####018041606#### FGUS73 KGID 152104 ESFGID NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019- KSC147-KSC163-051800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Hastings NE 302 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In South Central Nebraska this outlook includes the Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their tributaries. In North Central Kansas...the Solomon River and its tributaries are included. ...The potential for spring flooding is generally below average to near average across the majority of the area... ...Short Term Hydrologic Outlook...February 15th - 29th... The thick river ice we accumulated in January has melted off or broken up and moved out of the area. We do not expect enough additional ice accumulation through late winter or early spring to cause any additional ice jams this season. Therefore, the ice jam threat has ended for the spring season. There is good confidence that we will continue to see above normal temperatures through the end of February. The precipitation outlook is more uncertain, but with perhaps a little better chance for less precipitation than normal as we end the month of February. Therefore, no flooding is currently expected through the end of February. ...Long Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 1st Through May 17th... The overall potential for spring flooding is below average across the majority of the area to near average in a few locations along primarily the Loup River Basin. Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February through March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude, stream flow conditions, and the long range forecast of future precipitation patterns. There are several primary factors leading to our below average threat for spring flooding. - The local snowpack is negligible to non-existent. - The mountain snowpack in the Platte River Basin is near to below normal. - Lake McConaughy is at 62 percent capacity and has plenty of storage space available. - Soil moisture is drier than normal in many locations given the ongoing moderate to severe drought. We do have some locations that have come out of the drought, but even in these areas soil moisture is just near normal at best. Consequently, the soil is still capable of absorbing plenty of moisture thus limiting spring flood potential. - Current streamflow on our biggest rivers is averaging near normal to below normal from the Platte Basin south into Kansas. Farther north the Loup Basin has a few sites averaging above normal streamflow for this time of year. - The March precipitation outlook is trending towards above normal precipitation, but the longer range outlook of April through June indicates equal chances with no strong indicators one way or the other. A wetter than normal March may help our drought situation, but is unlikely to have much impact on our short term flooding threat due to the other factors listed above. It is important to mention that isolated or localized flooding is still possible even in dry years and when the overall risk of widespread flooding is low. Isolated heavy spring thunderstorms will still be capable of producing localized areas of flooding. For a graphical, more in-depth version of this assessment, please refer to our PDF report that will be linked at: https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/hydro/SpringFloodOutlook_2024.pdf ...Climatological Review (Annual 2023 and More Recent Winter 2023-24 Precipitation Analysis)... Let's start with a look back with a precipitation recap of the year 2023 across the 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area (24 counties in central/south central Nebraska and 6 in north central Kansas): Although as severely dry as 2022 was, 2023 was another overall-drier- than-normal year across most of our area, with roughly 75 percent of the area receiving at least slightly below normal precipitation (counties east of Highway 281 the overall-driest). Of the roughly one-fourth of the area that received slightly above normal precipitation, it was almost entirely concentrated within counties west of Highway 281. Digging a bit deeper into the numbers, the majority of the area tallied between 20-27 inches of precipitation, or generally 75-100% of the 30-year normal. Put another way, most places measured somewhere between 8" below normal annual precipitation and 1" above normal annual precipitation. Based on data from dozens of NWS and CoCoRaHS/NeRAIN observers, also radar-estimated analysis, some places especially within the following central/eastern local counties fell at least 6" short of normal for the year: Hall, Hamilton, York, Polk, Fillmore, Thayer, Mitchell. On the flip side, of the roughly 25% of the area that received at least slightly above normal precipitation, it was most heavily concentrated within portions of the following western local counties: Harlan, Gosper, Valley, Sherman, western Buffalo and northern Phillips. For our 30-county area as a whole (and there were certainly exceptions), a few of the overall-driest months versus normal were: March, April, May and October. In contrast, the overall- wettest months versus normal were: January, February, June and December. Highlighting just a few "quirky"/notable precipitation trends within our area during 2023: - 1): Our NWS observer near York (York 3N) totaled merely 6.97" through the first half of the year (January-June), an incredible 8.40" below normal and marking the driest first half of a year since 1970! However, July then brought an incredible change in fortune, with 7.31" of rain ranking as the 9th-wettest July on record out of 130 years. Unfortunately, the annual total at York 3N still ended up 8.08" below normal. - 2): In our extreme southern coverage area, our NWS observer near Plainville KS (Plainville 4WNW) endured two INCREDIBLY-DRY, two- month stretches during 2023. First, March+April combined to yield merely 0.36", marking THE DRIEST March+April on record out of 115 years! Then in the fall, September+October combined for just 0.75" (the 2nd-driest Sept.