####018016712#### FGUS73 KGLD 010120 ESFGLD COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199- 203-NEC057-087-145-011330- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 620 PM MST Thu Feb 29 2024 /720 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which refers to major rivers located... - In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado - In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska - In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton counties. These river systems include: -The Republican River -The North and South Forks of the Republican River -The North and South Forks of the Solomon River -The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers -Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks This outlook is valid from February 29 through March 14, 2024. Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive precipitation. For calendar year so far, the region has seen 0.1 inches up to 3 inches of precipitation. Most of this has fallen as snow that has all by now. Locations southeast of a line from Oberlin, KS to Wallace, KS have seen the highest amounts of precipitation so far. No known snowpack remains. Current soil temperatures are ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s, according to the latest two and four inch soil temperatures, courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet. Soil moisture conditions at the 20 cm depth are currently above normal while the 0-100 cm average soil moisture is below normal. This is primarily due to recent precipitation and a long dry spell at the end of last year. Above normal temperatures for the upcoming week are expected to continue to dry out the soil. The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows a small amount of severe drought over the far eastern HSA quickly becoming less severe to the west. East of the Colorado border and north of I-70, abnormally dry conditions are found with the remainder of the HSA not classified by the drought monitor. The 3- month outlook (valid for February 15 - May 31), shows likely drought removal across the Goodland Service Area. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov), latest 8-14 day outlook forecasts above normal temperatures and precipitation for the March 8-14 time frame. The latest 3-month outlook for March, April, and May, forecasts equal chances for above and below normal temperatures and leans towards above normal precipitation. Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at Enders Dam, 19.5 percent. For the Medicine Creek Dam, 92.1 percent. For the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 52.3 percent. For the Red Willow Dam, 47.2 percent and for the Trenton Dam, 56.2 percent. All of these are increasing from over the past two weeks. Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water information. Flooding potential over the next two weeks is unlikely due to previous dry conditions, but cannot be ruled out entirely due to above average precipitation being expected. IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :SMOKY HILL R AT OAKLEY KS 22S OKYK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :HACKBERRY CR AT GOVE KS 4W GOVK1 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ARNOLD KS 12N ARNK1 7.0 9.0 11.0 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT SCHOENCHEN KS 2E SCSK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT ELLIS KS ELLK1 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT HAYS KS 2SSE HYSK1 26.0 29.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT RUSSELL KS 8S RSLK1 18.0 20.0 38.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ELLSWORTH KS ELWK1 20.0 24.0 27.0 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT WAKEENEY KS 5N WAAK1 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT RUSSELL KS 5N RUSK1 18.0 20.0 23.0 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LENORA AT LENORA KS LNRK1 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK SOLOMON R AT GLADE KS 1S GDEK1 11.0 16.0 18.0 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5 :BOW CR AT STOCKTON KS 9N SKTK1 9.0 12.0 13.6 8 24 <5 7 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SMOKY HILL R OKYK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 7.9/ 8.4 :HACKBERRY CR GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 9.4/ 10.6 :SMOKY HILL R ARNK1 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.2/ 1.6/ 4.8/ 6.1/ 7.3 SCSK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.2/ 5.2/ 7.9/ 11.2 :BIG CR ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 10.1/ 12.0/ 12.6 HYSK1 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.6/ 8.3/ 13.9/ 17.3 :SMOKY HILL R RSLK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.3/ 6.5/ 10.3/ 13.7/ 16.6 ELWK1 1.3/ 1.4/ 3.5/ 5.8/ 9.5/ 16.4/ 21.6 :SALINE R WAAK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 5.8/ 9.4/ 11.4 RUSK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 6.5/ 8.7/ 15.6/ 17.9 :LENORA LNRK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.4/ 5.2/ 6.3/ 6.9 :N FK SOLOMON R GDEK1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 5.3/ 7.9/ 9.8/ 13.3 :BOW CR SKTK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 7.2/ 8.2/ 11.0 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SMOKY HILL R OKYK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9 :HACKBERRY CR GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :SMOKY HILL R ARNK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 SCSK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :BIG CR ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4 HYSK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :SMOKY HILL R RSLK1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 2.8/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 ELWK1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0 :SALINE R WAAK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 RUSK1 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :LENORA LNRK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :N FK SOLOMON R GDEK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 0.1/ 0.0 :BOW CR SKTK1 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8 :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE BEKN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE HAIN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW BENN1 7.0 9.0 11.0 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE STTN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE PALN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW PASN1 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE CULN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW MCKN1 17.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE MKRN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CAMBRIDGE NE 1E CAMN1 9.0 10.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W ORNN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 15 20 6 15 <5 9 :BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS LDLK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 30 32 6 7 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS CDBK1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CREEK AT BEAVER CITY 4WSW BEVN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW OBNK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 21 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE NCRK1 17.0 20.0 22.0 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW BVSN1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E STMN1 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW WDRK1 19.0 24.0 30.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK REPUBLICAN R BEKN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.7/ 3.2/ 5.2/ 5.3 :ARIKAREE R HAIN1 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.6/ 9.1/ 10.1/ 10.6 :REPUBLICAN R BENN1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.6/ 6.7/ 7.2 STTN1 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.9/ 8.4/ 9.9/ 10.7 :FRENCHMAN CR PALN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 7.1/ 7.5 :STINKING WATER CR PASN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 5.5/ 6.4 :FRENCHMAN CR CULN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 6.2/ 7.2 :DRIFTWOOD CR MCKN1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 7.0/ 9.9/ 14.4/ 15.0 :REPUBLICAN R MKRN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 5.2/ 6.4/ 7.9/ 8.0 CAMN1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 2.8/ 4.1/ 6.6/ 7.9 ORNN1 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.9/ 3.3/ 6.6/ 9.7/ 11.7 :BEAVER CR LDLK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 5.1/ 9.5/ 10.3/ 11.0 CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.9/ 8.5/ 10.0/ 11.3 :BEAVER CREEK BEVN1 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.7/ 7.7/ 9.5/ 9.9 :SAPPA CR OBNK1 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.4/ 5.8/ 9.8/ 12.9/ 13.8 NCRK1 4.0/ 4.3/ 5.1/ 6.4/ 13.3/ 16.4/ 17.1 BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.3/ 9.1/ 11.4/ 12.6 STMN1 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.7/ 11.7/ 13.9/ 14.4 :PRAIRIE DOG CR WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 4.3/ 7.0/ 10.3/ 13.9/ 17.9 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK REPUBLICAN R BEKN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :ARIKAREE R HAIN1 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9 :REPUBLICAN R BENN1 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0 STTN1 5.7/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.9 :FRENCHMAN CR PALN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4 :STINKING WATER CR PASN1 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :FRENCHMAN CR CULN1 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :DRIFTWOOD CR MCKN1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :REPUBLICAN R MKRN1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 CAMN1 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8 ORNN1 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :BEAVER CR LDLK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :BEAVER CREEK BEVN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :SAPPA CR OBNK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 NCRK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 STMN1 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.1 :PRAIRIE DOG CR WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on 14 March 2024. $$