####018007145#### FGUS73 KDLH 152037 ESFDLH MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031- 051-099-113-129-DDHHMM- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Duluth MN 229 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Prairie River Taconite 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River Aitkin 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 26 50 8 28 <5 7 Fort Ripley 10.5 12.5 26.0 : 22 39 <5 15 <5 <5 :St. Croix River Danbury 7.0 8.5 10.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River Pine City 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5 :St. Louis River Scanlon 10.5 11.0 13.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Nemadji River Nemadji R nr Supe 24.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Tyler Forks Mellen 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 18 34 10 24 <5 5 :Bad River Odanah 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Odanah 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Kawishiwi Ely 6.5 7.5 8.5 : <5 24 <5 9 <5 <5 :Little Fork River Littefork 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Vermillion River Crane Lake 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Prairie River Taconite 4.2 4.5 5.2 6.3 7.0 8.1 8.5 :Mississippi River Aitkin 8.4 8.6 9.2 11.2 13.1 14.7 15.4 Fort Ripley 6.4 6.9 7.6 8.6 10.3 11.0 12.1 :St. Croix River Danbury 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.2 5.8 6.4 :Snake River Pine City 4.5 4.8 5.5 6.0 7.1 8.2 8.6 :St. Louis River Scanlon 5.2 5.4 6.2 7.0 7.9 8.7 9.8 :Nemadji River Nemadji R nr Supe 9.3 11.0 12.8 14.8 18.6 22.2 22.8 :Tyler Forks Mellen 5.3 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 10.0 10.8 :Bad River Odanah 4.9 5.2 6.2 7.0 8.4 11.6 12.9 Odanah 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.6 7.1 7.7 :South Kawishiwi River Ely 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.2 :Little Fork River Littefork 4.9 5.3 5.8 7.0 8.8 11.0 12.4 :Vermillion River Crane Lake 8.0 8.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 12.6 13.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Prairie River Taconite 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 :Mississippi River Aitkin 6.7 6.6 5.8 5.1 3.7 2.9 2.5 Fort Ripley 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.8 :St. Croix River Danbury 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 :Snake River Pine City 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 :St. Louis River Scanlon 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 :Nemadji River Nemadji R nr Supe 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 :Tyler Forks Mellen 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 :Bad River Odanah 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Odanah 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 :South Kawishiwi River Ely 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 :Little Fork River Littefork 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 :Vermillion River Crane Lake 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/dlh for more weather and water information. For additional information on stream flow conditions for USGS locations please reference https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov For additional information on stream flow conditions at MNDNR sites www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters/csg/index.html or www.climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp For more information on climate outlooks reference www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov The next outlook will be issued on February 29th, 2024. $$