####018016476#### FGUS75 KBOU 152200 ESFBOU COC001-005-013-014-019-031-035-039-047-049-057-059-069-073-075- 087-093-095-115-117-121-123-172200- Water Supply Outlook National Weather Service Denver CO 300 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for North Central and Northeast Colorado Issuance Number 1... This is the initial 2024 spring runoff outlook for North Central and Northeast Colorado covering all or portions of the Upper North Platte...Upper South Platte and Upper Colorado River Basins. Flood and Water Supply Outlook Summary -------------------------------------- Spring flood potential is near to slightly below normal at this time for the South Platte River Basin, the Upper North Platte River Basin and the far Upper Colorado River Basin. Any widespread, significant flooding is not likely due to snowmelt alone. It should be emphasized that it is very early and snow typically accumulates into April, therefore conditions may change before the runoff begins. Water supply forecasts issued in early February by the National Weather Service project generally below average April through July runoff volumes for Upper Colorado and South Platte Basins. The one exception being the Upper North Platte basin, which is expected to produce a slightly above average runoff volume if current conditions persist. Appreciable mountain snowmelt runoff in a normal year starts in late April to early May. Mountain snowmelt generally peaks in mid-May to mid-June. It is still very early to make long range predictions on the magnitude of flooding from mountain snowmelt runoff. Heavy rainfall, a cold spring, or unseasonably warm temperatures during the snowmelt season can affect total runoff volume and peak flow, increasing the threat of flooding. Observed Precipitation...Snowpack and Temperatures -------------------------------------------------- The average higher elevation total water year precipitation for the Upper Colorado and Upper South Platte Basins are near to slightly below normal with the Upper North Platte and Cache La Poudre Basins are below normal. For the water year the percent of normal precipitation is still below normal for the central and northern part of the Denver metro area extending out into most of the northeastern plains. The exception with along the north Weld county border and most of Sedgwick and Phillips counties with near normal precipitation.Southern part of the Denver metro area into the Palmer Divide and adjacent foothills are near to slightly above normal. Precipitation in October through November was well below normal for most of Northeastern Colorado including the eastern plains, the urban corridor and mountains. In December the far eastern plains over to the Palmer Divide and into the foothills had above normal precipitation for the month. The northern part of the metro area east and north had much less than normal precipitation. Weld and Morgan counties had the least precipitation. January continued the dry trend over most of the eastern plains and Denver metro area. The Palmer Divide and portions of the mountains received some much needed moisture and spotty areas above normal for the month. The very end of January and into February brought much needed precipitation to the area. The eastern plains and into the foothills have received well over normal precipitation for the month of February so far. The mountains also received much needed snow and increased the snowpack to near to slightly below normal for the water year. Temperatures on average since the beginning of the water year through December have been well above normal. In January temperatures were below normal. So far in February temperatures have been above normal. Basin snowpack conditions for the period October 1 2023 to February 12 2024: --------------------------------- (Snow is percent of Median) (Total precipitation is percent of Average) Basin Snow Precip ----- ---- ------ Upper Colorado 99 101 South Platte 93 88 Upper North Platte 90 91 Subbasin Snow Precip -------- ---- ------ Colorado Headwaters 100 101 Blue 101 100 South Platte Headwaters 99 91 Clear Creek 102 104 St Vrain 92 87 Big Thompson 91 88 Cache La Poudre 86 80 North Platte Headwaters 88 89 Climate Outlook --------------- The current ENSO pattern is El Nino and is forecast to transition to the neutral phase later this spring. The chance of ENSO changing to neutral later this spring reaches 79 percent. The outlook through the rest of February favors slightly better chances of above normal temperatures with a slight chance of above normal precipitation over the mountains and along the urban corridor with equal chances of either above, below or normal precipitation on the eastern plains. Farther out, the February through April seasonal outlook favors equal chances of either above or below normal temperatures and equal chances of either above or below normal precipitation along and over the mountains with a leaning trend toward above normal precipitation over the eastern plains. Numerical River Outlooks ------------------------ In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 09/30/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Platte River South Platte 7.0 8.5 9.