+Oct. on record). Fortunately, the other eight months of the year featured near-to-above normal precipitation, but Plainville 4WNW still ended up 5.02" below normal for 2023. As for official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the outright driest in our coverage area during 2023 included: Grand Island airport (16.52"), Bradshaw (19.30"), Osceola (20.00") and Polk (20.14"). Meanwhile, a few of the wettest NWS observer stations featured: Lebanon KS (29.57"), Harlan County Lake (29.43"), Loup City (28.54") and Lovewell Dam KS (27.85"). -- 2023 Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM): Not surprisingly given that below normal precipitation prevailed most of the year in most places, drought of varying intensity was a big story during 2023. The year opened with 95% of our coverage area blanketed by anything from Moderate Drought (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3). Halfway through the year, the June 27th USDM painted a worsening situation, with your ENTIRE 30-county area covered by Moderate (D1) to Exceptional Drought (D4), including 42% of the area in D3+D4 (most heavily concentrated east of Highway 281 in Nebraska). Fortunately, the latter half of 2023 brought at least some improvement, as the Dec. 28th USDM only had 62% of our area under D1-D4, and the coverage of worst-off D3+D4 had slimmed to 28% (but still most concentrated east of Highway 281 in Nebraska). On a positive note at year's end: 16% of the area was actually indicated to be void of all all drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally Dry D0), including large parts of Furnas, Gosper, Phelps, Harlan and Valley counties. The first table below features precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for the year 2023, with data depicted for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. (For full access to official daily/monthly/annual precipitation totals across our area, please visit our NOWData page: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=gid) Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS All of 2023 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 22.52 -6.56 77 Phillipsburg 26.10 +0.47 102 Plainville 4WNW 21.09 -5.02 81 Smith Center 25.23 -0.87 97 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE All of 2023 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 21.84 -1.60 93 Elwood 8S 24.31 +1.03 104 Grand Island Arpt 16.52 -10.09 62 Hastings Airport 20.81 -5.59 79 Hebron 22.79 -8.29 73 Holdrege 25.18 -2.41 91 Kearney Airport 26.95 +1.39 105 Lexington 6SSE 24.45 +1.06 105 Ord 27.35 +1.04 104 Osceola 20.00 -8.79 69 Red Cloud 26.16 +0.70 103 St. Paul 20.70 -6.62 76 York 3N 22.11 -8.08 73 ...Winter-to-date precipitation trends (Dec. 1-Feb. 14)... Now that we've examined precipitation trends/totals for the preceding calendar year of 2023, it's time to take a closer look at more recent precipitation trends over the past few months, specifically what has transpired since the start of "meteorological winter" back on Dec. 1, 2023 (meteorological winter is defined as the three calendar months of Dec-Jan-Feb). As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported by AHPS precipitation analysis), this winter-so-far has been solidly wetter-than-normal across our entire coverage area. More specifically, most of our area has received somewhere between 2.00- 4.00" of precipitation since Dec. 1st (including melted snow). This equates to most of our area being 110-220 percent of normal for the winter! Although much of this precipitation fell as snow during January, quite a bit of it actually fell as rain during December and in early February. Although not a large/significant difference, the overall-wettest locations have mainly favored eastern/southern portions of our area, with the overall-driest locations mainly concentrated in western/northern counties. Per official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the wettest locations in our area since Dec. 1st include: Plainville KS 4WNW (5.08"), Smith Center KS (5.00") and Hebron (4.40"). In fact, this has already been the 2nd-wettest winter on record in Smith Center and the 3rd-wettest on record at Plainville 4WNW! Meanwhile, a few of the driest (but still at least slightly above normal) stations have been: Cambridge (1.51"), Edison (1.96") and Greeley (1.98"). -- Winter-to-date Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM): Thanks to the aforementioned above normal precipitation this winter (and in particular the fact that much of it has fallen as rain and soaked into the soil efficiently), there has been an unusually- significant improvement in drought categories across much of our coverage area since early-December. At the start of December, 64% of our coverage area was under drought categories ranging from Moderate (D1) to