####018006055#### FGUS73 KDTX 291706 ESFDTX MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-081200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1205 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins... The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX. IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Pine River Midland 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Tittabawassee River Midland 24.0 25.0 28.0 12 22 9 21 <5 7 Shiawassee River Owosso 7.0 9.0 10.0 27 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kearsley Creek Davison 10.0 11.0 12.0 19 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 Flint River Flint 13.0 15.0 17.0 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cass River Cass City 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Vassar 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Frankenmuth 17.0 20.0 25.0 35 44 8 13 <5 <5 Saginaw River Saginaw 17.0 19.0 24.0 22 27 8 14 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Clinton River Clinton Twp 16.0 17.0 19.0 17 17 7 8 <5 <5 MT Clemens 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 North Branch Clinton River Mt Clemens 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 River Rouge Detroit 15.0 18.0 20.0 26 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 Middle River Rouge Dearborn Hts 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lower Rouge River Dearborn 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mill Creek Dexter 12.0 13.0 14.0 9 14 7 8 <5 5 Huron River Hamburg 7.0 7.5 8.0 35 25 18 14 9 8 Ann Arbor 16.0 17.0 18.0 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 River Raisin Tecumseh 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Aadrian 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Blissfield 683.0 685.0 687.0 13 21 6 7 <5 <5 Dundee 650.0 652.0 653.0 12 18 6 8 <5 7 Monroe 9.0 10.0 11.0 13 21 <5 6 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET ...PAST PRECIPITATION... Thus far this Winter temperatures overall have been much above normal. January was the only month with above normal precipitation with slightly above normal snowfall. The Winter as a whole is slightly below normal in precipitation and well below normal in snow fall. ...RIVER CONDITIONS... Most rivers are flowing from around to below normal. Base flows have come down since the first outlook. ...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH... Late fall and early winter did see below normal precipitation but the high precipitation and snow melt in January has moisten the upper zone of the soil. Lower zones still remain drier then normal. Frost depths are little to none. ...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT... Snow pack is almost non existant across the area. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... The outlook for the next 8-14 days calls for much above average temperatures and near normal precipitation. The outlook for the rest of Spring is for above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. ...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK... With no snow pack most of the winter and little frost depth, the risk for Spring flooding is below normal for this year. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX $$ DRC ####018011642#### FGUS73 KLMK 291706 ESFLMK FGUS73 KLMK 151930 ESFLMK INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175- KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-073- 079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-151-155-163-167- 169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239- 010000- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY 1205 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana. The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal to below normal for this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rainfall and thunderstorms with isolated moderate flooding possible. This outlook is valid through May 2024. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Barren River Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 20 13 9 8 <5 <5 :Blue River Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 30 27 14 13 <5 <5 :Cumberland River Burkesville 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 20 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 36 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 43 39 28 23 16 17 :Green River Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 13 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mammoth Cave 32.0 57.0 62.0 : <5 57 <5 <5 <5 <5 Rochester 37.0 45.0 50.0 : 50 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Woodbury 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 57 65 10 17 <5 7 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 22 23 8 16 <5 11 Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 20 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 12 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lockport Lock 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 22 28 <5 7 <5 <5 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 40 35 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 20 19 8 <5 <5 <5 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cannelton Lock an 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 20 33 <5 9 <5 <5 McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 8 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 14 29 <5 6 <5 <5 Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 42 56 <5 12 <5 <5 :Rolling Fork River Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 32 44 8 19 <5 9 :Rough River Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 42 37 27 22 <5 5 :Salt River Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 9 6 7 <5 <5 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 15 18 5 12 <5 9 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Barren River Bowling Green 12.5 13.0 17.2 21.7 26.1 31.4 34.8 :Blue River Fredericksburg 7.0 8.8 9.8 14.6 21.3 25.1 25.5 :Cumberland River Burkesville 30.3 31.9 34.8 40.9 45.2 47.7 49.0 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 8.3 9.7 14.2 20.5 26.9 30.7 32.5 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 5.5 6.2 7.3 9.0 12.4 15.2 16.5 :Green River Munfordville 8.3 9.0 11.2 15.2 20.7 29.9 43.6 Mammoth Cave 16.9 18.5 21.6 26.1 31.1 37.4 44.9 Rochester 33.1 33.4 35.3 37.0 40.6 43.0 44.6 Woodbury 13.1 16.1 22.1 27.5 33.7 38.1 40.7 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 20.3 21.6 23.1 25.6 29.0 33.5 39.7 Frankfort Lock 11.9 12.7 14.4 18.8 23.6 29.1 33.1 Ford Lock 17.5 18.4 19.6 21.7 25.0 28.1 34.0 High Bridge Lock 16.5 17.4 19.1 21.4 25.0 30.7 35.1 Lockport Lock 15.6 17.2 19.8 25.8 31.3 40.4 43.0 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 14.2 14.8 17.8 22.9 28.1 32.6 35.5 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 9.0 9.6 17.5 21.4 23.8 27.3 29.4 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 430.3 432.3 435.8 440.5 444.8 447.8 449.0 Cannelton Lock an 27.0 28.6 33.5 37.7 41.6 42.8 43.0 McAlpine Lower 32.6 35.3 41.2 46.6 51.5 54.6 55.8 McAlpine Upper 12.8 13.7 16.5 17.8 21.2 23.7 24.8 Tell City 25.9 