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Denver 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Henderson 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Fort Lupton 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kersey 10.0 11.5 13.5 : 13 11 12 9 11 7 Weldona 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 13 9 9 8 8 6 Fort Morgan 17.5 19.5 21.5 : 13 13 10 10 8 7 Balzac 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 12 12 11 11 9 9 Atwood 11.5 13.0 14.5 : 11 11 10 10 <5 <5 Julesburg 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Plum Creek Sedalia 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Bear Creek Morrison 9.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sheridan 8.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Clear Creek Golden 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Derby 10.5 11.5 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N Fk Big Thompson River Drake 5.5 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cache la Poudre River Fort Collins 9NW 7.5 9.0 10.5 : 7 10 <5 6 <5 <5 Fort Collins 10.5 11.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Greeley 8.0 9.5 10.5 : 13 17 8 13 7 10 :North Platte River Northgate 8.0 9.5 11.0 : 8 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 09/30/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :South Platte River South Platte 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.5 6.7 Denver 4.7 4.8 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.4 7.5 Henderson 5.3 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.7 8.5 9.0 Fort Lupton 5.0 5.4 6.6 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 Kersey 4.2 4.3 6.0 7.0 7.7 14.4 16.9 Weldona 3.7 3.8 5.4 6.4 7.5 10.3 13.4 Fort Morgan 10.7 10.8 11.9 13.5 14.8 19.9 22.6 Balzac 3.9 4.1 5.3 6.7 7.6 12.1 13.7 Atwood 5.0 5.1 5.9 7.6 8.4 13.0 14.3 Julesburg 6.5 6.6 7.1 8.1 8.4 10.1 10.6 :Plum Creek Sedalia 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.4 7.3 9.1 :Bear Creek Morrison 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.6 Sheridan 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.7 :Clear Creek Golden 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.2 Derby 4.8 4.9 5.3 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.4 :N Fk Big Thompson River Drake 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.6 :Cache la Poudre River Fort Collins 9NW 4.0 4.1 4.6 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.9 Fort Collins 2.3 2.4 3.4 4.7 5.8 6.9 9.4 Greeley 3.0 3.0 3.7 5.6 6.9 8.6 11.4 :North Platte River Northgate 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.3 7.1 7.5 8.3 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 09/30/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :South Platte River South Platte 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Denver 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 Henderson 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 Fort Lupton 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 Kersey 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 Weldona 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Fort Morgan 9.1 9.0 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Balzac 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 Atwood 3.1 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 Julesburg 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Plum Creek Sedalia 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 :Bear Creek Morrison 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 Sheridan 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Clear Creek Golden 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Derby 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 :N Fk Big Thompson River Drake 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 :Cache la Poudre River Fort Collins 9NW 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Fort Collins 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Greeley 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 :North Platte River Northgate 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Following are the forecasts for selected locations: Median Forecast Volume Percent Stream and Station Period 1000 AF of Avg __________________ ______ _______ _______ South Platte River Antero Reservoir inflow Apr-Sep 13 88 Spinney Mtn Res inflow Apr-Sep 39 86 11-Mile Canyon Res inflow Apr-Sep 42 85 Cheesman Lake inflow Apr-Sep 80 86 South Platte Apr-Sep 157 77 Bear Creek Morrison Apr-Sep 18 68 Clear Creek Golden Apr-Sep 98 75 Saint Vrain Creek Lyons Apr-Sep 78 72 Boulder Creek Orodell Apr-Sep 51 98 South Boulder Creek Eldorado Springs Apr-Sep 36 89 Cache La Poudre River Canyon Mouth Apr-Sep 184 87 North Platte River Northgate Apr-Sep 339 115 Colorado River Granby Apr-Jul 195 87 Willow Creek Willow Creek Res Apr-Jul 48 96 Fraser River Winter Park Apr-Jul 21 113 Williams Fork River Williams Fork Reservoir Apr-Jul 84 88 Blue River Dillon Res Apr-Jul 148 89 Green Mtn Res Apr-Jul 260 93 Muddy Creek Wolford Mtn Res Blw Apr-Jul 52 100 Colorado River Kremmling Apr-Jul 800 92 These forecasts reflect natural flow only. Actual observed flow will likely be affected by upstream water management. It should be emphasized that snow accumulation and snow pack conditions could change before the runoff begins. Changing hydrometeorological conditions can have a significant impact on water supply forecasts. Additional products will be issued as conditions evolve. Additional supportive information --------------------------------- - Visit the Missouri Basin RFC information webpage for water supply forecasts east of the divide at weather.gov/mbrfc/water. - Visit the Colorado Basin RFC for water supply forecasts west of the divide at cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=wsup. - Visit our website at weather.gov/bou for additional local weather...climate and stream information. - Long range precipitation and temperature outlooks are available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/. - Snowpack and reservoir data are available from the Natural Resources Conservation Service at www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/. $$ as ####018017612#### FGUS73 KLSX 152203 ESFLSX ILC001-009-013-027-051-149-MOC051-053-071-073-099-111-113-127- 137-151-163-173-183-189-221-291800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS MO 400 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... ...Near-normal flood chances along the Illinois River... ...Below-normal flood chances along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers... ...Near- to below-normal flood chances along most local tributaries... This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the Mississippi River from above Canton, Missouri to below Chester, Illinois; the Missouri River above Jefferson City, Missouri to its confluence with the Mississippi River; the Illinois River downstream from Beardstown, Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi River; and for tributaries of these rivers in central and eastern Missouri and in west central and southwest Illinois. Except for minor flooding along the Kaskaskia River below Carlyle Dam, the probabilities within this outlook are not skewed by any ongoing flooding nor by any anticipated excessive rainfall. This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over the area; upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and Illinois river basins; and forecast rainfall over the next two weeks to three months. More-than-expected rainfall could cause additional flooding over the area, while less-than-expected rainfall could keep rivers from reaching crests we consider likely. The lower Missouri River basin continues to experience widespread persistent drought. This is particularly true across Iowa, southeastern Nebraska, and much of northern Kansas. This coupled with low flow along the Missouri and a lack of snow cover is generating below-normal flood probabilities from Jefferson City to St. Charles. The only two locations where minor flooding is likely this spring through mid-May is at Chamois and at Hermann. These minor flood probabilities are 13 to 34 percent below historical norms. In the Mississippi River basin, the snow water content in the headwaters is practically non-existant. Streamflow along the Mississippi River has been closer to normal the past few weeks, though it is expected to continue falling with little significant precipitation expected for the next week or so. The lack of snow cover combined with below-normal soil moisture in place from the Twin Cities to south of St. Louis results in a below-normal risk of flooding along the Missouri-Illinois stretch of the Mississippi River. Of the 15 Mississippi River forecast points along the Missouri-Illinois border, only 4 of these (Louisiana, Missouri; Clarksville, Missouri; Mel Price Locks & Dam, Illinois; and Chester, Illinois) have minor flood probabilities this spring at or above 50%. So for the other 11 points, minor flooding