####018020734#### FGUS73 KGID 292120 CCA ESFGID NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019- KSC147-KSC163-051800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...Corrected NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Hastings NE 315 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ..2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In South Central Nebraska this outlook includes the Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their tributaries. In North Central Kansas...the Solomon River and its tributaries are included. ...The potential for spring flooding is generally below average to near average across the majority of the area... ...Short Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 1st Through March 14th... The thick river ice we accumulated in January has melted off or broken up and moved out of the area. We do not expect enough additional ice accumulation through late winter or early spring to cause any additional ice jams this season. Therefore, the ice jam threat has ended for the spring season. There is good confidence that we will continue to see above normal temperatures through the first half of March. The precipitation outlook through early March is above normal, but given our dry soil conditions, it's unlikely that we will see enough precipitation to result in any flooding. ...Long Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 15th Through May 31st... The overall potential for spring flooding is below average across the majority of the area to near average in a few locations along primarily the Loup River Basin. Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February through March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude, stream flow conditions, and the long range forecast of future precipitation patterns. There are several primary factors leading to our below average threat for spring flooding. - The local snowpack is negligible to non-existent. - The mountain snowpack in the Platte River Basin is near to below normal. - Lake McConaughy is at 63 percent capacity and has plenty of storage space available. - Soil moisture is drier than normal in many locations given the ongoing moderate to severe drought. We do have some locations that have come out of the drought, but even in these areas soil moisture is just near normal at best. Consequently, the soil is still capable of absorbing plenty of moisture thus limiting spring flood potential. - Current streamflow on our biggest rivers is averaging near normal to below normal. - The March precipitation outlook is trending towards above normal precipitation, but the longer range outlook of April through June indicates equal chances with no strong indicators one way or the other. A wetter than normal March may help our drought situation, but is unlikely to have much impact on our short term flooding threat due to the other factors listed above. It is important to mention that isolated or localized flooding is still possible even in dry years and when the overall risk of widespread flooding is low. Isolated heavy spring thunderstorms will still be capable of producing localized areas of flooding. For a graphical, more in-depth version of this assessment, please refer to our PDF report that will be linked at: https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/hydro/SpringFloodOutlook_2024.pdf ...Climatological Review (Recent/Winter 2023-24 Precipitation Analysis... In the previous issuance of this statement back on Feb. 15th, this section included a precipitation recap/analysis for the full year of 2023 across our 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area (24 counties in central/south central NE and six counties in north central KS). Please refer back to that previous statement for 2023 details. From this point forward, the focus here will be on more recent precipitation trends over the past three months, specifically what has transpired since the start of "meteorological winter" 2023-24 back on Dec. 1, 2023 (meteorological winter is defined as the three full calendar months of Dec-Jan-Feb). As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported by AHPS precipitation analysis), this meteorological winter featured modestly above normal precipitation across nearly our entire coverage area (despite the last three weeks actually being very dry). More specifically, most of our area has received somewhere between 2.00-4.00" of precipitation since Dec. 1st (including melted snow). This equates to most of our receiving 100-200 percent of normal for the season. Although much of this precipitation fell as snow during January, quite a bit of it actually fell as rain during December and early February. Although not a large/significant difference, the overall- wettest locations have mainly favored eastern/southern portions of our area, with the overall-driest locations mainly concentrated in western/northern counties. In fact, of mainly our far western coverage area (including Furnas County) actually received slightly below normal winter precipitation. Per official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the wettest locations in our area from Dec-Feb included: Plainville KS 4WNW (5.17"), Smith Center KS (5.03") and Hebron (4.42"). In fact, this ended up