27.5 32.3 36.5 41.1 42.3 42.5 :Rolling Fork River Boston 17.0 19.6 23.5 29.2 37.4 40.9 43.3 :Rough River Dundee 15.4 17.1 19.5 23.5 28.4 29.0 29.8 :Salt River Shepherdsville 6.4 6.9 8.2 12.7 21.6 27.4 36.6 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 8.7 9.1 10.2 13.0 17.4 21.2 22.0 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Barren River Bowling Green 8.7 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 :Blue River Fredericksburg 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 :Cumberland River Burkesville 29.0 28.6 27.6 26.7 24.5 23.2 22.9 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 :Green River Munfordville 5.7 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.9 Mammoth Cave 13.5 11.6 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.3 9.1 Rochester 30.6 30.4 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 Woodbury 8.6 8.0 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.5 3.4 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 13.2 12.9 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 Frankfort Lock 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 Ford Lock 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8 High Bridge Lock 10.4 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 Lockport Lock 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.4 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 10.4 9.3 7.3 6.0 5.2 4.9 4.8 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 422.4 422.0 421.7 421.3 421.0 420.9 420.6 Cannelton Lock an 15.2 13.9 12.7 11.9 11.4 11.1 10.8 McAlpine Lower 17.0 15.1 13.5 12.2 11.5 11.0 10.6 McAlpine Upper 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Tell City 15.9 14.9 14.0 13.3 12.7 12.4 12.1 :Rolling Fork River Boston 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.4 :Rough River Dundee 7.4 6.3 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 :Salt River Shepherdsville 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Since late November, precipitation has been at or slightly below normal and temperatures have been above normal across the region. As of late February, soil moisture was slightly below normal. Streamflows were near normal over central Kentucky and near or below normal over southern Indiana. Reservoir levels were near or above normal. Over the next week, the weather pattern will feature a few weather systems bringing rain chances. Total precipitation over the next week should range from half an inch to two inches. The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through March 13 calls for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. At this time of year, normal temperatures are in the lower 40s and normal precipitation is around a tenth to a half inch. The outlook for mid to late March calls for above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Normal temperatures for mid March are in the low to mid 40s with normal precipitation between a quarter to one inch. The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates good chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Additional supportive data and explanations are available for precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at www.cpc.noaa.gov. Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch. Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl- wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html. Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued March 14. $$ AMS ####018004251#### FGUS71 KCAR 291707 ESFCAR MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-071715- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1207 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... This is the fifth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two week period of February 29th through March 14th, 2024. The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across Northern Maine and the Central Highlands river basins. Ice jam flooding for Downeast Maine is Below Normal. The potential for open water flooding in all of Eastern & Northern Maine is Below Normal. ...NORTHERN BASINS... SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 4" snow depth East with 3-9" in the North Woods west of Route 11. WATER EQUIVALENT: Very Below Normal. Generally a Trace to 2" with the most in the North Woods. STREAM FLOWS: Normal RIVER ICE: St. John, Allagash, Aroostook Rivers are 80% frozen. Other smaller rivers are 65% frozen. Ice thickness is a few inches to near 15-20" above the Dickey Bridge on the St. John. Aroostook River ice thickness is generally 10-15" but several locations are less. All rivers have many open leads, bank rot & surface ice rot. ...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS... SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 1" in eastern areas, 3-10" remains in the Baxter Region, North Woods and Moosehead Region. 19" reported at Chimney Pond (~2930ft elevation). WATER EQUIVALENT: Trace up to 4". Well Below Normal. STREAM FLOWS: Normal. RIVER ICE: Northern stretches of the Penobscot River is 75% ice covered. 90-95% of the Mattawamkeag is frozen. Central to Southern stretches of the Penobscot are 35-45% covered. Ice is being held up and breaking up above dams. Ice has broken up in some areas thanks to rising natural flows from recent melt. ...DOWNEAST BASINS... SNOW DEPTH: Well Below Normal. 0-0.5 inch. WATER EQUIVALENT: Well Below Normal. Zero-Trace STREAM FLOWS: Normal RIVER ICE: Above dams the rivers are generally 65% covered in mainly sheet or jumbled frazil ice. Many areas of open water with recent warm weather. ...ICE THICKNESS... Ice thickness is extremely variable this year with recent warm spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be in graphical format on our website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook ...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER... We are currently under a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index and negative Pacific North America (PNA) pattern. With a positive NAO pattern...we typically see Arctic air intrusions short lived as the lack of upper-level blocking downstream in the North Atlantic allows cold air to quickly translate east. This is exactly what we expect to happen over the next few days. And...with a negative PNA pattern...southeastern United States upper level ridging typically allows for a storm track near or west of New England which keeps the region mostly on the warm side of systems. Again...this is textbook to what we are seeing today with a large Low passing through southeast Canada with warm southerly flow ahead of it. There are signs that both climate indices will trend back towards neutral as we move through the first 10 days of March but there are no signs right now of any extended cold. In fact...NOAA's official 8 to 14 day outlook for 6 to 12 March 2024 calls for temperatures to very likely be above normal across all of the northeastern United States. Precipitation for the same time period is leaning above normal as well. If this forecast holds true...we may continue to eradicate the already depleted snowpack and rot the ice in place on area rivers and streams. $$ Sinko