####018012020#### FGUS73 KMPX 291802 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-282359- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1205 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for the Upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa (WI) River Basins... ...There is a Below Normal Probability of Spring Flooding Throughout the Area... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical/normal (HS) probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. When the value of CS is greater than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 39.0 40.0 42.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 13 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Springfield 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 20 38 6 18 <5 <5 New Ulm 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 15 31 6 18 <5 9 :Minnesota River Montevideo 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 19 30 <5 19 <5 8 Granite Falls 885.0 889.0 892.0 : 6 21 <5 7 <5 <5 Morton 21.0 23.0 26.0 : 19 33 7 22 <5 7 New Ulm 800.0 804.0 806.0 : 6 18 <5 8 <5 6 Mankato 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5 Henderson 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 18 <5 8 <5 <5 Jordan 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 10 27 <5 16 <5 <5 Savage 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 32 62 <5 13 <5 10 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 5 17 <5 6 <5 <5 :Sauk River St Cloud 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 17 27 <5 12 <5 8 Delano 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 10 20 6 16 <5 11 :Crow River Rockford 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 10 22 5 13 <5 8 :Mississippi River St Cloud 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 9 32 <5 15 <5 <5 Hwy 169 Champlin 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 7 21 5 8 <5 <5 :Rum River Milaca 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 St Francis 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 9 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River Mora 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 13 26 <5 9 <5 <5 :Mississippi River Fridley 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 6 St Paul 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 6 23 5 19 <5 12 Hastings L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 14 40 5 19 <5 13 Red Wing L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 7 25 <5 17 <5 8 Red Wing 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 5 20 <5 14 <5 10 :Cannon River Northfield 897.0 899.0 900.0 : <5 17 <5 5 <5 <5 :St Croix River Stillwater 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 8 24 5 19 <5 12 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 8 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 15 <5 7 <5 <5 Durand 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 12 42 <5 12 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL) FT = FEET In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 32.5 33.2 33.6 34.2 35.3 37.5 38.1 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.8 6.9 8.9 :Cottonwood River Springfield 14.8 15.3 16.1 18.2 21.3 25.7 28.8 New Ulm 5.3 5.8 6.5 7.8 9.6 12.3 14.4 :Minnesota River Montevideo 6.8 7.1 9.9 11.3 13.4 14.9 15.6 Granite Falls 881.5 881.6 882.5 883.0 883.6 884.5 885.1 Morton 12.5 13.0 16.1 18.5 20.4 22.2 23.7 New Ulm 788.2 788.7 791.2 793.1 795.0 797.7 800.5 Mankato 6.4 6.9 8.0 11.1 14.8 17.3 19.5 Henderson 718.6 719.9 721.5 724.6 727.6 729.9 731.6 Jordan 9.8 11.2 13.1 17.3 22.4 24.8 26.4 Savage 688.9 691.3 693.7 699.4 703.2 706.9 708.6 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 2.8 3.1 4.1 4.9 6.0 6.8 7.1 :Sauk River St Cloud 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.6 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 4.5 5.3 6.3 8.0 10.4 12.2 14.5 Delano 8.9 9.8 11.0 12.9 14.9 16.5 18.2 :Crow River Rockford 4.3 4.6 5.3 6.8 8.3 10.1 12.0 :Mississippi River St Cloud 5.8 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.8 8.8 9.6 Hwy 169 Champlin 5.2 5.4 6.