####018017141#### FGUS73 KDMX 291357 ESFDMX IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051- 053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127- 135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195- 197-141200- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 757 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This flood outlook is for the NWS Des Moines service area. It covers the time period for early March through early June 2024. It includes the following rivers and their tributaries in north central, central and south central Iowa... Iowa, Cedar, Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon, Nishnabotna, 102, Thompson and Chariton Rivers This outlook is the second in a series of three outlooks for the spring flood season. The next outlook will be issued on March 14th. You may also refer to the NWS Des Moines Website for more information at... http://www.weather.gov/desmoines . ...Flood Outlook Highlights... * The risk of minor, moderate and major flooding is near to below normal at all locations. * It is important to continue monitoring weather and river conditions--as well as future outlooks--for any changes to the flood threat. Future weather--including amount, frequency and extent of precipitation as well as rate of snowmelt--can be big factors in any potential spring flood threat. * Maps and graphics concerning the risk of flooding are available on the NWS Des Moines Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=dmx . On that page click on the tab above the map labeled Experimental Long-Range Flood Risk. * You may also refer to our web site for more information at http://www.weather.gov/desmoines . This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for river basins in the NWS Des Moines service area. This outlook is divided into three parts--the first part for the probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water and the final part for low water. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Cedar River Janesville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :West Fork Cedar River Finchford 17.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Winnebago River Mason City 10.0 14.5 15.5 : 7 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Shell Rock River Shell Rock 12.0 18.0 20.0 : 9 40 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek New Hartford 12.5 14.0 15.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River Cedar Falls 89.0 92.0 94.0 : 12 48 <5 20 <5 10 :Black Hawk Creek Hudson 14.0 15.0 19.0 : 26 42 11 27 <5 <5 :Cedar River Waterloo 13.0 19.0 21.0 : 7 32 <5 5 <5 <5 :Iowa River Rowan 12.5 15.0 17.0 : <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 Marshalltown 19.0 23.0 26.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Tama Hwy E49 12.5 13.0 14.0 : <5 21 <5 17 <5 <5 :South Skunk River Ames W Riverside 12.5 16.0 16.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ioway Creek Ames Lincoln Way 10.0 14.0 15.5 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Skunk River Ames US 30 21.5 23.5 24.5 : 10 12 <5 5 <5 <5 Colfax 18.0 19.0 21.0 : 9 16 6 6 <5 <5 Oskaloosa 24.5 28.5 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Fork Des Moines River Algona 17.0 18.0 22.0 : 13 28 <5 12 <5 <5 Dakota City 20.0 24.0 28.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boone River Webster City 14.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek Grimes 14.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Raccoon River Jefferson 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Perry 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 34 51 14 33 8 20 :South Raccoon River Redfield 20.0 24.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Raccoon River Van Meter R Ave 17.0 22.0 23.0 : 11 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 Des Moines IA 28 36.0 38.0 40.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Des Moines Fleur 12.0 16.0 25.0 : 42 66 10 22 <5 <5 :North River Norwalk Hwy R57 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 6 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Middle River Indianola 23.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South River Ackworth 29.0 30.0 32.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek Bussey 25.0 30.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :West Fork Des Moines River Estherville 10.0 13.0 14.5 : <5 22 <5 8 <5 <5 Emmetsburg 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Humboldt 10.0 13.0 14.0 : 5 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Des Moines River Fort Dodge 10.5 16.0 17.0 : 6 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stratford 19.0 25.0 27.0 : 6 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 Des Moines 2nd Av 23.0 26.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Des Moines SE 6th 24.0 26.0 30.0 : 22 45 <5 17 <5 <5 Eddyville 63.0 68.0 70.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Ottumwa 11.5 15.0 19.0 : 11 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Thompson River Davis City 12.0 20.0 24.0 : 12 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Chariton River Promise City 25.0 28.0 31.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chariton River Chariton 19.5 26.0 29.0 : 8 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Moulton 36.0 37.0 38.0 : 8 8 5 5 <5 <5 :East Nishnabotna River Atlantic 19.0 23.0 24.0 : 10 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Fork 102 River Bedford 24.0 25.