####018016285#### FGUS73 KGLD 160117 ESFGLD COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199- 203-NEC057-087-145-161330- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 617 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2024 /717 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which refers to major rivers located... - In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado - In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska - In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton counties. These river systems include: -The Republican River -The North and South Forks of the Republican River -The North and South Forks of the Solomon River -The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers -Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks This outlook is valid from February 15 though February 29. Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive precipitation. For calendar year so far, the region has seen 0.1 inches up to 2 inches of precipitation. Most of this has fallen as snow that has largely melted by now. Locations southeast of a line from Oberlin, KS to Wallace, KS have seen the highest amounts of precipitation so far. Small and isolated snow banks can still be found in the southeastern HSA and will easily infiltrate into the ground when melted. Current soil temperatures are ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s, according to the latest two and four inch soil temperatures, courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet. Near-surface soil moisture conditions are currently near to above normal over much of the area, due to recent precipitation. Above normal temperatures and sunshine for the upcoming week are expected to dry the soil. The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows a small amount of extreme drought over the far eastern HSA becoming less severe to the west. From Kansas highway 25 and west, about half of the area is abnormally dry with the other half not in a drought classification. The 3-month outlook (valid for February 1 - April 30), has drought conditions improving, with the potential for drought removal across the Goodland Service Area. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov), shows the latest 8-14 day outlook forecasting above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for the February 22-28 period. The latest 3-month outlook for February through April, forecasts near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at Enders Dam, 19 percent. For the Medicine Creek Dam, 89 percent. For the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 52 percent. For the Red Willow Dam, 47 percent and for the Trenton Dam, 55 percent. All of these are increasing from over the past two weeks. Over the next two weeks, flooding does not look likely due to the lack of organized precipitation events and mostly melted snow pack. Above normal temperatures will work to dry out the soil over the outlook period. SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL, MO FEB 14, 2024 NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1 ATTN WFO'S SERVED BY MBRFC. This Spring Flood Outlook is not for public release until Thursday, 15 February 2024. This Spring Outlook is for the Missouri River drainage which includes rivers in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK Flood risk this Spring within the Missouri River basin varies from near-normal to below-normal. No areas have an above-normal risk for flooding this Spring. To provide context, a normal risk indicates that a location that typically experiences Spring time flooding is likely to see flooding again this year. However, a normal risk for flooding does not necessarily mean that a location is expected to flood. For those locations which do not typically experience flooding, a normal risk simply indicates that flooding is again not expected this year. By the same token, a reduced risk of flooding does not necessarily mean that flooding is not expected. On the other hand, an increased risk does not necessarily indicate flooding is likely. Much of the Missouri River basin has now come out of a prolonged three-to-four year long drought. The latest Drought Monitor, issued 08 February 2024 categorizes 20 percent of the Missouri River basin as being in drought. This compares with 63 percent one year ago. Mountain snowpack is below, to well below average. The headwaters of the Platte River have a better snowpack than the northern Rockies, but even here the snowpack is below normal. Flooding in the mountainous areas due to snowmelt is not likely this year. Water supply forecasts issued in early February by the National Weather Service project lower than average April-September runoff volumes for the mountainous west for all but the Bighorn basin. More information regarding current Water Supply Forecasts can be accessed at weather.gov/mbrfc/water There is widespread, but very shallow plains snow stretching across eastern Montana, northeastern Wyoming, and across portions of the Dakotas. There is also a swath of shallow snow running from the Denver area up into the Nebraska Panhandle. At this time, plains snowpack will figure little in enhancing flood risk, at least as far as fueling runoff. However, in the absence of an insulating snowpack, soils have been allowed to develop a fairly deep frost depth in some areas. Frozen ground is expected to play a factor in enhancing runoff in areas of North Dakota and Montana. River ice action has posed some problems already this winter. One notable case being the ice jams along the lower Missouri River that formed as a result of the mid-January arctic blast that affected the entire region. Ice jams were reported from just upstream of Sioux City, Iowa downstream through the Kansas City, Missouri reach. The Missouri River at Omaha set a new low stage record on 16 January. No flooding occurred due to this event, but water intake users were concerned over the resulting low stages. Other ice jams this season have been reported along the Platte, Loup, Elkhorn, Niobrara, and North Platte Rivers in Nebraska; the Yellowstone, Beaverhead, and Gallatin Rivers in Montana; and the White River in South Dakota. So far, any flooding associated with these jams has been minor. With the recent warmer-than-normal temperatures, river ice along many of the rivers in the northern plains is either rotting in place, or has moved out altogether. Although the risk for future ice jam freeze-up or break-up flooding is now considered low, wherever river ice remains, so does the risk for ice jam flooding. Please note, the probabilistic quantifications