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at any time. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=CLE. Observed and 5 day forecast river information can be found on our web page at www.weather.gov/cleveland. Ten day streamflow ensemble forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. The fifth Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday, February 29th. $$ For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at www.weather.gov/cleveland and follow us on social media $$ Greenawalt ####018023726#### FGUS73 KDVN 151903 ESFDVN IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113- 115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177- 187-195-MOC045-199-151800- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1248 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 .2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook 1... ...Near to Below Normal Flood Risk This Spring... This is the first update of the three planned Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlooks for 2024 for the Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), which covers portions of eastern Iowa, northwest and west central Illinois, and extreme northeast Missouri. Rivers included in this outlook are the Mississippi River and its tributaries from above Dubuque, Iowa to below Gregory Landing, Missouri. The primary tributary systems include the Maquoketa, Wapsipinicon, Cedar, English, Iowa, Skunk, North Skunk, and Des Moines Rivers in Iowa; the Fox River in Missouri; and the Pecatonica, Rock, and Green Rivers in Illinois, as well as the La Moine River in Illinois. This outlook is for the time period from late February through late May. .Flood Outlook Overview... The spring flood risk is below normal for the Mississippi River, and near to below Normal for local tributary rivers across the NWS Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area. Some factors contributing to the current risk levels include: 1) Lack of a snowpack in the local area or in the headwater areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin. 2) Normal to below normal soil moisture levels in the local area will provide more potential storage for spring rains. 3) Lack of hard frozen soils in the local area or in the headwater areas to the north. 4) Local streams are currently flowing at or slightly above the normal level. .Key Takeaways… * Even though the overall risk of spring flooding is near to below average in the NWS Quad Cities HSA, this does not guarantee that high impact flooding will not occur. The severity of any flooding will be determined primarily by changes in the key factors mentioned above. In addition, we will be monitoring the outlooks for spring precipitation to see if that could become a contributing factor this year. * Current snow cover and snow water equivalent are well below normal across much of the local area, which decreased the overall flood threat. In addition the snow water equivalent in the headwaters of the upper Mississippi River basin are well below normal, which will further decrease our likelihood of major impacts on the Mississippi River. * Widespread normal to below normal soil moisture levels in the local area increases the capacity of the soils to soak in spring precipitation and which will significantly mitigate the near term flood risk as well as decrease the risk for prolonged flooding. We will continue to monitor soil moisture conditions as they have begun to moisten over the past months. * A significant snow melt occurred locally at the beginning of February and caused flood concerns across parts of western Illinois. This snow melt contributed to moistening the sols and raising river levels through the Quad Cities’ HSA, which contributes to an increase in risk along area waterways. If forecasted warmer and drier conditions persist throughout the rest of February, this will likely mitigate much of that threat increase, reducing our spring flood threat further in future outlooks. Many factors are considered when determining the overall flood risk for the upcoming spring season. A combination of these are factored into the final threat categorization. These factors are discussed in detail below, and are categorized as an increased, neutral, or decreased contributor to potential spring flooding. .Seasonal Precipitation: Local Rivers - Neutral to Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Neutral to Decreased Threat Precipitation in eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri has actually averaged around to above normal so far this winter. However, much of the Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), especially eastern Iowa, remains in some level of drought due to well below normal precipitation observed from the fall months in 2023. This is also well reflected in soil moisture levels (see below). North of the area, precipitation in the upper Mississippi River Basin so far this winter has averaged below normal. Latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center favor below normal precipitation for the remainder of February into April for much, if not all, of the Mississippi River Basin. With all of this in mind, any contributions from seasonal precipitation to spring flood threat will be minimal. .Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content: Local Rivers - Decreased to Neutral Threat Mississippi River - Decreased to Neutral Threat While snowfall has averaged above normal this winter for much of the HSA, several prolonged warm spells (where high temperatures have climbed into the 50s/60s) quickly melted the snowpack. A fast moving storm system has brought recent snowfall of 2 to 5 inches to portions of the Upper Mississippi Basin, however much of the Mississippi River Basin and all of the area tributaries are completely free of snow cover per the latest analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). .Soil Conditions: Local Rivers - Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Decreased Threat Despite above normal precipitation values so far this winter, soil moisture levels remain below normal due to an extremely dry Fall. Latest analysis from the Climate Prediction Center shows soil moisture ranking profiles around 10-30% for the majority of the HSA, and also includes much of the upper Mississippi River Basin. This favors a decreased to neutral