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 14.0 :Rum River Milaca 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 St Francis 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.7 :Snake River Mora 3.6 5.0 5.6 7.2 9.2 11.3 12.7 :Mississippi River Fridley 6.0 6.6 7.6 8.8 10.9 12.7 15.9 St Paul 3.2 4.0 4.9 7.3 10.0 12.4 15.6 Hastings L/D#2 6.0 6.7 7.7 10.4 13.2 15.3 17.1 Red Wing L/D#3 670.3 671.2 673.2 675.8 677.9 679.8 681.4 Red Wing 4.4 5.0 6.1 8.0 10.1 12.2 14.1 :Cannon River Northfield 891.5 891.6 892.7 893.5 894.6 896.1 896.8 :St Croix River Stillwater 76.3 77.0 78.8 81.2 83.9 86.2 88.1 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.7 8.1 9.4 12.5 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 761.5 762.9 763.5 764.7 766.5 769.6 770.6 Durand 5.8 7.1 7.8 9.3 10.7 13.6 14.0 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 32.7 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.0 31.9 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 :Cottonwood River Springfield 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 New Ulm 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 :Minnesota River Montevideo 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.9 Granite Falls 880.9 880.7 880.5 880.4 880.1 880.0 879.8 Morton 11.1 10.7 10.0 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.3 New Ulm 787.5 787.2 786.7 786.5 786.0 785.5 785.4 Mankato 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 Henderson 715.8 715.3 714.4 713.9 713.1 712.7 712.5 Jordan 7.3 6.7 5.9 5.5 4.8 4.5 4.4 Savage 688.1 687.9 687.7 687.5 687.4 687.4 687.4 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 :Sauk River St Cloud 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.5 Delano 8.4 8.0 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.8 5.5 :Crow River Rockford 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 :Mississippi River St Cloud 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.1 Hwy 169 Champlin 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 :Rum River Milaca 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 St Francis 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 :Snake River Mora 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 :Mississippi River Fridley 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 St Paul 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Hastings L/D#2 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 Red Wing L/D#3 669.3 669.1 668.6 668.4 668.2 667.8 667.7 Red Wing 3.9 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 :Cannon River Northfield 890.6 890.4 890.2 890.1 890.0 889.9 889.8 :St Croix River Stillwater 75.5 75.5 75.4 75.4 75.3 75.2 75.2 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 759.4 759.3 759.1 758.9 758.8 758.7 758.7 Durand 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 For the winter of 2023-24, we have seen a record low amount of snowfall across the entire upper Midwest. This has resulted in a below normal probability of spring flooding, due to little if any snow water equivalent to drive the snowmelt flood season. Soil moisture remains a little below normal from last year's dry summer, though the rare December rainfall did help a bit. There is ample storage available in the deeper soils, as well as in lakes, ponds, and wetlands as we head into spring. Flooding will still be possible if we receive well above normal rainfall or late season snow, but the starting point is lower than normal. Drought conditions continue across the region, and could become more severe without significant rainfall this spring. These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, along with current conditions of the river levels, soil moisture, and snow cover, combined with 30 to 90 day long range outlooks. This information is available online in graphical format, at: https://www.weather.gov/twincities and at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?who=mpx Beginning on March 27th, National Weather Service water recources information will have a new home, the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS). Starting that day, check us out at https://water.noaa.gov ! These outlooks are issues bi-weekly through mid March $$ ####018016933#### FGUS73 KOAX 291803 ESFOAX NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151- 153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-051200- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Omaha NE 1201 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...There is a below normal risk for flooding this spring... .2024 Spring Flood Outlook The lack of an established snowpack, both in the Plains and in the mountains, along with below normal soil moisture, had lead to a decreased risk for flooding this spring. Any flooding that does occur this spring will be largely dependent on the location and intensity of additional precipitation and thunderstorms. For a thorough explanation of the current conditions, please visit: www.weather.gov/omaha/SpringFloodOutlook In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Niobrara River Verdel 8.0 9.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ponca Creek Verdel 13.5 15.0 17.0 : 10 19 6 13 <5 <5 :Missouri River Decatur 35.0 38.0 41.0 : 5 13 <5 8 <5 6 Blair 26.5 28.5 33.0 : 6 23 5 10 <5 5 Omaha 27.0 32.0 40.0 : 12 41 5 14 <5 <5 Plattsmouth 26.0 32.0 35.0 : 16 49 6 19 <5 8 Nebraska City 18.0 23.0 27.0 : 30 61 9 30 <5 <5 Brownville 34.0 38.5 43.0 : 27 66 11 39 <5 11 Rulo 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 22 63 13 36 <5 5 :Elkhorn River Neligh 11.