that form the basis for this Spring Flood Outlook do not take into account the presence of river ice. Springtime flooding in the lower one-third of the basin, including southern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and the state of Missouri, is driven by typical thunderstorm activity. Flooding is projected to occur again this Spring in this region of the basin. We have already experienced flooding in this area as recently as late January, where minor-to-moderate flooding occurred along four tributaries located in eastern Kansas and central Missouri due to a rain-on-snow event. The following state by state flood potential discussions are based on long-range probabilistic river outlooks developed this week. Again, it must be stressed, these outlooks do not take into account the presence of river ice. In Kansas, Stranger Creek is expected to have moderate level flooding, while the Little Osage and Marias des Cygnes Rivers are projected to have minor flooding. In the state of Missouri, the Crooked, Blackwater, and Lamine Rivers are outlooked to experience moderate flooding, as do Wakenda, Petite Saline, and Big Creeks. The Tarkio, Platte, Moreau, Big Piney, Little Osage, Marmaton, Sac, and South Grand Rivers are projected to see minor flooding, as does Moniteau Creek. The Missouri River downstream of Kansas City to the mouth could also see minor flooding. In Nebraska, the North Platte River at North Platte is likely to have minor flooding. In Iowa, the Little Sioux River is expected to have minor flooding. These projections of river stages are based on current observed states of streamflow, soil moisture, and snowpack, coupled with future precipitation and temperature patterns and anticipated operational hydrologic changes such as reservoir releases and canal diversions. "Outlooks" are provided for long-range (weeks to months) projections based on climatological patterns of precipitation and temperature. "Forecasts" are provided for short-term (days) projections based on forecast patterns of precipitation and temperature. The uncertainty of these products varies from season to season and location to location. The uncertainty of forecasts tend be less than the uncertainty of outlooks due to their shorter lead time. Users of these products are encouraged to contact their nearest National Weather Service Forecast Office for continued updates of meteorological conditions which can have significant impacts on flood preparedness planning and flood fighting activities. For additional quantitative information please refer to AHPS products for probabilistic outlooks of potential flooding. Refer to short-term flood forecasts and products, if any are currently issued, for information about ongoing or near-term anticipated flooding. The next Spring Outlook is scheduled for release on February 29th. Additional river information, including the monthly Water Supply Outlook, can be accessed at the following URL: http://weather.gov/mbrfc Current Snow Conditions The conditions listed below are based on observations and model data as of Wednesday morning, February 14th. Montana Plains Snow depths of 1-4 inches are being reported across the plains of the Milk basin in northern Montana with water equivalents less than 0.5 inches. Elsewhere across eastern Montana, snow depths are generally less than 2 inches with water equivalents less than 0.75 inches. Wyoming and Colorado Plains Snow depths of generally less than 3 inches are being reported across the plains of Wyoming and Colorado with water equivalents less than 0.5 inches. Mountainous West Snowpack conditions in the mountainous areas of the basin are generally below normal. In Montana, the Jefferson, Musselshell, Missouri headwaters, Sun, Teton, and Marais River basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (50-75%). The St. Mary and Milk basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (60-70%). In Wyoming, the Tongue, Bighorn, Powder, Wind, and Yellowstone River basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (60-80%). The higher elevations of the North Platte River basin are reporting a below normal snowpack (75-85%). In Colorado, the higher elevations of the South Platte River basin are reporting a near normal snowpack (90-100%). North Dakota Snow depths of less than 4 inches are being reported across the western half of North Dakota with water equivalents less than 0.5 inches. Little or no snow is being reported across the eastern half of North Dakota. South Dakota The Black Hills in South Dakota have 10-15 inches of snow depth with water equivalents in the 1-3 inch range. Little or no snow is being reported across the remainder of South Dakota. Iowa No snow is being reported across western Iowa. Nebraska Snow depths of less than 3 inches are being reported across the Nebraska panhandle with water equivalents less than 0.3 inches. No snow is being reported across the remainder of the state. Missouri and Kansas No snow is being reported across Missouri and Kansas. Current Soil Moisture Conditions The US Drought Monitor indicates that portions of the Missouri River basin are experiencing below normal soil moisture conditions. Moderate to severe drought is indicated across central Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, and western Iowa. Abnormally dry to moderate drought is indicated across much of Montana, Wyoming, northern North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and central Missouri. Isolated frost depth reports suggest that soils across Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota have frost penetration ranging from 0.5-3 feet. Frost depths of less than 0.5 feet are being reported across Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. Current River Conditions A large majority of rivers across the northern half of the Missouri River basin are iced over. Generally, river levels across the basin are currently running near to below normal, or estimated to be so if the rivers are frozen. The exception is over southeastern Kansas and northern Nebraska, where rivers are running above normal due to recent snowmelt and rain. A summary of river flow conditions at selected river stations for February 14th follows: Long Term Current Mean (CFS) (CFS) James River - Huron, SD 83 796 Big Sioux River - Akron, IA 538 1015 (EST) Platte River - Louisville, NE 6550 10800 Kansas River - Desoto, KS 2560 1730 Gasconade River - Jerome, MO 1690 1120 Missouri River - Omaha, NE 19500 18800 Missouri River - Rulo, NE 25500 29400 Missouri River - St. Joseph, MO 27900 33900 Missouri River - Waverly, MO 33000 39400 Missouri River - Hermann, MO 53500 52700 END MBRFC $$