threat from this category for spring flooding, as drier soils will be better suited to soak in heavier rains or snow melts. .Frost Depth: Local Rivers - Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Decreased Threat Little to no frost depth is being observed across eastern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west central to northwest Illinois due to generally above normal temperatures this winter. A week of Arctic cold did grip the region during the middle of January, but a pre- existing deep snow cover was able to insulate the ground and prevent deeper frost depths from occurring. There are some locations with deeper frozen ground from around 5 to 17 inches in the Upper Mississippi Basin, but overall frost depths are below normal and will not contribute to a higher flood risk. .River Conditions: Local Rivers - Neutral to Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Neutral to Decreased Threat Streamflow analysis from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates the majority of the Upper Mississippi River watershed streamflows are near to above normal. The significance of the normal to above average streamflows to flood risk is that a river with higher water levels doesn’t have as much capacity to hold higher amounts of runoff. .Ice Jam Flooding: Local Rivers - Decreased Threat for Breakup Jams Mississippi River - Decreased Threat for Breakup Jams The warmer weather this winter has largely limited the development of thick river ice. Although a period of colder temperatures in mid- January followed by a long duration of above freezing temperatures did cause some break-up ice jam impacts on the Rock River, all rivers are free of ice cover heading into mid-February. Colder air will likely return yet this winter, so ice development and build-up is still possible. However, without a long period of extreme cold, the risk for development of thick river ice will be low. This keeps the risk for spring break-up ice jams low. .Weather/Climate Outlooks: Local Rivers - Neutral Threat Mississippi River - Neutral Threat While active weather patterns are typical of the spring months, this could lead to variations of warmer and colder temperatures, where the risk for flooding will be determined by the tracks of individual and multiple storm systems that could bring heavy rain or heavy snow to parts of the region. According to the latest climate outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, probabilities are leaning toward a continuation of above normal temperatures for much of the region into late February. Meanwhile, for precipitation into late February there is no strong signal with equal chances for either above, near or below normal precipitation. The three month outlook for March through May is leaning toward a continuation of above normal temperatures for much of the region, with equal chances for either above, near or below normal precipitation. .Summary: The spring flood risk is below normal for the Mississippi River, and near to below normal for local tributary rivers across the NWS Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area. The flood risk will be assessed 2 more times this spring. Current snow cover and snow water equivalent is significantly lower than average in both the local area and the headwater areas of the Mississippi basin. Large snow events in the local area led to a large snowpack during January, but warm temperatures in late January and early February led to a snowmelt that moistened soils and runoff. Snow runoff and ice break up led to some minor flooding in western Illinois, leaving current conditions unfavorable for snowmelt or ice jam flooding on local tributaries. Some factors contributing to the current risk levels include: 1) Lack of deep and widespread snowpack in the local area and the headwater areas of the Mississippi River basin. 2) A general lack of deep, hard frozen ground across the upper Mississippi River Basin. 3) Near to above average stream flows and near to slightly below average soil moisture levels . .Numerical Probabilistic River Outlooks... This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water and the final part for low water. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : 20 48 16 38 <5 12 Dubuque 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 22 53 20 45 <5 15 Bellevue LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : 14 37 11 32 <5 12 Fulton LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 21 53 13 35 <5 14 Camanche 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 20 44 13 35 <5 14 Le Claire LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 20 51 15 37 9 18 Rock Island LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 30 59 20 50 12 27 Ill. City LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 27 56 20 48 13 25 Muscatine 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 33 59 20 48 13 25 New Boston LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 38 61 21 50 15 31 Keithsburg 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 37 62 23 50 12 28 Gladstone LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 37 63 19 47 11 24 Burlington 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 36 61 19 48 11 28 Keokuk LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 14 32 11 21 7 12 Gregory Landing 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 41 63 16 42 <5 <5 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 16 22 8 15 <5 6 Maquoketa 24.0 26.0 28.5 : 5 19 <5 16 <5 6 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 Anamosa Shaw Rd 14.5 18.0 21.5 : 15 24 8 12 <5 <5 De Witt 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : 68 71 59 65 28 43 :North Skunk River Sigourney 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 44 57 28 41 7 13 :Skunk River Augusta 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 40 41 23 28 8 14 :Cedar River Vinton 15.