####018013326#### FGUS75 KGJT 152050 ESFGJT COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103- 107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-222100- Water Supply Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 150 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH ISSUANCE NUMBER 1... ...Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)... The Grand Junction HSA falls almost entirely within the Upper Colorado River Basin, and provides a population of over 40 million people with water across the southwestern US. The area encompasses seven basins including; the Upper Green River Basin and the Duchesne River Basin in eastern Utah, and the Yampa and White River Basins, Upper Colorado River Mainstem, Gunnison River Basin, Dolores and San Miguel River Basins, and the Upper San Juan River Basin in western Colorado. Each river and their tributaries feed the Colorado River above Lake Powell, and are primarily fed by snowpack accumulation (typically) from November - April. As the snow melts in the spring, the Upper Colorado River Basin begins to fill lakes, rivers, streams, reservoirs and trans-basin diversions from Denver to Los Angeles. Thus, seasonal water supply and resource outlooks across the Grand Junction HSA are crucial to water management during the late winter and early spring, in order to support various sectors including hydropower, agriculture, recreation, and municipal uses that in turn support the needs of a vast population. ...Water Supply Outlooks Summary/Key Messages... The potential for spring flooding due to snowmelt is low at this time, and season water supply volumes remain below to near normal for the Upper Colorado River Basin. Water supply guidance as a percentage of average (as of February 14th) for the April through July runoff period are listed below: Yampa/White 75-95% Upper CO Mainstem 80-115% Gunnison 65-95% Dolores 65-80% San Juan 65-85% Upper Green 65-90% Duchesne 75-105% Forecast volumes, attm, are expected to range near normal due to average precipitation and snowpack accumulated thus far, Oct - Feb. NOTE: In normal years, additional snowpack can accumulate in the mountains through the first half of April. However, it's worth noting that precipitation, strong winds and blowing dust, a cold spring or unseasonably warm spring during the snowmelt season can greatly affect total runoff volume and timing of peak flow. ...Water Year Conditions... -------------------------------------------------------------------- Observed Precipitation -------------------------------------------------------------------- Below normal precipitation in December into early January led to a slow start to the water year's total precipitation. Fortunately, a more active pattern returned to the Western Slope by mid January. These series of storms brought relief to winter's snowpack, and resulted in above average precipitation for the month of January. Storms continued to bring accumulating snow into the beginning half of February, raising the total 2024 water year precipitation to near normal conditions across most high elevation basins. Western Colorado and eastern Utah Water Year Precipitation as of February 14th: Yampa/White 100% Upper CO Mainstem 100% Gunnison 95% Dolores/San Miguel 90% San Juan 90% Duchesne 105% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Observed Snowpack -------------------------------------------------------------------- Due to the slow start to the Water Year, observed snowpack has struggled to pump up above normal thus far. However, the above average monthly precipitation by the end of January and additional storms in early February have improved snowpack conditions region wide. As of February 14th, snowpack across western Colorado and eastern Utah averages just below to near normal. Yampa/White 95% Upper CO Mainstem 95% Gunnison 100% Dolores/San Miguel 105% San Juan 95% Duchesne 110% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Soil Moisture -------------------------------------------------------------------- An abnormally high spring runoff in 2023 improved soil moisture conditions and even removed the entire HSA from the US Drought Monitor by June. However, a delayed monsoon in the heat of summer led to increasing evaporation/ evapotrasporation, especially across the high elevations of southwest Colorado. As a result, soil conditions worsened and dropped below normal by Fall (November). Conditions worsen from north to south, with southwest Colorado mountains dropping below 50 percent of normal in some areas. Antecedent soil moisture can impact the efficiency of early spring runoff. Thus, water supply forecasts for basins with above average soil moisture tend to experience more efficient runoff from rainfall and snowmelt, while basins with below average antecedent conditions show less efficient runoff until soil saturation is reached. -------------------------------------------------------------------- STATUS of RESERVOIR STORAGE FOR WFO Grand Junction Reservoirs PERIOD ENDING: January 31, 2024 Figures are in 1000 Acre Feet ================================================================================================ C U R R E N T Y R L A S T Y R 1991-2020 EOM % of % of EOM % of JAN 31 Usable Storage Average Capacity Storage Average Avg Storage Capacity ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 568.3| 110| 69|| 295.4| 57|| 515.2| 827.9| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 16.7| 111| 95|| 16.5| 110|| 15.0| 17.5| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CRAWFORD RESERVOIR | 6.1| M| 43|| 2.0| M|| M| 14.1| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FRUIT GROWERS DAM - A| 1.6| M| 36|| 1.9| M|| M| 4.5| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FLORIDA - LEMON RESER| 