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Norfolk 12.0 13.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Fork Elkhorn River Pierce 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 17 <5 8 <5 <5 :Elkhorn River Pilger 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 West Point 12.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winslow 17.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 12 <5 6 <5 5 :Logan Creek Uehling 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 6 <5 6 <5 6 :Maple Creek Nickerson 11.5 13.0 17.0 : 5 15 <5 9 <5 7 :Elkhorn River Waterloo 14.0 18.0 21.0 : 6 17 <5 6 <5 <5 :Platte River Duncan 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 14 12 6 9 <5 5 :Shell Creek Columbus 30.0 31.0 32.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 5 :Platte River North Bend 8.0 10.0 11.5 : 12 15 <5 6 <5 <5 Leshara 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 13 19 <5 5 <5 <5 Ashland 20.0 22.0 23.5 : 10 24 <5 6 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Roca 19.0 21.5 23.0 : 7 11 <5 5 <5 <5 Lincoln (N 27th S 20.5 26.5 29.0 : 6 9 <5 5 <5 <5 Greenwood 20.0 24.0 31.0 : 15 31 6 10 <5 <5 :Wahoo Creek Ithaca 19.0 20.5 23.0 : 29 51 24 46 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Ashland 20.0 21.0 26.0 : 14 33 8 22 <5 <5 :Platte River Louisville 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 10 30 <5 6 <5 5 :Big Blue River Surprise 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 20 <5 7 <5 <5 :Lincoln Creek Seward 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 29 58 17 43 <5 6 :Big Blue River Seward 18.0 22.0 27.0 : <5 17 <5 6 <5 <5 :West Fork Big Blue River Dorchester 15.0 22.0 24.4 : 21 54 <5 7 <5 5 :Big Blue River Crete 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 28 56 <5 21 <5 6 :Turkey Creek Wilber 12.5 16.0 21.0 : 28 44 <5 11 <5 <5 De Witt 23.5 25.0 27.0 : 8 25 6 10 5 6 :Big Blue River Beatrice 18.0 26.0 32.0 : 15 40 <5 9 <5 <5 Barneston 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 23 41 <5 10 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Fairbury 18.5 20.0 23.0 : 7 19 6 11 <5 6 :Maple River Mapleton 21.0 22.0 23.0 : <5 7 <5 7 <5 6 :Little Sioux River Turin 25.0 28.0 34.5 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5 :Soldier River Pisgah 28.0 29.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boyer River Logan 21.0 22.0 25.0 : 6 11 6 10 5 6 :Weeping Water Creek Union 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Nishnabotna River Red Oak 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 14 37 6 15 <5 <5 :West Nishnabotna River Hancock 14.0 19.0 23.0 : 9 38 8 14 7 10 Randolph 19.0 22.0 27.0 : 9 50 7 15 <5 5 :Nishnabotna River Hamburg 25.0 27.5 33.0 : 13 50 6 16 <5 <5 :Little Nemaha River Auburn 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 13 13 11 11 <5 <5 :North Fork Big Nemaha River Humboldt 28.0 29.5 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Nemaha River Falls City 27.0 30.0 36.0 : 9 14 7 11 <5 <5 :Nodaway River Clarinda 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 6 11 <5 5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Niobrara River Verdel 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.1 6.2 :Ponca Creek Verdel 6.8 7.1 7.9 9.7 12.1 13.5 15.5 :Missouri River Decatur 20.5 20.8 22.0 22.8 24.6 28.3 35.8 Blair 13.2 13.7 14.4 14.6 17.1 21.6 28.0 Omaha 15.2 16.0 17.1 17.8 21.1 29.7 32.2 Plattsmouth 16.5 16.9 18.0 20.0 24.0 29.6 33.1 Nebraska City 10.7 11.1 12.5 14.6 18.2 22.7 24.5 Brownville 25.9 26.0 27.3 30.6 34.5 38.8 42.7 Rulo 7.9 8.2 9.3 12.8 16.4 21.6 23.9 :Elkhorn River Neligh 1.9 2.3 5.1 6.2 7.6 9.9 10.4 Norfolk 3.0 3.0 4.1 5.1 6.5 8.0 8.7 :North Fork Elkhorn River Pierce 2.6 2.6 3.0 5.3 7.6 9.1 10.2 :Elkhorn River Pilger 6.8 6.9 7.8 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.6 West Point 3.9 4.0 4.4 6.8 8.4 10.1 10.7 Winslow 9.2 9.3 10.3 12.5 14.5 15.5 16.8 :Logan Creek Uehling 2.9 3.6 5.2 9.3 11.1 12.0 12.6 :Maple Creek Nickerson 2.1 2.2 4.3 6.6 7.4 8.4 11.8 :Elkhorn River Waterloo 2.4 3.1 5.5 8.3 10.7 11.7 14.5 :Platte River Duncan 4.