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Cedar River Janesville 1.8 2.3 2.8 4.4 5.7 8.7 10.7 :West Fork Cedar River Finchford 6.7 7.2 8.3 9.5 11.4 13.3 14.6 :Winnebago River Mason City 4.9 5.1 5.7 7.5 8.5 9.4 10.7 :Shell Rock River Shell Rock 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.5 12.5 :Beaver Creek New Hartford 1.9 2.4 3.3 4.6 7.2 10.3 12.3 :Cedar River Cedar Falls 79.6 79.9 81.7 84.1 86.1 89.8 91.7 :Black Hawk Creek Hudson 6.5 7.0 8.3 11.6 14.2 15.2 15.8 :Cedar River Waterloo 6.0 6.2 7.0 8.2 9.3 11.6 14.9 :Iowa River Rowan 4.4 4.7 5.7 6.8 8.3 10.8 12.3 Marshalltown 10.7 11.1 11.9 13.2 14.9 17.0 17.8 Tama Hwy E49 2.1 2.9 4.0 6.7 8.8 11.6 12.4 :South Skunk River Ames W Riverside 3.7 4.4 6.0 7.2 9.3 10.4 11.5 :Ioway Creek Ames Lincoln Way 2.6 3.0 4.1 4.9 6.0 7.2 12.3 :South Skunk River Ames US 30 11.0 12.4 14.5 16.4 18.5 21.4 23.4 Colfax 8.0 9.0 11.5 13.6 16.2 17.9 19.2 Oskaloosa 8.3 9.5 13.6 16.2 19.1 21.8 22.8 :East Fork Des Moines River Algona 8.6 8.8 10.1 12.6 15.2 17.1 17.6 Dakota City 8.6 8.7 9.2 11.5 13.5 15.7 16.9 :Boone River Webster City 3.1 3.5 4.8 6.6 8.2 9.3 10.8 :Beaver Creek Grimes 3.4 4.2 6.0 7.4 10.1 11.5 12.8 :North Raccoon River Jefferson 5.7 6.0 8.2 10.8 12.6 14.8 16.3 Perry 5.4 6.1 10.4 13.9 15.5 19.0 21.4 :South Raccoon River Redfield 2.8 3.2 5.9 6.8 8.6 12.0 15.9 :Raccoon River Van Meter R Ave 3.5 4.7 8.7 11.0 13.2 17.7 20.6 Des Moines IA 28 20.9 22.0 26.3 28.8 31.3 35.4 37.2 Des Moines Fleur 3.9 5.2 9.9 11.7 13.1 16.4 18.3 :North River Norwalk Hwy R57 5.0 5.7 9.7 14.9 18.3 21.5 22.1 :Middle River Indianola 8.5 9.9 13.6 15.4 17.1 19.8 21.9 :South River Ackworth 7.0 7.9 10.3 12.3 18.5 23.4 28.0 :Cedar Creek Bussey 4.5 6.2 8.6 11.6 14.1 19.4 21.5 :West Fork Des Moines River Estherville 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.3 7.4 9.1 9.9 Emmetsburg 1.7 1.9 2.4 4.0 7.1 8.9 10.0 Humboldt 4.6 4.8 5.3 6.8 8.5 9.8 10.0 :Des Moines River Fort Dodge 4.5 4.7 5.5 7.4 8.6 10.1 10.8 Stratford 6.5 6.8 8.7 12.5 14.5 16.9 19.4 Des Moines 2nd Av 15.8 15.9 17.6 20.0 20.6 21.5 21.8 Des Moines SE 6th 11.2 12.1 18.0 21.1 23.8 24.8 25.9 Eddyville 48.9 49.7 57.6 59.4 60.6 61.5 62.8 Ottumwa 2.3 2.8 7.0 8.7 10.2 11.7 13.1 :Thompson River Davis City 0.7 3.4 4.4 5.6 9.0 14.4 17.5 :South Fork Chariton River Promise City 2.9 5.9 10.2 18.4 21.1 22.7 25.9 :Chariton River Chariton 7.9 11.6 14.2 16.1 16.7 19.0 20.3 Moulton 19.4 19.6 26.2 29.0 33.2 35.2 36.9 :East Nishnabotna River Atlantic 2.4 4.8 6.5 11.4 13.8 19.0 20.5 :East Fork 102 River Bedford 11.7 13.8 14.4 16.7 19.0 20.3 21.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Cedar River Janesville 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 :West Fork Cedar River Finchford 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 :Winnebago River Mason City 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 :Shell Rock River Shell Rock 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 :Beaver Creek New Hartford 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 :Cedar River Cedar Falls 79.0 78.8 78.6 78.5 78.5 78.4 78.3 :Black Hawk Creek Hudson 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 :Cedar River Waterloo 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 :Iowa River Rowan 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 Marshalltown 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 Tama Hwy E49 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 :South Skunk River Ames W Riverside 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 :Ioway Creek Ames Lincoln Way 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 :South Skunk River Ames US 30 9.7 9.2 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.5 8.5 Colfax 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 Oskaloosa 8.7 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.2 7.0 :East Fork Des Moines River Algona 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.5 5.7 5.7 Dakota City 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 :Boone River Webster City 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 :Beaver Creek Grimes 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 :North Raccoon River Jefferson 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 Perry 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.0 :South Raccoon River Redfield 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 :Raccoon River Van Meter R Ave 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 Des Moines IA 28 20.3 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.1 19.0 Des Moines Fleur 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 :North River Norwalk Hwy R57 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 :Middle River Indianola 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 :South River Ackworth 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 :Cedar Creek Bussey 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 :West Fork Des Moines River Estherville 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 Emmetsburg 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Humboldt 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 :Des Moines River Fort Dodge 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 Stratford 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 Des Moines 2nd Av 15.3 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.6 Des Moines SE 6th 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.7 Eddyville 48.1 47.9 47.6 47.4 47.2 47.0 46.8 Ottumwa 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 :Thompson River Davis City 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 :South Fork Chariton River Promise City 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 :Chariton River Chariton 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Moulton 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 :East Nishnabotna River Atlantic 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :East Fork 102 River Bedford 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover and 30- to 90-day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service/s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. ...Current Conditions as of February 29th 2024... * River Levels...river levels were running generally near to below normal. * Soil Moisture...soil moisture was running below to much below normal. * Snowpack...some light snow existed across the far northwest. Snow water equivalents were less than 0.1 inches. * Frost Depth...ground frost did not exist. * Drought Conditions...Extreme Drought (D3) conditions existed across portions of the northeast and east central. Generally, severe Drought (D2) to Moderate Drought (D1) conditions existed elsewhere except the far northwest and far south where Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions existed. $$ Zogg