####018007714#### FGUS73 KSGF 291507 ESFSGF MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-031200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Springfield MO 900 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This flood outlook is for the NWS Springfield service area covering far southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. It covers the time period for early March through May, 2024. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... * The risk of minor, moderate and major flooding is near to below normal at all locations. * It is important to continue monitoring weather and river conditions--as well as future outlooks--for any changes to the flood threat. Future weather--including amount, frequency and extent of precipitation as well as rate of snowmelt--can be big factors in any potential spring flood threat. * Maps and graphics concerning the risk of flooding are available on the NWS Springfield Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sgf. On that page click on the tab above the map labeled Long-Range Flood Risk. This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for river basins in the NWS Springfield service area. This outlook is divided into three parts--the first part for the probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water and the final part for low water. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Osage River Fulton 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 56 61 41 47 <5 <5 Horton 41.0 45.0 50.0 : 76 84 21 31 <5 <5 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 38.0 42.0 43.0 : 23 29 12 13 9 11 Nevada 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 62 79 32 46 12 13 :Osage River Taberville 23.0 34.0 46.0 : 37 54 13 15 <5 <5 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 48 51 40 47 11 13 :Gasconade River Hazelgreen 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 19 26 9 18 5 9 :Roubidoux Creek Waynesville 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 24 47 6 9 <5 <5 :Big Piney Fort Leonard Wood 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 54 82 18 36 6 8 :Gasconade River Jerome 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 27 47 13 21 6 8 :Spring River Carthage 10.0 14.0 20.0 : 25 30 9 9 <5 <5 Waco 19.0 30.0 33.0 : 29 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 Baxter Springs 14.0 22.0 30.0 : 23 30 9 12 <5 <5 :Shoal Creek Joplin 11.5 16.0 18.0 : 8 16 5 6 <5 <5 :Elk River Tiff City 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 14 24 6 9 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Osage River Fulton 6.1 7.3 15.3 23.0 27.1 28.0 29.2 Horton 35.3 36.5 41.1 43.1 44.3 47.5 48.6 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 10.5 12.7 22.4 32.6 38.0 42.8 43.7 Nevada 4.4 7.1 13.4 23.9 27.4 32.3 35.7 :Osage River Taberville 12.0 13.3 17.0 21.3 24.5 35.1 38.6 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 7.2 7.3 8.9 15.0 23.2 28.5 29.6 :Spring River Carthage 3.5 3.9 4.7 6.8 10.1 13.9 16.6 Waco 2.9 4.3 9.0 12.9 20.5 25.3 27.1 Baxter Springs 3.6 4.9 6.4 9.5 13.2 21.9 25.9 :Shoal Creek Joplin 2.1 2.1 4.4 5.9 7.9 10.2 16.6 :Elk River Tiff City 3.8 4.8 6.6 9.0 13.1 15.9 22.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Osage River Fulton 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 Horton 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.0 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.6 Nevada 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Osage River Taberville 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water information. ...Current Conditions as of February 29th, 2024... * River Levels...River levels were running generally near to below normal. * Soil Moisture...Soil moisture was running below to much below normal. * Drought Conditions...Generally, Moderate Drought (D1) conditions existed across the northeast and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions existed across much of the rest of the area. A few locations across far southern Missouri were not in drought conditions. $$ Titus