being the 2nd- wettest winter on record at both the Plainville and Smith Center stations. Meanwhile, a few of the driest official observation sites in our area this winter ended up being: Cambridge (1.51"), Edison (1.97") and Greeley (2.04"). -- Winter-to-date Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM): Thanks to the aforementioned above normal precipitation this winter (and in particular the fact that much of it fell as rain and efficiently soaked into the soil), there was an unusually- significant improvement in drought categories across much of our coverage area from Dec-Feb. At the start of December, 64% of our coverage area was under drought categories ranging from Moderate (D1) to Exceptional (D4), including 36% of the area in worst-off D3+D4 (primarily focused east of Highway 281 in Nebraska and also in parts of north central Kansas). However, the winter months only brought gradual improvement, and as of the very latest USDM issued today (Feb. 29), our entire coverage area is void of all Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought categories. That being said, half of our area remains under Moderate (D1) or Severe (D2) drought, with D2 dominating most local Nebraska counties along/east of Highway 281. In the "best news of all" department, 31% of our coverage area is currently indicated to be void of all drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally Dry D0), including large parts of several counties mainly west of the Highway 281 corridor. Despite this overall-good news, we will need some beneficial precipitation soon given how dry it has been over the most recent three weeks, or drought categories could perhaps start going back the other direction again. The next table below highlights precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter 2023-24, covering Dec. 1 - Feb. 29. Data is shown for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 29 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 4.03 +1.49 159 Phillipsburg 3.07 +0.79 134 Plainville 4WNW 5.17 +2.75 214 Smith Center 5.03 +2.95 242 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 29 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 1.51 -0.21 88 Elwood 8S 2.06 +0.39 123 Grand Island Arpt 3.50 +1.31 160 Hastings Airport 3.28 +1.12 152 Hebron 4.42 +1.75 166 Holdrege 2.80 +0.84 143 Kearney Airport 2.51 +0.73 141 Lexington 6SSE 2.24 +0.70 145 Ord 2.93 +0.95 148 Osceola 3.78 +1.25 149 Superior 3.61 +1.07 142 St. Paul 2.33 +0.22 110 York 3N 3.59 +0.82 130 ...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next Three Months... It's now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends over the next several months: The next week (through March 7): According to our latest official 7-day forecast, at least the vast majority of this week should (unfortunately) remain dry, with only very slight chances for light precipitation during the Sunday night- Tuesday time frame (March 3-5). Although still of low confidence, there might actually be a slightly better chance of rain toward the Thursday-Friday time frame (March 7-8). Temperature-wise, unseasonably-warm highs in the 60s-70s will prevail through Sunday (March 3), before a modest cool-down occurs for Monday onward with highs easing back more so into the 50s. Two weeks out (March 8-14): Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) strongly leans toward a high probability of overall above normal temperatures across our entire coverage area, and also calls for a modest lean toward above normal precipitation. Meteorological Spring (March-May): Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April- May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three- month outlook (issued Feb. 15th) indicates a slight lean toward above normal precipitation (primarily driven by expectations of a somewhat-wet March), along with "Equal chances" for temperatures to be above normal, below normal or near normal. This means that there are no clear signals in current longer-range forecast data to lean toward one of these outcomes over another. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10", with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest amounts near the Highway 81 corridor. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Feb. 15th and valid through the end of May): Going hand in hand with the aforementioned slight lean toward above normal precipitation this spring, this outlook indicates that those parts of our coverage area currently under any drought category (Moderate Drought D1 or worse), will either see some improvement or perhaps have drought removed altogether. (The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ...Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Blue River Deweese 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 20 34 <5 6 <5 5 :North Fork Solomon Glade 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5 :Bow Creek Stockton 9.0 12.0 13.6 : 8 24 <5 7 <5 <5 :Platte River Darr 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 21 27 15 23 12 13 Overton 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 16 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kearney 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 12 15 <5 5 <5 <5 :Wood River Gibbon 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 21 32 18 26 16 21 Alda 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 31 41 29 33 19 25 Wood River Divers 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 9 20 8 10 6 8 :Platte River Grand Island 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 21 29 18 21 13 14 :South Loup River Ravenna 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 39 37 8 11 5 8 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 16.5 18.0 21.0 : 13 27 6 10 <5 <5 :South Loup River Saint Michael 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 13 19 5 8 <5 <5 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 5 9 <5 7 <5 5 :North Loup River Saint Paul 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River Fullerton 9.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Loup River Genoa 10.5 12.0 13.0 : 6 11 <5 6 <5 5 :Beaver Creek Genoa 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 8 21 5 9 <5 7 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Blue River Deweese 3.0 3.6 4.5 6.8 9.3 12.3 14.0 :North Fork Solomon Glade 2.8 2.8 2.8 5.3 7.9 9.8 13.3 :Bow Creek Stockton 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.0 7.2 8.2 11.0 :Platte River Darr 6.2 6.4 7.5 9.6 10.9 13.6 14.8 Overton 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.9 6.5 9.1 10.2 Kearney 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.1 5.4 7.3 7.8 :Wood River Gibbon 4.3 4.3 4.9 8.7 13.4 17.1 18.5 Alda 4.6 4.6 4.8 7.4 11.4 12.8 13.4 Wood River Divers 11.1 11.1 11.7 14.1 16.6 18.7 22.0 :Platte River Grand Island 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.8 8.7 :South Loup River Ravenna 2.9 3.0 3.6 4.8 5.4 6.4 10.3 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 5.6 5.6 8.2 11.8 14.9 17.0 18.4 :South Loup River Saint Michael 2.4 2.5 3.4 6.6 8.0 11.4 13.6 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 1.4 1.4 2.0 3.5 4.5 6.2 8.2 :North Loup River Saint Paul 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.3 6.0 :Cedar River Fullerton 2.1 2.3 3.2 4.9 6.4 7.4 8.2 :Loup River Genoa 4.5 4.5 5.6 6.6 8.0 9.5 10.8 :Beaver Creek Genoa 3.7 3.9 5.8 8.8 12.7 14.4 17.0 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Blue River Deweese 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 :North Fork Solomon Glade 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 :Bow Creek Stockton 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 :Platte River Darr 4.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Overton 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Kearney 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Wood River Gibbon 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Alda 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 Wood River Divers 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 :Platte River Grand Island 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 :South Loup River Ravenna 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 :South Loup River Saint Michael 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 :North Loup River Saint Paul 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 :Cedar River Fullerton 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 :Loup River Genoa 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 :Beaver Creek Genoa 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Future Outlooks... The next/final spring flood outlook will be issued Thursday, March 14th. && Visit our local NWS office website for current weather/hydrological and climate information for South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas at: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Additional climate information for the region can be obtained from the High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu Additional information on climatological outlooks can be found from the Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu https://www.drought.gov https://drought.unl.edu Information on mountain snowpack can be found at: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water- interactive-map NWS AHPS precipitation analysis maps can be found at: https://water.weather.gov/precip National snow analysis page can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov Soil Moisture: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring Reservoir Levels: www.usbr.gov/gp/hydromet/curres_google.htm For training on NWS river forecast graphics: www.youtube.com/watch?v=psIByj8EZY0 $$ Wesely/Pfannkuch ####018015321#### FGUS73 KICT 292121 ESFICT KSC001-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115- 125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-132100- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 320 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA) which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south central and southeast Kansas. ...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and southeast Kansas will have a near normal risk of flooding this Spring... Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or longer periods of excessive precipitation. This outlook is valid from February 29th through March 13th, 2024. The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However, heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area. Recent Conditions: No snowpack exists over the service area at this time. Most of the service area received near normal to around 200 percent of its normal seasonal snowfall. This winter season we saw a two week period of deep frozen soils around 8 to 12 inches across the area. Currently soils are not frozen nor do we expect any future occurrences. Therefore this will not play a factor in spring runoff. The 90-day precipitation was above normal across the service area. The percent of normal precipitation varied from 110 to 200 percent of normal. This relates to departures mainly being at 0.75 to 2.25 inches above normal with slightly higher values of 2.25 to 3 inches across the Flint Hills. However, these last two weeks have been fairly dry. The service area has received less than 25 percent of its normal precipitation. Soil moisture across the HSA is near normal. CPC continues to show soil moisture ranked between the 30th to 70th percentile over the area. The relative soil moisture data did show an area across the Flint Hills have slightly elevated soil moisture. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued the 29th of February 2024, shows no change in drought conditions from 2 weeks ago. Small areas of Severe Drought (D2) are located around Reno and Chautauqua Counties in south central Kansas and southeast Kansas. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are present surrounding the smaller areas of D2 which are slightly more expansive along with Abnormally Dry conditions. A group of south central Kansas counties are drought- free. Drought conditions have greatly improved from this time last year. (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map shows streams across southeast Kansas are experiencing above normal to much above normal flows. Basins across central and south central Kansas show a mix of below normal, normal, and above normal flows. http://waterwatch.usgs.gov) The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is slightly below normal. Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events. Future Conditions: The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of May 2024, indicates an improvement in drought conditions during the period. Large areas within current drought is expected to dissipate with the remaining drought areas to remain but improve by at least 1 category. There are slight chances for precipitation this evening into tonight over southeast Kansas. Looking at sprinkles and light rain showers. Thereafter, dry conditions until a possible system moving in for the end of next week into the next weekend which could bring a better chance of precipitation to the area. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period March-April-May shows equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. Precipitation-wise there is a lean toward above normal precipitation for the service area. The 8-14 day Outlook for the period March 8th through the 14th... (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CPC indicates a 40-50 percent probability of above normal temperatures and the same chances for above normal precipitation for the HSA. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/29/2024 - 05/27/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 9 11 7 8 5 5 Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 12 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 20 15 10 6 <5 <5 Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 29 23 7 5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 :Cow Creek Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 32 20 22 7 <5 <5 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 14 18 10 12 <5 <5 Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 12 14 7 9 <5 <5 Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 11 12 5 6 <5 <5 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 16 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 12 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 9 7 6 <5 <5 <5 :Slate Creek Wellington 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 51 37 27 13 6 <5 :Whitewater River Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 19 14 9 9 <5 <5 Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 9 11 6 6 <5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 9 10 9 8 8 5 :Walnut River El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 28 24 18 17 6 6 Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 16 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 34 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 35 26 8 9 <5 <5 :Verdigris River Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 20 23 6 6 <5 <5 Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 30 35 <5 <5 <5 <5 Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 14 27 <5 6 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 28 18 6 <5 <5 <5 Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 29 25 19 17 <5 <5 Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 25 26 9 7 <5 <5 :Neosho River Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 29 30 <5 9 <5 <5 Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 31 40 14 20 <5 5 Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 30 38 20 28 11 15 Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 