15.7| 87| 39|| 17.0| 94|| 18.1| 39.8| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DOLORES - MCPHEE RESE| 291.9| 114| 77|| 189.1| 74|| 256.3| 381.1| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 111.2| 101| 95|| 104.5| 95|| 109.9| 117.0| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 1.8| 69| 11|| 1.2| 45|| 2.6| 16.7| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 64.5| 96| 78|| 69.3| 103|| 67.5| 83.0| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RIFLE CK - RIFLE GAP | 12.5| M| 102|| 4.2| M|| M| 12.2| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 75.9| 107| 74|| 65.0| 92|| 70.8| 102.0| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CIMARRON - SILVER JAC| 1.2| 23| 9|| 1.9| 38|| 5.1| 13.0| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 72.2| 106| 68|| 65.4| 96|| 68.1| 106.2| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 63.8| 93| 51|| 71.8| 105|| 68.5| 125.4| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GREEN - FLAMING GORGE| 3131.4| 102| 84|| 2496.9| 81|| 3081.2| 3749.0| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 8138.1| 56| 33|| 5462.4| 38|| 14430.3| 24322.0| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------- MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS -------------------------------------------------------------------- The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early March and an updated product will be issued at that time. LOCATION FLOOD FCST FORECAST FLOWS FLOW DATE 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 5923 2024-03-01 ELK - MILNER, NR 5916 2024-03-01 YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR 21200 2024-03-01 LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR 15271 2024-03-01 YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK 20744 2024-03-01 WHITE - MEEKER, NR 8906 2024-03-01 SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR 2200 2024-03-01 TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE 2000 2024-03-01 STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC 300 2024-03-01 EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO 6000 2024-03-01 COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR 17000 2024-03-01 CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A 3200 2024-03-01 ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S 13000 2024-03-01 COLORADO - CAMEO, NR 26000 2024-03-01 EAST - ALMONT 3100 2024-03-01 NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N 11000 2024-03-01 SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE 1330 2024-03-01 GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION 21000 2024-03-01 DOLORES - RICO, BLO 1750 2024-03-01 DOLORES - DOLORES 6700 2024-03-01 SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE, -999 2024-03-01 COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI 46000 2024-03-01 SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS 4600 2024-03-01 ANIMAS - DURANGO 10600 2024-03-01 ANIMAS - FARMINGTON 9000 2024-03-01 MANCOS - MANCOS, NR 810 2024-03-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------- CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK AND FORECAST CONDITIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------- The current ENSO phase remains as El Nino, however, a La Nina Watch is now on the horizon. During January, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were detected, though SST anomalies have weakened. As such El Nino conditions are present but are expected to transition to ENSO-neutral in the Northern hemisphere during spring 2024, with La Nina potentially developing by summer. Despite the weakening El Nino, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks still reflect El Nino impacts on the United States through April 2024. This means the southwestern US is likely to see above normal precipitation through March. An area with precipitation probabilities leaning toward above normal stretches into eastern Utah and western Colorado, though, the probability decreases the from southwest to northeast. Temperature outlooks keep equal chances for above or below normal values for northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. However, below normal temperatures are likely across the Four Corners region. On a shorter-scale timeframe, CPC outlooks maintain likely above normal precip across the Desert Southwest thanks to the potential Atmospheric River (AR) impacting the Western CONUS over the next 6 to 10 Days. Southern California typically wrings out the bulk of AR moisture, though remnants may trickle across the inter-mountain west and keep the potential for accumulating snow across the high country through the coming weeks. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Additional information is available at weather.gov/gjt. For detailed flow forecasts visit www.cbrfc.noaa.gov. Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service...the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center...and the Climate Prediction Center were used to create this product. $$ ####018019021#### FGUS73 KEAX 152050 ESFEAX MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-160000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 250 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River, Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. ...Below normal flood potential through mid-May along the Missouri River from the Iowa border through Boonville... ...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will likely experience minor to moderate flooding... Outlook: Through early May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 15 to 30 percent lower than normal. Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from the Iowa border downstream to St. Joseph, Missouri range from 20 to 30 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through Kansas City has a 10 to 15 percent chance of minor flooding through mid-May. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent. Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger, Crooked, Wakenda, Grand near Sumner, Blackwater, Lamine, Petite Saline, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each spring. Recent Conditions: The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below normal precipitation the past 30 days. Far northwest Missouri received the least amount of precipitation where values were generally below 50 percent of normal. The wettest region was found along and west of a line from Atchison to Olathe, Kansas to Butler, Missouri. Precipitation totals ranged from 125 to 175 percent of normal within this area. During the past 90 days, the vast majority of the local region received above normal precipitation. Over half of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received in excess of 150 percent of normal precipitation with areas in the vicinity of Atchison, Leavenworth, and St. Joseph reporting in excess of 200 percent of normal. 30-day mean temperature values ranged from the lower 30s along Iowa border to the upper 30s across the Kansas City metro area. These values were generally 4 to 6 degrees above normal. For the past 90- Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values ranging 2 to 5 degrees warmer than average. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 40 percent of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, around 6 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 50 percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with roughly 20 percent reporting at least moderate drought, and 5 percent severe drought. No snow cover is present across the local region. In addition, much below normal snowpack is common across the northern Plains and mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin. 7-Day streamflow values across the local region were generally near normal. However, parts of the Marias Des Cygne River observed much above normal streamflow conditions. Future Conditions: 7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to range from only several hundredths across northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri, to a quarter inch across central Missouri. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern highly favored for above normal temperatures. Normal precipitation amounts are anticipated. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA. The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, February 29th. ------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Delaware River Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 24 28 20 23 <5 <5 :Stranger Creek Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 80 87 66 68 6 6 Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 49 57 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 13 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Missouri River St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 34 63 14 36 5 11 Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 22 56 9 18 5 14 Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 15 40 8 18 <5 9 Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 13 29 6 17 <5 8 Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 9 14 6 11 <5 <5 Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 51 70 11 23 6 10 Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 54 70 9 18 6 11 Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 57 78 8 16 6 12 Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 51 67 44 63 11 24 Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 54 70 10 13 <5 5 :Tarkio River Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 51 77 49 73 17 48 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :102 River Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 17 44 8 11 <5 <5 Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 25 48 24 47 <5 5 :Platte River Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 74 82 44 59 5 5 :Little Platte River Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 60 66 39 53 17 25 Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 64 76 27 38 11 23 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 23 23 7 8 <5 <5 Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 15 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 16 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 39 35 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked River Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 66 76 61 73 <5 <5 :Wakenda Creek Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 63 67 51 55 14 20 :Blackwater River Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 82 88 76 82 26 29 Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 84 95 56 61 9 9 :Lamine River Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 65 68 51 53 9 11 :Moniteau Creek Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 75 76 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Petite Saline Creek Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 66 78 51 63 <5 <5 :Thompson River Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 26 42 10 10 <5 <5 :Grand River Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 37 56 28 45 21 33 Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 43 55 8 18 <5 5 Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 64 73 46 58 23 31 Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 81 84 79 80 6 5 Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 59 73 14 26 5 6 :Chariton River Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 26 34 18 21 9 10 Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 63 73 23 31 10 10 :South Grand River Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 65 59 39 37 <5 <5 :Big Creek Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 95 94 82 74 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 44 48 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 58 54 38 39 <5 <5 Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 47 44 39 40 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 5.6 8.0 13.6 20.4 26.7 28.7 29.4 :Stranger Creek Easton 9.4 14.4 17.5 19.6 21.0 22.0 23.7 Tonganoxie 9.5 13.2 17.2 23.1 25.3 25.9 27.1 :Kansas River De Soto 8.3 8.6 10.6 13.4 19.1 21.6 26.9 Turner Bridge KCK 10.2 11.4 15.3 20.2 27.5 33.8 42.4 23rd Street KCK 15.0 15.7 18.5 22.3 28.7 34.6 43.5 :Missouri River St Joseph 6.9 8.0 11.2 15.4 18.2 23.3 27.2 Atchison 9.1 10.7 15.0 19.3 21.9 26.8 29.9 Leavenworth 4.0 5.3 9.3 14.6 18.2 23.5 28.2 Parkville 10.0 10.9 15.4 18.6 21.2 25.9 31.4 Kansas City 12.7 13.3 17.6 20.3 26.0 30.9 38.5 Napoleon 9.9 10.4 14.6 17.2 21.5 25.3 31.7 Waverly 13.7 14.3 18.1 21.1 24.4 28.1 31.3 Miami 10.8 11.8 16.9 20.3 24.0 27.4 29.8 Glasgow 16.4 18.4 21.9 25.7 29.3 32.8 37.7 Boonville 12.5 14.9 17.9 22.3 26.4 29.8 32.7 :Tarkio River Fairfax 7.0 8.6 11.9 17.7 24.5 25.6 28.6 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 7.2 9.2 10.1 11.6 15.7 18.4 25.0 :102 River Maryville 9.1 10.9 12.7 14.5 16.7 20.6 25.2 Rosendale 7.0 10.2 12.9 15.9 18.0 21.0 22.8 :Platte River Agency 12.6 16.1 19.8 24.7 26.7 28.1 29.8 :Little Platte River Smithville 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.9 18.8 20.9 26.5 :Platte River Sharps Station 14.9 19.9 22.1 27.3 31.5 33.6 35.2 Platte City 12.3 17.0 18.6 22.2 25.6 29.5 31.3 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 26.8 27.4 29.2 31.2 34.3 38.5 39.4 Bannister Road Ka 7.8 12.8 15.3 20.2 28.2 35.3 36.1 71 Highway Kansas 7.0 12.5 15.1 18.4 24.1 30.6 31.6 63rd Street Kansa 10.4 14.1 15.8 18.8 23.3 29.9 31.3 Colorado Avenue K 9.9 13.6 15.3 17.8 21.3 27.3 28.7 Stadium Drive Kan 9.1 13.5 15.6 19.3 23.5 30.1 31.9 17th Street Kansa 13.0 17.5 19.0 21.9 26.2 31.7 33.3 12th Street Kansa 9.1 12.6 14.1 16.6 20.9 27.0 28.5 :Little Blue River Lake City 5.8 7.1 8.5 16.4 19.6 22.9 23.8 :Crooked River Richmond 9.9 14.2 18.9 21.9 24.5 26.6 27.1 :Thompson River Trenton 14.8 15.4 19.6 22.7 27.1 31.0 32.4 :Grand River Pattonsburg 4.7 6.0 12.5 21.3 31.0 34.0 41.6 Gallatin 6.8 7.4 15.4 24.4 30.9 32.7 37.2 Chillicothe 10.5 11.6 18.3 26.6 34.2 38.9 40.5 Sumner 16.4 18.8 30.6 33.4 36.1 38.1 40.4 Brunswick 11.7 13.4 17.4 21.1 25.3 27.8 34.0 :Chariton River Novinger 2.6 5.5 10.7 16.2 20.1 25.8 27.8 Prairie Hill 5.6 8.9 14.0 16.3 18.6 21.2 23.3 :South Grand River Urich 14.5 17.2 21.7 25.1 27.5 28.9 29.8 :Big Creek Blairstown 19.5 21.9 23.3 24.3 26.0 27.0 27.1 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 16.8 17.9 21.8 26.8 33.1 36.6 37.7 La Cygne 9.7 13.0 20.3 29.1 32.6 33.5 33.9 Trading Post 12.8 15.7 19.7 26.1 33.2 37.2 38.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Stranger Creek Easton 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.5 Tonganoxie 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 :Kansas River De Soto 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 :Missouri River St Joseph 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.4 Atchison 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.1 Parkville 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.4 Kansas City 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 Napoleon 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 Waverly 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.5 Miami 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 Glasgow 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.7 Boonville 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.7 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 :102 River Maryville 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 Rosendale 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Platte River Agency 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 :Little Platte River Smithville 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 :Platte River Sharps Station 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 Platte City 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 Bannister Road Ka 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 71 Highway Kansas 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 63rd Street Kansa 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 Colorado Avenue K 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 Stadium Drive Kan 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 17th Street Kansa 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 12th Street Kansa 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 :Little Blue River Lake City 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 :Crooked River Richmond 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 :Thompson River Trenton 10.2 10.2 9.9 8.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Gallatin 3.7 3.5 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Chillicothe 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.4 3.2 3.1 Sumner 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.2 :Chariton River Novinger 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Prairie Hill 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 :South Grand River Urich 4.7 4.6 3.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 8.4 8.3 7.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 La Cygne 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.5 Trading Post 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water information. $$ SAW