is not likely, with minor flood probabilities 13 to 32 percent below normal. There are near- to below-normal flood chances along most local streams in the St. Louis Service Area over the next 90 days. Over much of eastern and central Missouri, stream flows have fallen below the 25th percentile for mid-February. In fact, flows along the North and Bourbeuse rivers have fallen below the 10th percentile. Similarly low flows have been observed over west central and southwestern Illinois. For the St. Louis service area, outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below- to near-normal precipitation for both the next 6-10 day period and the 8-14 day period. While the month of March inidcates equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal temperatures and precipitation, the 3 months of March through May indicates equal chances for temperatures, with above-normal precipitation being the favored category for the spring. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 33 59 9 16 <5 <5 LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 : 24 50 <5 10 <5 <5 Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 : 25 53 13 25 <5 10 Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 : 24 52 13 24 <5 10 Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 : 37 59 8 14 6 10 Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 : 42 61 16 37 6 11 Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 53 70 15 32 <5 8 Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : 53 70 15 28 6 13 Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 49 62 16 40 5 10 Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 : 31 63 9 19 <5 6 Alton 21.0 24.0 31.0 : 6 15 <5 6 <5 <5 Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : 50 71 15 21 <5 6 St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 34 55 21 34 7 13 Herculaneum 26.0 32.0 37.0 : 42 57 22 36 8 14 Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : 64 81 26 41 12 22 :North Fabius River Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 : 61 54 12 13 8 8 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 : 51 50 12 14 8 8 :South Fabius River Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 : 39 56 13 15 <5 <5 :North River Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 25 32 8 10 <5 <5 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 49 53 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt River New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cuivre River Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 50 49 19 22 7 7 Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 34 59 18 26 6 14 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 37 37 24 25 5 5 :Meramec River Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 38 40 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 62 67 12 12 <5 <5 :Bourbeuse River Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 51 54 10 10 <5 <5 :Meramec River Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 40 43 7 8 <5 <5 :Big River Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 52 54 23 22 <5 <5 :Meramec River Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 40 45 17 16 6 7 Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 : 44 52 36 37 15 22 Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 : 45 53 13 18 11 13 Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : 64 78 24 28 7 15 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 81 85 35 38 18 20 Carlyle 16.5 23.0 27.0 : 69 79 <5 <5 <5 <5 New Athens 79.0 82.0 85.0 : 47 48 36 39 31 28 :La Moine River Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 42 39 35 31 10 10 :Moreau River Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 71 83 36 47 18 21 :Hinkson Creek Columbia 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 49 49 28 27 9 9 :Maries River Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 31 42 18 20 <5 <5 :Gasconade River Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 29 37 23 29 9 10 :Missouri River Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 37 62 29 50 10 18 :Osage River St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 33 59 20 27 8 19 :Missouri River Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 63 76 10 13 <5 <5 Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 57 79 28 47 14 16 Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 39 73 14 17 6 13 St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 46 74 18 20 5 11 :Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 : 33 77 8 19 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Canton 7.3 8.4 10.8 13.1 15.9 19.2 21.4 LaGrange 8.2 9.3 11.7 14.0 16.8 20.1 22.3 Quincy 12.5 12.7 14.2 16.0 19.0 22.9 25.6 Lock & Dam 21 7.8 9.0 12.2 14.9 17.8 21.6 