####018005530#### FGUS71 KALY 152017 ESFALY CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095- 111-113-115-VTC003-025-222030- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 317 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Flood threat is near to below normal for the next two weeks... The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Western Adirondacks, as well as the Lake George/Saratoga Region and portions of the lower Hudson Valley, where there is a bit of snow pack and snow water equivalent in place. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered to be below normal. As a whole, warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the beginning of February have kept the snowpack and snow water equivalent below to much below normal for this time of year. While the flood potential is near to below normal for the outlook period, a wetter trend toward the end of the outlook period is possible. Due to lack of river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat. A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does not address the potential for ice jam flooding. This is the fourth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson, Mohawk and Housatonic. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from February 15th through the 29th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... Snow depth and snow water equivalent are both well below normal across the ALY CWA. Snowpack in the higher terrain of the Western Adirondacks has about 9 to 12 inches of depth with liquid equivalents of 2 to 4 inches with isolated pockets of 4 to 5 inches. The upper Lake George region has about 5 to 7 inches of snow depth with a widespread liquid equivalent of 2 to 4 inches. The northern edge of the Mohawk Valley is carrying about 1 to 1.5 inches of depth with generally a Trace up to 2” of SWE. The Capital Region has no snowpack. Eastern Catskills has about 0 to 1” of snow on the ground with a Trace to 0.5” of SWE. The Mid- Hudson Valley/Taconics/Dutchess County is carrying about 4 to 8 inches of snow depth from the most recent snowfall event with a 0.5” to 1” liquid equivalent. ...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York are generally above normal to much above normal. Per USGS monitoring wells, groundwater levels are normal or above normal. Palmer drought severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire outlook area. New York State Mesonet observations show soil temperatures above freezing at all depths. ...WATER SUPPLY... New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water supply reservoir levels are above normal for this time of year. Wet conditions over the past month have kept system storage well above normal. Total storage is currently at 96.6 percent of capacity, or 6.7 percent above normal capacity for this time of year. Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels are a mixture of above and below normal for this time of year. The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 15 feet above normal for this time of year. Elsewhere in the District, reservoir levels were within 2 feet of normal. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... The 6 to 10 day (for February 20 to 24) and 8 to 14 day (for February 22 to 28) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks both call for above normal precipitation, becoming more widespread in the 8 to 14 day window. Temperature trends begin in the near normal category in the 6 to 10 day outlook and begin to lean towards above normal range for temperatures in the 8 to 14 day outlook. ...SUMMARY... The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Western Adirondacks, as well as the Lake George/Saratoga Region and portions of the lower Hudson Valley, where there is a bit of snow pack and snow water equivalent in place. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered to be below normal. As a whole, warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the beginning of February have kept the snowpack and snow water equivalent below to much below normal for this time of year. While the flood potential is near to below normal for the outlook period, a wetter trend toward the end of the outlook period is possible. Due to lack of river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Flooding can happen at any time of year - stay informed at www.weather.gov/albany and follow us on Twitter @NWSAlbany $$ dm