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 6.6 8.6 9.6 :Shell Creek Columbus 10.6 10.6 10.6 22.8 27.3 28.6 28.7 :Platte River North Bend 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 8.3 8.8 Leshara 4.6 4.6 5.1 6.3 7.2 8.3 8.5 Ashland 15.1 15.4 16.5 17.9 19.2 20.0 20.5 :Salt Creek Roca 1.6 1.6 2.4 4.7 13.2 17.6 20.6 Lincoln (N 27th S 2.3 2.3 3.1 6.3 12.3 17.3 23.5 Greenwood 2.2 2.2 3.6 9.8 18.5 20.6 25.1 :Wahoo Creek Ithaca 3.6 3.6 5.0 10.0 20.2 22.1 22.5 :Salt Creek Ashland 7.1 7.2 8.5 12.1 18.5 20.5 21.6 :Platte River Louisville 3.8 4.0 5.1 6.6 8.0 8.9 9.6 :Big Blue River Surprise 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.1 6.1 :Lincoln Creek Seward 3.9 5.1 6.9 10.9 15.4 17.3 17.9 :Big Blue River Seward 1.6 2.0 2.7 6.2 11.0 13.3 14.8 :West Fork Big Blue River Dorchester 2.5 4.3 4.9 9.4 13.6 18.6 19.6 :Big Blue River Crete 8.3 9.1 11.5 16.2 21.6 23.6 23.9 :Turkey Creek Wilber 1.5 2.9 5.4 9.4 13.7 14.9 15.3 De Witt 10.2 10.6 12.9 16.1 21.1 23.1 27.0 :Big Blue River Beatrice 3.3 4.1 6.5 10.2 16.1 19.5 24.5 Barneston 4.4 5.1 8.4 13.1 19.6 23.5 25.4 :Little Blue River Fairbury 7.5 8.3 9.6 12.7 15.0 17.4 21.8 :Maple River Mapleton 4.3 4.5 6.2 7.5 8.4 9.2 16.6 :Little Sioux River Turin 7.6 8.2 9.4 11.9 13.4 14.6 22.0 :Soldier River Pisgah 2.8 3.7 5.9 8.3 9.1 10.4 14.5 :Boyer River Logan 3.4 6.4 7.9 10.4 12.1 16.0 24.2 :Weeping Water Creek Union 2.4 4.4 6.2 8.3 17.0 22.8 24.9 :East Nishnabotna River Red Oak 5.2 7.5 9.6 13.4 15.2 19.2 23.2 :West Nishnabotna River Hancock 1.2 4.4 5.8 7.2 8.8 11.9 27.5 Randolph 7.2 10.6 12.1 14.6 16.0 17.9 26.0 :Nishnabotna River Hamburg 7.5 12.3 15.9 19.7 22.9 26.5 29.1 :Little Nemaha River Auburn 3.0 5.5 8.8 11.6 17.9 23.4 24.3 :North Fork Big Nemaha River Humboldt 2.8 3.9 5.7 7.9 12.8 16.9 20.5 :Big Nemaha River Falls City 5.6 6.0 10.1 13.4 18.3 24.6 32.0 :Nodaway River Clarinda 10.5 11.3 12.0 13.5 15.2 21.2 24.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Niobrara River Verdel 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 :Ponca Creek Verdel 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 :Missouri River Decatur 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 Blair 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 Omaha 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 Plattsmouth 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 Nebraska City 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 Brownville 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.3 Rulo 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Elkhorn River Neligh 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Norfolk 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 :North Fork Elkhorn River Pierce 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Elkhorn River Pilger 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0 West Point 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 Winslow 8.7 8.6 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.0 6.9 :Logan Creek Uehling 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 :Maple Creek Nickerson 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 :Elkhorn River Waterloo 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 :Platte River Duncan 3.9 3.7 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Shell Creek Columbus 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 :Platte River North Bend 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 Leshara 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 Ashland 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 :Salt Creek Roca 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Lincoln (N 27th S 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Greenwood 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 :Wahoo Creek Ithaca 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 :Salt Creek Ashland 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 :Platte River Louisville 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 :Big Blue River Surprise 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 :Lincoln Creek Seward 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Big Blue River Seward 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 :West Fork Big Blue River Dorchester 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Big Blue River Crete 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 :Turkey Creek De Witt 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 :Big Blue River Beatrice 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 Barneston 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Little Blue River Fairbury 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 :Maple River Mapleton 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Little Sioux River Turin 7.3 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.2 :Soldier River Pisgah 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Boyer River Logan 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Weeping Water Creek Union 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :East Nishnabotna River Red Oak 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 :West Nishnabotna River Hancock 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Randolph 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 :Nishnabotna River Hamburg 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.8 :Little Nemaha River Auburn 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 :North Fork Big Nemaha River Humboldt 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 :Big Nemaha River Falls City 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 :Nodaway River Clarinda 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/oax for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued $$ ####018023837#### FGUS73 KDVN 291803 ESFDVN IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113- 115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177- 187-195-MOC045-199-151800- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1200 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 .2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook 2... ...Below Normal Flood Risk This Spring... This is the second update of the three planned Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlooks for 2024 for the Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), which covers portions of eastern Iowa, northwest and west central Illinois, and extreme northeast Missouri. Rivers included in this outlook are the Mississippi River and its tributaries from above Dubuque, Iowa to below Gregory Landing, Missouri. The primary tributary systems include the Maquoketa, Wapsipinicon, Cedar, English, Iowa, Skunk, North Skunk, and Des Moines Rivers in Iowa; the Fox River in Missouri; and the Pecatonica, Rock, and Green Rivers in Illinois, as well as the La Moine River in Illinois. This outlook is for the time period from late February through late May. .Flood Outlook Overview... The spring flood risk is below normal for the Mississippi River, and below normal for local tributary rivers across the NWS Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area. Some factors contributing to the current risk levels include: 1) Lack of a snowpack in the local area or in the headwater areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin. 2) Below normal soil moisture levels in the local area, that have continued to dry since the last Outlook, will provide more potential storage for spring rains. 3) Lack of deep, hard frozen soils in the local area or in the headwater areas to the north. 4) Local streams are currently flowing at, to below the normal level. .Key Takeaways… * Even though the overall risk of spring flooding is below average in the NWS Quad Cities HSA, this does not guarantee that high impact flooding will not occur. The severity of any flooding will be determined primarily by changes in the key factors mentioned above. In addition, we will be monitoring the outlooks for spring precipitation to see if that could become a contributing factor this year. * Current snow cover and snow water equivalent are well below normal across much of the local area, which decreased the overall flood threat. In addition the snow water equivalent in the headwaters of the upper Mississippi River basin are well below normal, which will further decrease our likelihood of major impacts on the Mississippi River. Any snowpack in the headwater areas has melted, leaving just a trace that fell overnight on February 27-28. * Widespread below normal soil moisture levels in the local area increases the capacity of the soils to soak in spring precipitation and which will significantly mitigate the near term flood risk as well as decrease the risk for prolonged flooding. Soils in the local area have dried since the previous outlook.. * A significant snow melt occurred locally at the beginning of February and caused flood concerns across parts of western Illinois. Warmer and drier conditions prevailed after this, mitigating heightened stream flows and moistened soils. If warmer and drier conditions persist throughout March, this will likely reduce our spring flood threat further in the final outlook. Many factors are considered when determining the overall flood risk for the upcoming spring season. A combination of these are factored into the final threat categorization. These factors are discussed in detail below, and are categorized as an increased, neutral, or decreased contributor to potential spring flooding. .Seasonal Precipitation: Local Rivers - Neutral to Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Neutral to Decreased Threat Precipitation in eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri has been near to slightly above average so far this winter. However, much of the Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), especially eastern Iowa, remains in some level of drought due to well below normal precipitation observed from the fall months in 2023. This is also reflected well in soil moisture levels (see below). North of the area, precipitation in the upper Mississippi River Basin so far this winter has averaged below normal. Latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal precipitation into the first half of March for much, if not all, of the Mississippi River Basin. With dry soils and ongoing drought, much of the precipitation should be allowed to infiltrate into the ground. With all of this in mind, any contributions from seasonal precipitation to spring flood threat will be minimal. .Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content: Local Rivers - Decreased to Neutral Threat Mississippi River - Decreased to Neutral Threat While snowfall has averaged above normal this winter for much of the HSA, several prolonged warm spells (where high temperatures have climbed into the 50s/60s) quickly melted the snowpack. A fast moving storm system has brought recent snowfall of a trace to 1 inch to portions of the Upper Mississippi Basin, however much of the Mississippi River Basin and the area tributaries are completely free of snow cover per the latest analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). .Soil Conditions: Local Rivers - Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Decreased Threat Despite near to above normal precipitation values so far this winter, soil moisture levels remain below normal due to an extremely dry Fall. Latest analysis from the Climate Prediction Center shows soil moisture ranking profiles around 10-30% for the majority of the HSA, and also includes much of the upper Mississippi River Basin. This favors a decreased to neutral threat from this category for spring flooding, as drier soils will be better suited to soak in heavier rains. .Frost Depth: Local Rivers - Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Decreased Threat Little to no frost depth is being observed across eastern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west central to northwest Illinois due to generally above normal temperatures this winter. A week of Arctic cold did grip the region during the middle of January, but a pre- existing deep snow cover was able to insulate the ground and prevent deeper frost depths from occurring. There are some locations with deeper frozen ground from around 5 to 17 inches in the Upper Mississippi Basin, but overall frost depths are below normal and will not contribute to a higher flood risk. .River Conditions: Local Rivers - Neutral to Decreased Threat Mississippi River - Neutral to Decreased Threat Streamflow analysis from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates the majority of the Upper Mississippi River watershed streamflows are near to above normal. Streamflows in the local area are normal to below normal. The significance of the normal to above average streamflows to flood risk is that a river with higher water levels doesn’t have as much capacity to hold higher amounts of runoff. Streamflows that are below normal levels would have slightly more capacity to hold runoff from heavy rains. .Ice Jam Flooding: Local Rivers - Decreased Threat for Breakup Jams Mississippi River - Decreased Threat for Breakup Jams The warmer weather this winter has largely limited the development of thick river ice. Although a period of colder temperatures in mid- January followed by a long duration of above freezing temperatures did cause some break-up ice jam impacts on the Rock River, all rivers are nearly free of ice cover heading into March. Colder air will likely return yet this winter, so ice development and build-up is still possible. However, without a long period of extreme cold, the risk for development of thick river ice will remain low. This keeps the risk for spring break-up ice jams low. .Weather/Climate Outlooks: Local Rivers - Neutral Threat Mississippi River - Neutral Threat While active weather patterns are typical of the spring months, this could lead to variations of warmer and colder temperatures, where the risk for flooding will be determined by the tracks of individual and multiple storm systems that could bring heavy rain or heavy snow to parts of the region. According to the latest climate outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, probabilities are leaning toward a continuation of above normal temperatures for much of the region into the first half of March, with a signal favoring above normal precipitation during the same timeframe. The three month outlook for March through May is leaning toward a continuation of above normal temperatures for much of the region, with equal chances for either above, near, or below normal precipitation. .Summary: The spring flood risk is below normal for the Mississippi River, and near to below normal for local tributary rivers across the NWS Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area. The