24.6 Hannibal 11.6 12.2 13.9 15.7 17.9 21.3 24.2 Saverton 8.4 9.4 12.1 14.9 17.8 21.9 24.7 Louisiana 12.0 12.1 12.7 15.7 18.0 21.5 23.6 Clarksville 18.7 20.0 22.1 25.8 28.4 32.1 34.2 Winfield 18.6 20.1 22.2 25.8 28.8 32.1 34.1 Grafton 15.4 15.5 15.9 17.6 20.9 23.7 27.9 Alton 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 22.5 Mel Price LD 10.1 10.7 15.8 21.0 25.6 30.2 32.1 St. Louis 12.0 14.9 20.8 27.2 33.1 38.0 40.2 Herculaneum 10.2 13.1 18.9 25.1 30.8 35.7 37.9 Chester 14.4 16.1 23.5 29.1 35.6 41.1 43.0 :North Fabius River Ewing 5.7 6.9 9.2 11.5 14.3 17.6 21.2 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 5.8 7.5 9.6 12.1 15.2 17.7 21.8 :South Fabius River Taylor 4.7 5.6 7.0 9.3 12.2 15.0 18.4 :North River Palmyra 5.4 6.4 7.6 9.6 13.0 15.5 17.8 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 10.7 11.7 14.6 16.9 19.1 20.8 21.6 :Salt River New London 5.2 7.0 9.2 9.7 11.3 13.0 13.4 :Cuivre River Troy 10.5 12.0 15.2 21.1 24.4 26.7 29.2 Old Monroe 15.4 16.0 18.3 22.3 26.0 29.0 30.4 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 7.3 8.7 12.1 16.7 19.8 22.2 23.2 :Meramec River Steelville 3.0 4.1 6.6 10.3 14.1 16.8 19.8 Sullivan 6.2 7.7 9.8 12.6 16.8 21.4 25.7 :Bourbeuse River Union 7.4 8.9 11.9 15.2 18.7 22.0 25.4 :Meramec River Pacific 5.1 6.9 10.4 13.6 17.4 21.9 26.0 :Big River Byrnesville 8.1 9.1 12.0 16.5 19.7 22.9 25.5 :Meramec River Eureka 8.5 10.0 13.5 16.5 23.2 28.8 35.2 Valley Park 10.6 12.1 13.4 16.1 25.6 34.8 39.2 Fenton 15.0 16.5 18.4 21.5 27.5 34.5 38.5 Arnold 13.8 16.6 20.7 27.5 34.1 37.7 40.6 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 12.5 15.4 19.7 22.6 25.2 27.2 28.7 Carlyle 13.7 14.4 16.1 18.6 20.7 21.6 22.5 New Athens 70.9 71.3 72.6 75.4 85.7 90.1 92.3 :La Moine River Ripley 10.1 12.5 16.7 20.1 25.1 26.9 29.1 :Missouri River Jefferson City 11.9 14.2 17.7 20.7 25.3 30.1 35.6 :Osage River St. Thomas 7.3 8.5 11.8 12.9 14.7 22.3 23.6 Mari-Osa Campgrou 9.4 12.0 14.6 17.5 20.1 24.1 26.9 :Missouri River Chamois 8.7 10.9 15.5 18.5 22.6 28.2 29.8 Hermann 11.4 15.9 19.0 21.9 26.8 34.2 34.9 Washington 9.0 12.7 15.8 18.5 23.1 30.1 31.8 St. Charles 16.5 19.3 22.0 24.0 27.9 34.8 35.9 :Black River Annapolis 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 9.7 14.0 16.9 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Canton 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.8 LaGrange 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.7 Quincy 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.3 10.9 10.9 Lock & Dam 21 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.3 Hannibal 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 Saverton 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.0 4.5 4.3 Louisiana 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 Clarksville 16.6 16.5 16.1 15.5 14.7 14.0 13.8 Winfield 16.5 16.3 15.9 15.3 14.6 13.9 13.7 Grafton 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 Alton 18.7 18.4 17.1 15.2 14.4 14.3 14.3 Mel Price LD 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.9 Chester 7.5 6.8 6.1 5.2 4.2 3.3 3.0 :North Fabius River Ewing 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 :South Fabius River Taylor 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 :North River Palmyra 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.1 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 :Salt River New London 5.4 4.9 4.5 3.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Cuivre River Troy 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 Old Monroe 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.2 10.3 9.5 9.5 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 :Meramec River Steelville 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 Sullivan 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 :Bourbeuse River Union 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Big River Byrnesville 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 :Meramec River Eureka 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 Fenton 3.8 3.0 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 Arnold 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 6.6 6.0 3.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 Carlyle 13.5 13.2 12.9 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 New Athens 69.6 69.4 68.9 68.8 68.6 68.5 68.5 :La Moine River Ripley 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.3 :Missouri River Jefferson City 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 :Osage River St. Thomas 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.7 :Missouri River Hermann 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.8 St. Charles 8.5 8.1 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on February 29, 2024. $$ Fuchs