Exceptional (D4), including 36% of the area in worst-off D3+D4 (primarily focused east of Highway 281 in Nebraska and also in parts of north central Kansas). However, the last few months have only brought gradual improvement, and as of the very latest USDM issued today (Feb. 15), all Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought categories have been removed from our coverage area. That being said, half of the area remains under Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought, with D2 dominating most local Nebraska counties along/east of Highway 281. In the "best news of all" department, 31% of our coverage area is currently indicated to be void of all drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally Dry D0), including large parts of several counties mainly west of the Highway 281 corridor. The next table below highlights precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter thus far, covering Dec. 1st - Feb. 14th. Data is shown for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 14 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 4.00 +1.87 188 Phillipsburg 3.03 +1.18 164 Plainville 4WNW 5.08 +3.08 254 Smith Center 5.00 +3.27 289 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 14 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 1.51 +0.11 108 Elwood 8S 2.06 +0.70 151 Grand Island Arpt 3.47 +1.65 191 Hastings Airport 3.28 +1.47 181 Hebron 4.40 +2.14 195 Holdrege 2.78 +1.17 173 Kearney Airport 2.51 +1.03 170 Lexington 6SSE 2.07 +0.79 162 Ord 2.86 +1.23 175 Osceola 3.74 +1.60 175 Superior 3.53 +1.40 166 St. Paul 2.32 +0.56 132 York 3N 3.58 +1.27 155 ...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next Three Months... It's now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends over the next several months: The next week (through Feb. 22): According to our latest official 7-day forecast, at least the vast majority of this week will be dry, with the only decent chance for light snowfall accumulation (mainly under 1") occurring right away tonight into Friday AM (Feb. 16th). Temperature-wise, following a few cooler days with highs only in the 30s/40s through Saturday (Feb. 17), we will return right back to the prevailing warmer-than- normal regime that has defined nearly the entire month so far. More specifically, high temperatures in the 50s (and even some 60s) will be common Feb. 18th-22nd. Two weeks out (Feb. 23-29): Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for a high probability of continued above normal temperatures across our entire coverage area (60-70% chance), and also calls for near-normal precipitation. Meteorological Spring (March-May): Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April- May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three- month outlook (just issued today/Feb. 15th) indicates a slight lean toward above normal precipitation (primarily driven by expectations of a somewhat-wet March), along with "Equal chances" for temperatures to be above normal, below normal or near normal. This means that there are no clear signals in current longer-range forecast data to lean toward one of these outcomes over another. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10", with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest amounts near the Highway 81 corridor. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Feb. 15th and valid through the end of May): Going hand in hand with the aforementioned slight lean toward above normal precipitation this spring, this outlook indicates that those parts of our coverage area currently under any drought category (Moderate Drought D1 or worse), will either see some improvement or perhaps have drought removed altogether. (The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)...Climatological Review (Annual 2022 and More Recent Winter 2022-23 Precipitation Analysis)... Let's start with a look back at precipitation trends for the year 2022 across the 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area (24 counties in central/south central Nebraska and 6 in north central Kansas): 2022 was a notably-dry year across our ENTIRE area, with most places falling short of 30-year normal precipitation by 5-12 inches (typically receiving no more than 55-80 percent of normal). For many official long-term NWS stations, 2022 ranked between a Top- 10 and Top-15 driest year on record. For many places, it was the overall-driest year since AT LEAST 2012 or 2022, but in limited spots one had to go back much farther to find a drier year (for example, Hastings Airport had its driest year since 1966!). Based on data from dozens of NWS/CoCoRaHS/NeRAIN observers and also AHPS precipitation analysis, the very-driest conditions focused within primarily northern/western parts of our Nebraska coverage area. The following counties were particularly dry (greatest coverage of annual precip under 15"): most of Howard, Merrick, Nance, much of western Dawson and much of southwestern Furnas. On the better-off, (but still solidly drier-than-normal) side of things, most (not all) of our north central KS area along with southeastern parts of our Nebraska coverage area had the greatest concentration of annual totals of at least 18-23". Although the preceding year (2021) was also notably dry the MAJORITY of the time, 2021 totals were somewhat skewed/"inflated" by a near- record to record-wettest March. However, 2022 DID NOT have any particularly wet months (at least