####018004228#### FGUS71 KBOX 291538 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-071545- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1038 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1015 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... The winter/spring freshwater flood potential through mid March is near normal across eastern Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts and is below normal elsewhere in southern New England. For a graphical depiction of this outlook, go to: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This outlook is based on current and forecast conditions including temperatures, precipitation, snow cover, snow water content, river flows, soil moisture, and ice coverage. ...RECENT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION... February was dry and mild in southern New England with below average precipitation and above average temperatures. Precipitation for the month only totaled 0.50 to 1 inch across northern Massachusetts while 1 to 2.50 inches fell farther south in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. These totals were 1 to 3 inches below normal but locations from Boston to the Merrimack Valley saw departures of 3.5 inches below normal. Temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees above normal in February but locations near the Berkshires saw departures of 3 to 5 degrees above normal for the month. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER CONTENT... The ground is bare across southern New England. The only locations reporting snow on the ground were found at elevations above 1000 feet in the Berkshires where up to 6 inches of snow was found in shaded areas. This sparse snowpack contains at most an inch or two of water. Both snow depths and water equivalents are well below normal for late February. In fact, the extent and depth of the snowpack seems to be about a month ahead of schedule and would be more typical of late March or early April. ...SOIL MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... The dry weather pattern this month allowed the previously wet conditions to return closer to normal. Soil moisture was near normal across most of southern New England and abnormally wet conditions were confined to Connecticut. Similarly, ground water levels were near to above normal but not as high as they were in January when many were setting all time monthly highs. River and stream flows were near to above normal and were highest across coastal southern New England due to recent rainfall. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... Through the middle of March, odds strongly favor above average temperatures and to a lesser degree above average precipitation. The overall weather pattern is likely to become more active but mild, bringing more chances for rain versus snow. ...SUMMARY... The winter/spring freshwater flood potential is near normal across eastern Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts and is below normal elsewhere in southern New England. Despite near to above normal soil moisture, river and stream flows, and groundwater levels the lack of a snowpack across most of southern New England supports a below normal potential for freshwater flooding through the middle of March. However, these indices are above normal in Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, and in southeast Massachusetts due to recent rain and snow, which leads to a freshwater flood outlook which is near normal through mid March. As a reminder, flooding rain can occur any time during the year, even when the flood outlook is below normal. The Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook can provide a heads-up for excessive rainfall over the next five days: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 14th. $$ JD/AED