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 16 <5 5 <5 <5 Palo Blairs Ferry 12.5 15.5 17.0 : 5 27 <5 5 <5 <5 Cedar Rapids 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 6 33 <5 15 <5 8 Cedar Bluff 16.0 20.0 26.0 : 6 32 <5 8 <5 <5 Conesville 13.0 15.0 16.5 : 24 55 <5 15 <5 6 :Iowa River Marengo 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 39 71 21 45 <5 6 Iowa City 23.5 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lone Tree 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 23 33 5 7 <5 <5 Columbus Jct 23.0 25.0 26.5 : 6 18 <5 6 <5 <5 Wapello 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 24 53 <5 7 <5 <5 Oakville 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 13 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 :English River Kalona 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 45 55 22 33 10 15 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 6 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 St Francisville 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 20 36 6 7 <5 <5 :Fox River Wayland 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 23 22 9 10 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Freeport 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 11 21 <5 10 <5 <5 :Rock River Como 12.5 15.5 18.0 : 14 25 <5 11 <5 <5 Joslin 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 60 56 28 33 8 19 Moline 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 54 53 28 32 17 26 :Green River Geneseo 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 22 27 11 13 <5 <5 :La Moine River Colmar 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 67 63 46 44 22 18 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 7.2 8.1 9.7 11.7 14.8 19.0 19.6 Dubuque 9.6 10.3 11.6 13.6 16.7 20.7 21.3 Bellevue LD12 8.1 9.0 10.4 12.3 15.0 18.5 19.1 Fulton LD13 7.8 8.6 10.3 12.1 15.1 19.2 19.9 Camanche 10.4 11.0 12.2 13.3 15.7 19.7 20.5 Le Claire LD14 6.3 6.7 7.8 8.9 10.4 13.4 14.2 Rock Island LD15 8.7 9.4 11.0 12.3 15.3 18.3 19.4 Ill. City LD16 7.2 8.1 10.1 12.0 15.1 18.1 19.6 Muscatine 8.9 9.9 11.7 13.5 16.8 20.1 21.3 New Boston LD17 8.7 9.7 11.7 13.4 16.1 19.3 20.6 Keithsburg 9.4 9.9 11.5 12.7 15.0 18.0 18.7 Gladstone LD18 4.6 5.2 7.3 8.8 11.2 14.6 15.5 Burlington 10.5 10.9 12.5 13.8 15.8 18.8 19.7 Keokuk LD19 6.5 7.4 9.3 10.8 13.9 18.0 19.5 Gregory Landing 8.0 9.0 11.6 13.8 16.6 20.2 22.3 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 5.9 6.3 7.3 8.4 10.7 16.3 19.3 Maquoketa 11.8 12.6 13.7 15.5 17.9 22.5 25.2 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 5.4 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.2 10.7 12.6 Anamosa Shaw Rd 6.0 7.4 8.5 10.3 12.3 16.7 18.9 De Witt 4S 8.6 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.7 13.3 13.6 :North Skunk River Sigourney 5.5 9.6 13.2 15.4 19.1 20.2 22.0 :Skunk River Augusta 4.7 5.8 9.1 12.7 16.2 19.1 23.3 :Cedar River Vinton 3.5 4.2 6.2 8.8 11.4 13.3 14.7 Palo Blairs Ferry 3.3 4.1 5.8 8.0 10.3 11.7 12.9 Cedar Rapids 3.7 4.1 4.9 6.5 9.2 11.3 13.4 Cedar Bluff 5.8 6.3 8.2 10.1 12.9 14.9 17.6 Conesville 7.0 7.5 9.3 10.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 :Iowa River Marengo 7.3 8.8 10.9 13.4 16.7 18.0 18.4 Iowa City 10.3 11.5 13.3 15.2 19.0 19.7 20.4 Lone Tree 6.2 8.3 10.4 12.6 15.4 17.7 18.6 Columbus Jct 10.7 12.6 14.1 16.0 18.7 22.1 23.1 Wapello 13.2 15.2 16.8 18.3 20.5 22.8 23.8 Oakville 2.3 3.8 5.3 6.8 9.1 11.6 12.6 :English River Kalona 7.1 8.2 12.3 13.6 15.8 18.0 19.6 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 11.5 14.0 16.1 17.9 19.1 20.9 22.9 St Francisville 8.3 11.5 13.9 15.8 17.6 20.1 23.5 :Fox River Wayland 5.2 5.7 8.9 11.7 14.4 17.8 19.0 :Pecatonica River Freeport 7.0 7.8 8.6 10.8 12.2 13.0 13.7 :Rock River Como 6.4 6.7 7.5 9.7 11.3 12.9 15.1 Joslin 9.1 9.7 10.5 12.6 14.4 16.0 18.8 Moline 9.9 10.3 11.0 12.2 13.6 14.5 17.7 :Green River Geneseo 6.2 6.8 10.1 12.0 14.7 16.7 18.0 :La Moine River Colmar 10.3 13.1 17.9 21.6 23.8 25.2 26.3 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 5.7 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 Dubuque 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.4 Bellevue LD12 5.8 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 Fulton LD13 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 Camanche 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.7 Le Claire LD14 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 Rock Island LD15 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.4 Ill. City LD16 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 Muscatine 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 New Boston LD17 5.8 5.5 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.5 Keithsburg 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 Gladstone LD18 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 Burlington 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.6 Keokuk LD19 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.4 Gregory Landing 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.3 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 Maquoketa 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 Anamosa Shaw Rd 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 De Witt 4S 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.7 :North Skunk River Sigourney 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 :Skunk River Augusta 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 :Cedar River Vinton 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 Palo Blairs Ferry 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 Cedar Rapids 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Cedar Bluff 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 Conesville 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 :Iowa River Marengo 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 Iowa City 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.1 Lone Tree 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 Columbus Jct 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 Wapello 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.1 Oakville 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 :English River Kalona 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 St Francisville 6.9 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.3 :Fox River Wayland 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 :Pecatonica River Freeport 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.2 4.1 :Rock River Como 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.3 Joslin 7.8 7.6 7.2 6.5 5.7 5.2 4.9 Moline 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 :Green River Geneseo 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 :La Moine River Colmar 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on 29 February 2024. $$