on a widespread basis), with most places during most months averaging somewhere between modestly drier- than-normal and FAR drier-than-normal (the overall driest months versus normal were Jan., Feb., Aug. Oct., Nov.). Of all these dry months, Feb. and Aug. were most noteworthy across the area as a whole. In Feb., the vast majority of places measured LESS THAN 0.10", matching the driest Feb. on record in places such as Grand Island and Kearney (among many others). Due in part to this incredibly-dry February, the entire 2021-22 "meteorological winter" season (Dec. 2021-Feb. 2022) ranked among the Top-5 driest in many places (not to mention an incredible lack of snow). During August, most of our coverage area only picked up between 0.20-1.50" of rain, also placing many spots in Top-5 driest on record territory. Of course, even during a very dry year three are usually at least brief periods/limited zones of decent precipitation. In 2022, these included: 1) May was fairly wet in roughly the southeast 1/4th of our coverage area (many places with 5-7")...2) July was decently-wet across most (not all) of our area, with most places measuring between 3-6"...3) September was modestly-wet within much of the southwestern half of our area (many places 2.50-4.50")...4) The year ended with a somewhat-wet December, especially within the western half of of our Nebraska coverage area (where totals of 0.70-1.15" were common). As for official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the outright driest in our coverage area during 2022 included: Elwood 8S (12.61"), Greeley (14.33"), Belgrade (14.36") and Wilsonville (14.46"). Meanwhile, a few of the "wettest" (but still dry) stations featured: Hubbell (25.78"), Superior (24.41"), Clay Center (22.46") and Gresham 3W (22.41"). -- 2022 Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor): Not surprisingly, our entire coverage area found itself in a gradually-worsening drought situation as 2022 wore on. The year kicked off with relatively minimal official drought coverage, although Abnormally Dry (D0) blanketed the majority of our coverage area, with limited pockets of Moderate Drought (D1) noted in parts of north central KS and also parts of mainly Buffalo/Hall counties in Nebraska. Through the remainder of winter 2021-22 into early spring, a mix of Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) gradually overtook the entire area, with Extreme Drought (D3) creeping across in various parts of our northern/western Nebraska coverage area through March and April. While some localized pockets of heavier rain in May/early-June resulted in a temporary removal of D3, the majority of our coverage area (but especially the northwest half) hung firmly onto D1/D2 categories throughout summer. As prevailing dry conditions persisted through the fall (and particularly in response to a VERY dry Oct.-Nov.), both D1/D2 again expanded to include the vast majority of our coverage area, and D3 made another return, particularly within parts of several Nebraska counties north of Interstate 80. Although December brought some much- needed above-normal precipitation to especially western parts of our Nebraska coverage area, the varied mix of D1/D2/D3 officially held firm across the vast majority of our area through year's end, with only portions of three far southeastern local counties (Mitchell/Jewell KS and Thayer NE) depicted as having "only" D0. The first table below features precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for the year 2022, with data depicted for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. (For full access to official daily/monthly/annual precipitation totals across our area, please visit our NOWData page: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=gid) Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS All of 2022 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 18.82 -10.26 65 Phillipsburg 20.35 -5.28 79 Plainville 4WNW 19.62 -6.49 75 Smith Center 18.73 -7.37 72 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE All of 2022 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 16.86 -6.58 72 Franklin 18.26 -8.28 69 Grand Island Arpt 15.20 -11.41 57 Hastings Airport 16.09 -10.31 61 Hebron 19.94 -11.14 64 Holdrege 18.55 -9.04 67 Kearney Airport 17.62 -7.94 69 Lexington 6SSE 15.09 -8.30 65 Ord 14.87 -11.44 57 Osceola 17.18 -11.61 60 Red Cloud 21.13 -4.33 83 St. Paul 15.25 -12.07 56 York 3N 22.09 -8.10 73 ...Winter-to-date precipitation trends (Dec. 1-Feb. 8)... Now that we've examined precipitation trends/totals for the preceding calendar year of 2022, it's time to take a closer look at more recent precipitation trends over the past few months, specifically what has transpired since the start of "meteorological winter" back on Dec. 1, 2022 (meteorological winter is defined as the three calendar months of Dec-Jan-Feb). As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported by AHPS precipitation analysis), this winter-so-far has featured some encouraging trends in the wake of a VERY DRY Fall 2022. More specifically, most of our coverage area has received between 1.50- 2.50" of precipitation since Dec. 1st (including melted snow). This equates to most of our area having received between 80-175 percent of normal winter precipitation. However, there are lower/higher exceptions. On the wetter/snowier side of things, much of the western half of our Nebraska coverage area has measured at least 2.50-3.00" of