flood risk will be assessed 1 more time this spring. Current snow cover and snow water equivalent is significantly lower than average in both the local area and the headwater areas of the Mississippi basin. Large snow events in the local area led to a large snowpack during January, but warm temperatures in late January and early February led to a snowmelt that moistened soils and runoff. Snow runoff and ice break up led to some minor flooding in western Illinois, leaving current conditions unfavorable for snowmelt or ice jam flooding on local tributaries. Some factors contributing to the current risk levels include: 1) Lack of deep and widespread snowpack in the local area and the headwater areas of the Mississippi River basin. 2) A general lack of deep, hard frozen ground across the upper Mississippi River Basin. 3) Near to below average stream flows and below average soil moisture levels. .Numerical Probabilistic River Outlooks... ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook... This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water and the final part for low water. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : 13 48 6 38 <5 12 Dubuque 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 15 53 12 45 <5 15 Bellevue LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : 5 37 <5 32 <5 12 Fulton LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 13 53 <5 35 <5 14 Camanche 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 12 46 <5 35 <5 14 Le Claire LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 13 52 6 37 <5 18 Rock Island LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 19 59 14 51 <5 27 Ill. City LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 15 59 13 48 <5 25 Muscatine 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 22 62 13 48 <5 25 New Boston LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 24 64 15 51 7 31 Keithsburg 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 27 64 14 51 7 28 Gladstone LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 28 65 13 49 <5 25 Burlington 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 27 64 14 50 7 30 Keokuk LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 10 34 7 24 <5 12 Gregory Landing 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 33 65 12 44 <5 <5 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 16 22 11 17 <5 7 Maquoketa 24.0 26.0 28.5 : <5 15 <5 11 <5 6 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 7 10 7 7 <5 <5 Anamosa Shaw Rd 14.5 18.0 21.5 : 15 26 7 13 <5 <5 De Witt 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : 61 72 49 65 30 42 :North Skunk River Sigourney 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 42 55 25 41 6 13 :Skunk River Augusta 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 34 44 21 32 9 15 :Cedar River Vinton 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 6 19 <5 8 <5 5 Palo Blairs Ferry 12.5 15.5 17.0 : 6 28 <5 8 <5 <5 Cedar Rapids 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 7 35 5 18 <5 10 Cedar Bluff 16.0 20.0 26.0 : 7 34 <5 9 <5 <5 Conesville 13.0 15.0 16.5 : 21 55 5 17 <5 8 :Iowa River Marengo 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 37 71 16 47 <5 6 Iowa City 23.5 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lone Tree 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 21 33 6 8 <5 <5 Columbus Jct 23.0 25.0 26.5 : 6 20 <5 7 <5 <5 Wapello 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 20 47 <5 8 <5 <5 Oakville 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 15 40 <5 5 <5 <5 :English River Kalona 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 45 50 21 34 8 15 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 7 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 St Francisville 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 24 40 8 8 <5 <5 :Fox River Wayland 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 24 24 12 13 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Freeport 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 8 23 <5 10 <5 <5 :Rock River Como 12.5 15.5 18.0 : 14 21 <5 10 <5 <5 Joslin 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 42 56 26 30 8 16 Moline 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 41 52 26 28 15 20 :Green River Geneseo 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 20 24 11 13 <5 <5 :La Moine River Colmar 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 57 61 46 42 21 20 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 6.7 7.5 9.3 10.8 13.9 16.5 17.5 Dubuque 9.1 9.8 11.3 12.6 15.9 18.2 19.2 Bellevue LD12 7.4 8.4 10.0 11.5 14.2 16.3 17.2 Fulton LD13 7.6 8.0 9.6 11.3 14.5 16.9 17.7 Camanche 10.2 10.5 11.7 12.8 15.1 17.5 18.2 Le Claire LD14 6.1 6.4 7.3 8.3 10.1 