####018005854#### FGUS71 KPBZ 071402 ESFPBZ WVC069-141415- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 902 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 ...Flood Potential is near normal the next two weeks... ...Flood Potential is near normal to slightly below normal through spring... The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS... Over the last two weeks, observed rainfall was as low as the 0.50 inch range in the western Ohio Valley (eastern Illinois, northern Indiana, western Kentucky) and as high as around three inches in portions of the central and eastern Ohio Valley. Most areas fell in the 1.50 to 2.50 inch range. This falls in the 50-175% range of normal. There were no large areas of extreme dry or extreme wet. For more information please visit: https://water.weather.gov/precip SOIL MOISTURE... Soil moisture is currently near normal across a large portion of the basin. Most soil moisture is in the 20-70th percentile range. Normal is considered in the 30-70th percentile range. Areas of eastern Illinois are on the drier side of normal while eastern areas such as western Pennsylvania and eastern Kentucky are on the wetter side of normal. State rankings: Ohio - Mostly near normal Western Pennsylvania - Slightly above normal For more information please visit: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml USGS STREAMFLOWS... The past seven-day streamflows have been slightly below normal in Indiana and eastern Illinois. They have been near normal across the rest of the Ohio Valley with some slightly above normal averages in West Virginia. State rankings: Ohio - Near normal Western Pennsylvania - Near normal For more information please visit: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt RESERVOIR CONDITIONS... Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pools across the Ohio Valley. OHIO RIVER FLOWS... Ohio River flows are currently slightly below normal. Observed values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100% are below normal. Pittsburgh - 80% Huntington - 80% Cincinnati - 90% Louisville - 100% Evansville - 100% Smithland - 90% SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK... There is no snowpack in the basin. For more information please visit: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa ICE COVER... There is no ice in the basin. 2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... During the upcoming weekend (March 9-10) a frontal system will bring rainfall across the entire Ohio Valley. Rains will result in some significant rises, mostly in bank, but some minor flooding is possible in northwest Ohio, in Indiana and in southeastern Illinois. These are normal conditions for March. However, behind this system the region is likely to see 5-6 days of nearly dry weather, with normal rainfall continuing through the end of the month. Additionally, there are above normal temperatures, above normal soil temperatures and decreased runoff because of the greening up of grasses and leaf out that is running 10-20 days ahead of normal. Therefore, the flood risk is considered close to normal for the middle of March with some minor flooding in typical flood prone areas. OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... River flows over the next 2 weeks will be near normal on the upper and middle Ohio River but slightly below normal on the lower Ohio River. Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and values below 100% being below normal. Pittsburgh - 110% Huntington - 100% Cincinnati - 100% Louisville - 100% Evansville - 80% Smithland - 80% For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs Official forecasts can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc 90-DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK... The outlook continues to favor normal to slightly below normal flood risk through spring which means minor to isolated moderate floods are possible. After a period of wettness in the first half of March, most forecast data suggests a return to normal or slightly below normal rainfall from late March through April. It appears the heaviest rains in the next 2-3 months will fall over parts of Tennessee, Kentucky into Virginia and West Virginia. STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK... Ohio - Minor flooding possible Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... Flood risk is defined as follows: Below normal - flooding will be limited Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions. The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation. $$