44 50 29 40 <5 <5 Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 43 46 29 31 7 8 :Salt Creek Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 8 23 <5 18 <5 <5 :Saline River Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 13 22 <5 9 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 17 35 6 5 <5 <5 Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 12 30 8 12 <5 <5 :Mulberry Creek Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 17 33 11 29 5 6 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 21 34 17 25 6 9 Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Saline River Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/29/2024 - 05/27/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Great Bend 0.7 0.7 1.2 3.1 5.3 8.0 9.2 Hutchinson 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.1 8.8 Haven 1.9 2.4 3.3 4.6 5.9 9.7 12.3 Derby 1.4 1.6 3.3 4.4 7.0 13.1 13.6 Mulvane 6.0 6.4 8.1 9.3 12.4 17.8 18.4 Oxford 8.3 9.0 10.7 11.7 15.7 20.1 21.3 Arkansas City 3.9 4.8 6.9 8.0 11.6 15.7 18.6 :Walnut Creek Albert 3.7 3.8 3.9 8.7 13.9 21.8 25.3 :Cow Creek Lyons 3.9 3.9 3.9 9.4 13.3 16.9 18.2 Hutchinson 1.7 1.7 4.7 7.5 10.3 11.1 11.8 :Little Arkansas River Alta Mills -0.1 0.0 3.9 9.5 15.3 25.3 26.2 Halstead 5.7 5.8 8.6 12.5 17.5 26.7 27.4 Sedgwick 3.1 4.5 6.3 10.3 13.2 23.0 25.2 :Cowskin Creek Wichita At 119th 7.1 7.1 10.9 12.5 15.6 18.9 19.4 :Ninnescah South Fork Murdock 3.6 3.6 4.6 5.2 7.1 8.7 9.9 :Ninnescah River Peck 2.9 3.8 5.3 7.3 12.0 17.8 19.3 Belle Plaine 9.8 10.9 12.8 14.5 17.9 22.9 25.0 :Slate Creek Wellington 4.3 4.3 8.2 19.8 22.3 22.8 23.7 :Whitewater River Towanda 1.8 2.7 7.6 11.9 20.2 24.9 26.6 Augusta 3.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 13.7 20.6 26.4 :West Branch Walnut River El Dorado 6.9 7.1 8.0 10.0 13.8 20.8 33.9 :Walnut River El Dorado 2.4 2.9 3.6 6.6 10.7 12.8 15.1 Augusta 5.9 6.6 7.6 11.5 18.8 23.3 25.6 Winfield 1.6 2.5 6.1 10.8 19.2 25.7 30.7 Arkansas City 3.1 4.6 7.8 11.2 15.9 19.5 20.5 :Chikaskia River Corbin 2.4 2.4 4.8 7.6 11.4 14.3 15.9 :Fall River Fredonia 5.3 7.3 9.5 14.9 18.5 25.8 30.2 :Verdigris River Altoona 7.2 7.5 10.0 14.8 18.6 19.9 21.5 Independence 9.2 10.8 16.2 22.9 32.2 37.9 40.1 Coffeyville 3.1 3.6 5.0 7.6 15.8 19.0 22.8 :Cottonwood River Florence 3.1 4.0 6.0 11.8 23.7 26.5 27.2 Cottonwood Falls 1.2 2.0 3.2 5.6 9.8 13.2 14.1 Plymouth 4.9 5.6 11.9 24.5 32.1 34.0 34.3 :Neosho River Iola 8.0 9.0 9.7 12.9 15.4 18.0 19.4 Chanute 9.5 12.1 15.8 20.5 23.9 30.3 34.8 Erie 15.0 15.6 20.8 25.2 30.1 36.8 41.5 Parsons 10.7 11.2 16.9 20.2 23.7 27.2 28.9 Oswego 8.8 9.3 11.4 15.7 20.9 24.2 26.1 :Salt Creek Barnard 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 8.6 20.3 22.8 :Saline River Lincoln 10.6 10.6 11.1 14.1 24.7 31.6 35.0 :Smoky Hill River Lindsborg 6.4 6.4 7.0 8.0 14.2 23.5 29.5 Mentor 3.8 3.8 4.4 5.9 12.1 20.7 27.3 :Mulberry Creek Salina 3.8 3.8 4.0 6.1 16.0 26.3 27.2 :Smoky Hill River New Cambria 7.2 10.5 13.4 20.9 24.9 31.5 33.7 Russell 3.7 3.7 4.3 6.5 10.3 13.7 16.6 Ellsworth 1.3 1.4 3.5 5.8 9.5 16.4 21.6 :Saline River Russell 4.2 4.2 4.4 6.5 8.7 15.6 17.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of flooding across the HSA this spring. A substantial part of this assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and placement of precipitation and thunderstorms. The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on March 14th. $$ Salazar ####018017042#### FGUS73 KGRR 292123 ESFGRR MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085- 105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-131600- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Grand Rapids MI 1108 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2... This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the rivers in Southwest Lower Michigan. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... The overall flood risk this spring is below average across all of Southwest Michigan (Grand and Kalamazoo River basins) and much below average across West-Central Lower Michigan (Muskegon River basin). This reduced risk is mainly the result of significantly less snowpack than normal for this time of year as well as the fact that there is no ice remaining on any of our rivers. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundation of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations may be needed. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations will be needed. ...Probabilistic Outlook... The flood risk this spring is below normal in all river basins in Southwest and West-Central Lower Michigan. The chance of flooding is less than 50% at all of the forecast locations on our rivers. ...Past Precipitation... The fall and early winter period was much drier than normal. A few weeks during the middle of January brought wetter than normal conditions, but it's been generally drier than normal since then. ...River Conditions... Water levels on the rivers were near-normal for most of the fall and early winter, before climbing to well above-average by late January as heavy rain and complete snowmelt runoff found its way into the river systems. Water levels are now back to near or even below-normal levels for this time of year, and it's entirely possible that we've seen our spring "high water" episode already. ...Soil Moisture and Frost Depths... Soil moisture is near-normal right now, only because of the rain and snowmelt episode Lower Michigan experienced in late January. The record-warm winter conditions so far also mean that there is virtually no frozen ground to speak of - even up north near the headwaters of the Muskegon River. ...Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content... The snow cover - including the amount of water being held in that snow - is near historic lows for mid February. There is essentially zero snowpack anywhere in the Lower Peninsula, other than an inch or two of snow in the lake-effect areas of Northern Lower Michigan. Liquid water content is less than 0.5 inches at all locations. ...River Ice Conditions... The rivers in the Grand and Muskegon River basins briefly formed a stable ice cover during the cold snap in mid January, but by the end of January all of this river ice had melted and broken up. There is no significant river ice to speak of anywhere in the area. ...Weather Outlook. The single biggest factor affecting flood risk is the weather pattern during the sensitive period of melting snow. A slow snow melt with little or no rainfall is ideal to avoid flooding. On the other hand, a rapid warmup accompanied by heavy rain is a much worse scenario for spring flooding - especially if the rivers are covered with ice. At this time, the long range weather forecast calls for a continuation of warmer-than-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation for the first half of March. With no significant ice in any of the rivers, and virtually all of the snowpack already melted, our future flood risks will be linked entirely to heavy rain events. Currently, there are no major indications of heavy rain storms on the horizon over the next week or two, but as we head through March this will remain a concern. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Grand River Jackson 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 20 30 <5 12 <5 6 :Buck Creek Grandville 9.0 10.5 12.0 : 12 12 6 5 <5 <5 :Grand River Eaton Rapids 6.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dimondale 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Red Cedar River Williamston 9.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 East Lansing 7.0 10.0 13.0 : 12 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sycamore Creek Holt 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 34 32 7 7 <5 <5 :Grand River Lansing 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Grand Ledge 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Portland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Looking Glass River Eagle 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 33 42 6 9 <5 <5 :Maple River Maple Rapids 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 47 73 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River Ionia 21.0 23.0 25.0 : 12 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Flat River Smyrna 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River Lowell 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Thornapple River Hastings 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 21 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 Caledonia 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 7 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River Ada 20.0 22.0 25.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rogue River Rockford 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 11 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River Grand Rapids 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 6 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pere Marquette River Scottville 5.5 6.5 7.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :White River Whitehall 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 6 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muskegon River Evart 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 25 <5 9 <5 <5 :Little Muskegon River Morley 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muskegon River Croton 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 11 40 <5 5 <5 <5 Newaygo 11.0 14.0 15.0 : 20 55 <5 10 <5 6 Bridgeton 13.0 16.0 17.0 : 20 55 <5 11 <5 6 :Kalamazoo River Marshall 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 11 <5 8 <5 7 :Battle Creek Battle Creek 4.0 5.0 6.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kalamazoo River Battle Creek 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Comstock 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 New Richmond 17.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St. Joseph River Burlington 6.5 9.0 11.0 : 6 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Portage River Vicksburg 5.5 7.0 8.