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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

830 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024





...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...





In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during

the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola

Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the

Sabine River will rise above 18.2 feet during the next 90 days.





        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

        valid for February 14, 2024 through May 14, 2024





     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---



Lake Fork Creek

 Quitman 4S        16 15.6 16.7 16.8 18.3 18.7 18.7 18.9 20.1 21.6

Sabine River

 Mineola 4S        14 15.9 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.2 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.0

 Gladewater 3WSW   26 22.7 28.8 32.5 33.8 34.1 35.2 36.2 37.2 38.5

 Longview          25 19.4 24.4 26.4 28.5 29.2 32.0 33.5 34.0 35.8

 Beckville 8NE     26 23.4 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.5 28.4 29.2 30.4 31.5

 Logansport        28 26.9 27.4 31.0 31.6 32.5 33.9 35.0 36.2 37.1

Big Sandy Creek

 Big Sandy 4NE     17 10.7 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.6 15.9 16.4 18.8

Rabbit Creek

 Kilgore           10  8.9 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.1 14.0 17.3





 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Lk Cherokee  280.7 280.7 280.7 280.7 280.7 280.7 281.0 281.3 281.7

Lk Martin    306.1 306.3 306.3 306.4 306.4 306.7 306.9 307.5 307.8

Lk Murvaul   266.2 266.2 266.2 266.3 266.8 267.1 267.3 267.6 268.4



This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed 

using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological 

and stream flow data.  These probabilities also account for the 

current river flows and soil moisture conditions.  By providing the 

complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk 

associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.



Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the 

internet at this URL:  

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address 

URL is all lower case).



Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third 

Thursday of every month.



$$



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