####018014632#### FGUS73 KIND 291635 ESFIND INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065- 067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135- 139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-050200- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1135 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number Two for Central and much of Southern Indiana... The spring flood potential outlook covering the months of March, April, and May for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White Rivers and their tributaries is slightly below normal. The risk is lower than last year. A slightly below normal risk means that minor flooding is expected on the Wabash, lower White, and lower East Fork White, with isolated moderate flooding possible. Over the last three months, precipitation across central and southern portions of the state ranged from around 70 percent to 100 percent of normal, with wetter conditions of 100 to 130 percent of normal across northern Indiana. During much of the fall and winter drought conditions were in place across the state. While the pattern became more active and trended to wetter than normal in January, it was not enough to completely recover the deficit. Below normal precipitation for the month of February then kept an area of abnormally dry conditions remaining on the drought monitor. Precipitation over the last 14 days was generally half an inch to two inches over the northern half of the state and from two tenths of an inch to an inch over the southern half. Soil moisture across central and southern Indiana is below normal in the 10th to 30th percentile, and normal across northern Indiana. Snow depth is below normal as well, with less than two inches of snow depth in a few counties near Lake Michigan and no snow depth across central or southern Indiana. Seven day average streamflow is currently near normal across the northern half of the state and below normal across the southern half of the state. The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of half an inch near the Michigan border increasing to 1.25 inches over the southern half of the state. The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a lean toward above normal precipitation with above normal temperatures likely. With the overall pattern and teleconnections, the first two weeks of March look like a more active rainfall pattern before things turn drier in late March. Going forward, the 90 day seasonal outlook for March through May shows a lean toward both above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. With somewhat dry soils and normal to below normal streamflow currently, and just a lean toward above normal precipitation this spring, the outlook favors slightly below normal flood risk for central and southern Indiana rivers. There is no appreciable river ice in central and southern Indiana, and with no obvious extended cold spell on the horizon, there is no anticipated risk of ice jam flooding. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Big Blue River Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 30 28 17 18 <5 <5 :Driftwood River Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 61 72 19 25 <5 <5 :Eagle Creek Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 11 18 6 9 <5 <5 :East Fork White River Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 38 35 <5 <5 <5 <5 Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 71 76 11 15 <5 <5 Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 56 61 15 18 <5 <5 Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 86 93 27 26 <5 <5 Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 36 38 18 18 <5 5 Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 60 66 16 19 <5 <5 :Eel River Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 54 61 18 22 <5 <5 :Flatrock River Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 48 44 5 <5 <5 <5 :Muscatatuck River Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 32 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sugar Creek Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 12 23 <5 18 <5 9 :Tippecanoe River Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 30 44 <5 6 <5 <5 :Wabash River Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 85 90 13 17 <5 <5 Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 92 >95 13 19 <5 <5 Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 83 91 22 28 <5 <5 Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 77 82 37 46 <5 <5 Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 92 >95 18 21 <5 <5 Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 91 >95 22 29 <5 <5 Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 90 91 18 13 <5 <5 Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 70 77 19 25 <5 <5 :White River Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 21 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 41 55 7 10 <5 <5 Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 40 53 7 10 <5 <5 Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 84 87 20 23 <5 <5 Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 86 90 21 23 <5 <5 Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 91 91 28 32 6 6 Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 32 41 <5 <5 <5 <5 Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 35 43 7 6 <5 <5 Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 70 79 23 34 <5 <5 Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 91 90 32 29 11 6 Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 41 51 7 6 <5 <5 Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 59 82 12 20 <5 <5 :Wildcat Creek Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 51 62 10 18 6 7 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Shelbyville 7.4 7.9 9.4 10.8 13.6 16.1 17.4 :Driftwood River Edinburgh 6.7 8.1 9.6 12.1 13.4 14.9 15.1 :Eagle Creek Zionsville 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.8 9.2 11.5 :East Fork White River Columbus 2.1 2.7 4.1 7.7 10.5 12.4 13.3 Rivervale 14.5 17.5 19.5 22.8 26.5 30.3 32.9 Bedford 12.7 15.3 17.3 20.8 24.1 28.2 30.6 Seymour 9.1 11.3 13.8 16.1 17.1 18.0 18.5 Shoals 7.7 9.7 12.5 16.5 22.9 27.4 28.7 Williams 4.7 5.7 6.8 8.8 12.1 15.4 17.9 :Eel River Bowling Green 8.4 9.6 12.0 15.6 19.2 20.9 21.8 :Flatrock River Columbus 6.0 6.9 8.9 10.9 12.8 14.5 15.0 :Muscatatuck River Vernon 5.6 6.9 9.9 14.4 18.0 20.7 24.0 :Sugar Creek Crawfordsville 6.5 7.1 8.6 10.3 12.7 15.3 16.2 :Tippecanoe River Delphi 4.1 4.6 5.8 6.9 8.3 10.0 11.5 :Wabash River Covington 13.4 14.9 17.9 19.8 21.8 24.5 25.4 Hutsonville Legac 15.1 16.8 19.0 20.4 22.6 24.3 25.0 Lafayette 8.8 9.9 12.3 14.8 17.6 19.6 20.9 Mount Carmel 13.8 15.8 19.6 22.7 27.0 29.3 30.6 Montezuma 12.5 14.8 18.9 20.4 23.2 24.9 27.2 Riverton 13.6 15.5 17.7 19.2 21.6 23.6 24.4 Terre Haute 14.1 16.5 19.7 21.1 23.9 25.2 26.2 Vincennes 11.5 12.7 15.6 17.7 21.1 23.5 25.1 :White River Anderson 6.3 6.7 7.6 8.8 9.6 11.2 13.7 Eagle Valley Powe 598.6 599.1 600.4 602.3 604.3 606.6 607.3 Centerton 6.0 6.6 8.4 10.9 13.5 15.8 16.2 Elliston 15.3 17.1 19.4 22.0 24.4 26.3 27.1 Edwardsport 12.9 14.3 16.8 19.3 21.2 24.1 24.6 Hazleton 13.6 16.4 19.3 21.0 24.4 27.1 28.3 Indianapolis 6.8 7.8 8.3 10.0 11.5 13.1 15.6 Muncie 5.8 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.7 8.5 10.0 Noblesville 8.1 8.6 9.7 11.7 14.9 16.8 18.4 Nora 5.7 7.0 8.0 9.6 11.9 14.6 17.1 Newberry 8.3 9.7 12.3 15.7 18.5 21.5 22.5 Petersburg 13.7 16.9 19.6 21.3 24.3 26.1 26.9 Ravenswood 2.2 3.3 4.2 5.5 7.0 8.8 10.9 Spencer 8.6 9.0 12.1 15.0 17.8 20.4 21.0 :Wildcat Creek Lafayette 6.3 7.2 8.6 10.1 12.8 15.1 21.3 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Shelbyville 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 :Driftwood River Edinburgh 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 :Eagle Creek Zionsville 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 :East Fork White River Rivervale 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.2 Bedford 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 Seymour 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 Shoals 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 Williams 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 :Eel River Bowling Green 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 :Flatrock River Columbus 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 :Muscatatuck River Vernon 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 :Sugar Creek Crawfordsville 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 :Tippecanoe River Delphi 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 :Wabash River Covington 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.7 Hutsonville Legac 7.1 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 Lafayette 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 Mount Carmel 6.3 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.1 Montezuma 5.7 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9 Riverton 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.0 Terre Haute 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.0 Vincennes 5.4 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 :White River Anderson 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 Eagle Valley Powe 594.8 594.6 594.5 594.4 594.3 594.2 594.2 Elliston 7.7 7.3 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.0 3.6 Edwardsport 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.6 Hazleton 5.9 5.7 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.0 Indianapolis 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 Muncie 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Noblesville 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 Nora 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 Newberry 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 Petersburg 5.8 5.2 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.3 Ravenswood 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Spencer 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 :Wildcat Creek Lafayette 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued March 14, 2024. $$ CP