much-needed precipitation so far this winter (over twice normal in some places)! On the flip side, parts of especially our far southeastern Nebraska coverage area and far southern Kansas coverage area has only received between 1.15-1.50" of precipitation. Although these lower totals represent near to slightly-below normal amounts , fortunately it is still considerably more precipitation than what had been received at this point LAST winter. Per official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the wettest locations in our area since Dec. 1st include: Arcadia 2W (3.32"), Ord (3.12") and Holdrege (3.05"). Meanwhile, a few of the driest (but not overly-dry) stations have been: Bradshaw (1.34"), Shickley 4S (1.47") and Hebron (1.49"). -- Winter-to-date Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor): Despite some encouraging recent trends (most of our coverage area has received near-to-above-normal precipitation since Dec. 1st), as is typical of the winter months, drought categories have not changed extensively (due mainly to winter being the overall-driest time of year). Officially, the majority of our coverage area has observed no change in drought categories whatsoever since Dec. 1st, with most places still assigned a varied mix of Moderate (D1) to Severe Drought (D2). However, on at least a limited positive note, above normal Dec-Jan precipitation did prompt a reduction of Extreme Drought (D3) within parts of several Nebraska counties mainly west of Highway 281. However, at this time, D3 is still present in at least portions of the following local counties: Nance, Merrick, Greeley, Howard, Polk, Hall, Furnas. Meanwhile, on the best-off side of things, parts of Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer counties in our far southeast coverage area remain in "only" the Abnormally Dry (D0) category. The next table below highlights precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter thus far, covering Dec. 1 - Feb. 8. Data is shown for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 8 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 1.57 -0.39 80 Phillipsburg 2.01 +0.36 122 Plainville 4WNW 1.83 +0.02 99 Smith Center 1.72 +0.15 110 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 8 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 2.79 +1.55 225 Franklin 1.96 +0.34 121 Grand Island Arpt 1.95 +0.29 117 Hastings Airport 1.85 +0.22 113 Hebron 1.49 -0.60 71 Holdrege 3.05 +1.60 210 Kearney Airport 2.54 +1.20 190 Lexington 6SSE 2.81 +1.66 244 Ord 3.12 +1.66 213 Osceola 1.83 -0.13 93 Superior 1.80 -0.15 92 St. Paul 2.62 +1.02 164 York 3N 1.79 -0.35 84 ...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next Three Months... It's now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends over the next several months: The next week (through Feb. 16): According to our latest official 7-day forecast, this next week could feature a variety of weather conditions. Starting off, confidence is high in dry weather and above-average temperatures Friday through Monday (Feb. 10-12), as high temperatures average in the 40s-50s. However, between Monday night and Thursday (Feb. 16), there will be two separate low pressure systems that COULD bring precipitation to at least parts of our area. The first system would mainly affect our area Monday night into Tuesday, and as it currently stands, would mainly consist of the potential for a little rain (not snow). The second system would then potentially impact our area mainly Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Needless to say, there is CONSIDERABLE uncertainty regarding how much precipitation might fall from this system, but temperatures do appear cold enough to support some snow, with high temperatures on Wed-Thurs (Feb. 15-16) projected to drop back to no warmer than the 30s. For reference, 30- year normal high temperatures for mid-February are mainly in the upper 30s-low 40s across most of south central Nebraska/north central Kansas. Two weeks out (Feb. 17-23): Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for near-normal temperatures across our coverage area, and with a slight lean toward above normal precipitation. That being said, the latest computer models suggest that at least the early part of this time frame (particularly Feb. 17-20) would likely favor a mostly dry stretch of weather. Meteorological Spring (March-May): Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April- May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three- month outlook (issued Jan. 19) calls for "Equal Chances" for above versus below normal precipitation and also for above versus below normal temperatures. This means that there are no clear signals in current longer-range forecast data to lean toward one of these outcomes over another. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10", with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest amounts near the Highway 81 corridor. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Jan. 31 and valid through the end of April): Unfortunately, this outlook indicates that existing drought conditions are favored to persist across our coverage area of south central Nebraska/north central Kansas as we head through late-winter/early-spring. That being said, at least localized improvements are always possible if a larger-scale storm system or two happens to produce widespread, beneficial moisture. (The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ...Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Blue River Deweese 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 10 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Fork Solomon Glade 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Bow Creek Stockton 9.0 12.0 13.6 : <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Darr 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 15 18 12 15 11 12 Overton 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 13 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kearney 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wood River Gibbon 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 14 20 12 15 11 14 Alda 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 25 36 18 20 12 15 Wood River Divers 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 9 13 5 10 <5 8 :Platte River Grand Island 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 14 17 11 16 7 11 :South Loup River Ravenna 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 21 19 7 7 <5 5 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 16.5 18.0 21.0 : <5 14 <5 6 <5 <5 :South Loup River Saint Michael 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 9 14 <5 5 <5 <5 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :North Loup River Saint Paul 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River Fullerton 9.0 15.0 18.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Loup River Genoa 10.5 12.0 13.0 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek Genoa 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 10 18 5 7 <5 5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Blue River Deweese 2.2 3.0 4.3 5.4 7.5 10.0 10.8 :North Fork Solomon Glade 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.0 7.2 9.5 9.8 :Bow Creek Stockton 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 6.2 7.8 8.1 :Platte River Darr 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.1 10.4 13.7 14.7 Overton 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.8 8.1 10.1 Kearney 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.7 6.1 7.5 :Wood River Gibbon 4.6 4.6 6.0 8.4 12.6 17.1 17.8 Alda 4.9 4.9 5.5 7.2 10.0 12.8 13.2 Wood River Divers 11.4 11.4 12.4 13.9 15.6 19.0 20.6 :Platte River Grand Island 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.2 7.2 7.8 :South Loup River Ravenna 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.6 8.6 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 5.5 5.5 7.3 10.7 12.3 15.6 16.1 :South Loup River Saint Michael 2.3 2.3 3.2 5.1 6.6 8.6 12.5 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 1.3 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.7 5.0 7.1 :North Loup River Saint Paul 2.9 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.9 :Cedar River Fullerton 2.0 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.7 6.5 8.9 :Loup River Genoa 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.2 7.3 8.7 10.2 :Beaver Creek Genoa 3.4 3.7 5.2 7.5 11.1 15.1 16.9 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Blue River Deweese 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :North Fork Solomon Glade 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 :Bow Creek Stockton 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 :Platte River Darr 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Overton 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Kearney 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 :Wood River Gibbon 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Alda 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 Wood River Divers 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 :Platte River Grand Island 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 :South Loup River Ravenna 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 5.1 5.0 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.0 :South Loup River Saint Michael 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 :North Loup River Saint Paul 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Cedar River Fullerton 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 :Loup River Genoa 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 :Beaver Creek Genoa 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Future Outlooks... The next/updated spring flood outlook will be issued Thursday, Feb. 29th. && Visit our local NWS office website for current weather/hydrological and climate information for South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas at: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Additional climate information for the region can be obtained from the High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu Additional information on climatological outlooks can be found from the Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu https://www.drought.gov https://drought.unl.edu Information on mountain snowpack can be found at: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water- interactive-map NWS AHPS precipitation analysis maps can be found at: https://water.weather.gov/precip National snow analysis page can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov Soil Moisture: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring Reservoir Levels: www.usbr.gov/gp/hydromet/curres_google.htm For training on NWS river forecast graphics: www.youtube.com/watch?v=psIByj8EZY0 $$ Wesely/Pfannkuch