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chippewa River Mt. Pleasant 8.0 11.0 13.0 : 6 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pine River Alma 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 9 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Grand River Jackson 11.0 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.7 :Buck Creek Grandville 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.6 8.4 9.4 11.6 :Grand River Eaton Rapids 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5 Dimondale 6.3 6.5 7.1 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.1 :Red Cedar River Williamston 4.4 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.4 East Lansing 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.5 7.4 8.1 :Sycamore Creek Holt 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.4 8.3 8.8 9.1 :Grand River Lansing 4.9 5.6 6.5 7.7 8.6 10.8 11.1 Grand Ledge 5.9 6.1 6.6 7.3 7.8 9.1 9.3 Portland 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.8 9.6 10.6 10.9 :Looking Glass River Eagle 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.3 7.4 8.6 9.3 :Maple River Maple Rapids 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.2 10.3 :Grand River Ionia 13.3 14.0 15.6 17.8 19.4 21.4 21.8 :Flat River Smyrna 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.4 7.9 :Grand River Lowell 8.3 8.5 9.3 10.8 12.8 15.1 15.8 :Thornapple River Hastings 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.7 8.4 Caledonia 4.8 5.0 5.8 6.5 8.4 9.6 10.2 :Grand River Ada 11.4 11.9 13.0 15.0 17.1 19.2 19.8 :Rogue River Rockford 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.3 7.1 8.2 8.9 :Grand River Grand Rapids 8.0 8.3 9.8 11.8 14.8 17.6 18.1 :Pere Marquette River Scottville 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.6 4.9 :White River Whitehall 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.2 5.3 5.7 6.1 :Muskegon River Evart 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.8 11.1 11.7 :Little Muskegon River Morley 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.3 :Muskegon River Croton 6.1 6.2 6.7 7.4 8.2 9.1 10.0 Newaygo 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.8 10.8 11.9 13.4 Bridgeton 9.4 9.6 10.3 11.4 12.8 14.3 15.7 :Kalamazoo River Marshall 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.5 :Battle Creek Battle Creek 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.8 :Kalamazoo River Battle Creek 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.2 6.1 6.4 Comstock 4.8 5.0 5.2 6.2 6.8 8.2 8.5 New Richmond 12.9 13.0 13.8 14.4 15.2 16.2 16.6 :St. Joseph River Burlington 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 :Portage River Vicksburg 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 :Chippewa River Mt. Pleasant 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.6 7.3 8.2 :Pine River Alma 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.6 7.9 8.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Grand River Jackson 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.1 9.0 :Buck Creek Grandville 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 :Grand River Eaton Rapids 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 Dimondale 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 :Red Cedar River Williamston 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 East Lansing 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 :Sycamore Creek Holt 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 :Grand River Lansing 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.7 Grand Ledge 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 Portland 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 :Looking Glass River Eagle 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 :Maple River Maple Rapids 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 :Grand River Ionia 11.2 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.1 :Flat River Smyrna 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 :Grand River Lowell 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 :Thornapple River Hastings 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 Caledonia 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 :Grand River Ada 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.2 :Rogue River Rockford 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 :Grand River Grand Rapids 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.8 :Pere Marquette River Scottville 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 :White River Whitehall 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 :Muskegon River Evart 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 :Little Muskegon River Morley 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 :Muskegon River Croton 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 Newaygo 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 Bridgeton 8.6 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3 :Kalamazoo River Marshall 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 :Battle Creek Battle Creek 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 :Kalamazoo River Battle Creek 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Comstock 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 New Richmond 12.2 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.8 :St. Joseph River Burlington 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Portage River Vicksburg 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 :Chippewa River Mt. Pleasant 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 :Pine River Alma 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/grr for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on March 14. $$ AMD