11.6 12.5 Rock Island LD15 7.9 8.7 10.3 11.8 14.2 16.8 18.0 Ill. City LD16 6.2 7.1 9.2 11.6 13.7 16.6 18.0 Muscatine 7.9 8.8 10.9 13.1 15.3 18.6 20.0 New Boston LD17 7.4 8.6 10.8 13.0 14.8 17.7 19.2 Keithsburg 8.4 9.1 10.7 12.3 14.3 16.7 17.3 Gladstone LD18 3.7 4.2 6.3 8.3 10.5 13.1 13.9 Burlington 9.8 10.2 11.7 13.4 15.1 17.6 18.2 Keokuk LD19 5.8 6.5 8.1 10.3 12.9 16.0 18.0 Gregory Landing 7.5 8.1 10.0 13.2 15.8 19.0 20.8 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 5.2 5.8 7.0 8.4 10.5 17.6 19.1 Maquoketa 11.6 12.0 13.0 14.8 16.6 20.9 23.8 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.2 8.2 11.0 14.2 Anamosa Shaw Rd 6.2 7.6 8.3 10.2 12.4 16.4 19.4 De Witt 4S 7.8 9.1 10.1 11.5 12.7 13.4 13.7 :North Skunk River Sigourney 4.6 9.2 12.4 15.1 18.0 20.1 21.5 :Skunk River Augusta 2.6 5.3 8.9 12.3 15.8 18.9 24.2 :Cedar River Vinton 3.2 4.2 5.5 8.1 10.4 12.7 15.8 Palo Blairs Ferry 3.1 3.9 5.3 7.4 9.3 11.3 13.6 Cedar Rapids 3.6 4.1 4.7 6.1 8.0 10.6 14.6 Cedar Bluff 5.5 6.3 7.5 9.8 12.0 14.3 18.2 Conesville 5.8 7.0 8.5 10.4 12.5 13.9 15.1 :Iowa River Marengo 6.8 8.3 10.5 12.8 16.4 17.7 18.2 Iowa City 9.8 10.8 13.2 14.6 18.9 19.7 20.6 Lone Tree 5.1 6.7 10.1 12.3 14.9 17.5 19.0 Columbus Jct 9.5 11.4 13.7 15.7 18.9 21.6 23.3 Wapello 11.6 13.4 16.1 17.6 20.2 22.4 23.7 Oakville 1.6 3.0 5.0 6.8 9.4 11.4 12.8 :English River Kalona 5.4 7.6 11.6 13.5 15.8 17.7 19.5 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 11.3 12.0 15.6 17.2 19.2 21.3 23.9 St Francisville 7.9 9.0 13.5 15.4 17.9 20.9 24.1 :Fox River Wayland 4.3 5.6 8.5 11.9 14.9 18.1 19.9 :Pecatonica River Freeport 6.5 6.9 8.0 10.0 11.9 12.9 13.6 :Rock River Como 5.4 6.0 6.7 9.0 10.7 13.6 14.9 Joslin 7.6 8.4 9.8 11.6 14.2 16.1 18.8 Moline 9.2 9.8 10.3 11.5 13.2 14.7 17.2 :Green River Geneseo 5.2 6.0 8.6 11.6 14.3 16.7 17.8 :La Moine River Colmar 9.8 12.4 15.8 21.7 23.6 25.0 26.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 6.1 5.7 5.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 Dubuque 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 Bellevue LD12 6.4 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.6 Fulton LD13 5.9 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 Camanche 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 Le Claire LD14 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 Rock Island LD15 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.2 Ill. City LD16 5.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.4 Muscatine 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 New Boston LD17 5.7 5.4 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.3 Keithsburg 7.1 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 Gladstone LD18 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 Burlington 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.5 Keokuk LD19 5.0 4.7 3.9 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.2 Gregory Landing 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 Maquoketa 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 Anamosa Shaw Rd 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 De Witt 4S 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.5 :North Skunk River Sigourney 4.9 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.8 :Skunk River Augusta 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 :Cedar River Vinton 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 Palo Blairs Ferry 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 Cedar Rapids 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 Cedar Bluff 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 Conesville 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 :Iowa River Marengo 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 Iowa City 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 Lone Tree 5.3 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 Columbus Jct 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.0 Wapello 12.1 11.4 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.3 :English River Kalona 4.9 4.7 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.3 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.5 St Francisville 6.8 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.1 :Fox River Wayland 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 :Pecatonica River Freeport 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.2 4.0 3.8 :Rock River Como 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 Joslin 7.5 7.0 6.5 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.5 Moline 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 :Green River Geneseo 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 :La Moine River Colmar 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued near the middle of next month. $$