####018006136#### FGUS75 KPUB 131739 ESFPUB COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071- 079-089-099-101-105-109-119-281800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Pueblo CO 1136 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/12/2024 - 06/10/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River Leadville 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Salida 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wellsville 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Parkdale 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Canon City 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Portland 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Pueblo 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Avondale 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 50 22 7 <5 <5 <5 Nepesta 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 25 <5 14 <5 5 <5 Fowler 13.5 14.0 15.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Rocky Ford 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Junta 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 69 33 22 6 <5 <5 Lamar 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fountain Creek Colorado Springs 11.5 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Fountain 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Pinon 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Pueblo 10.0 12.0 13.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St. Charles River Vineland 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 8 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 :Purgatoire River Madrid 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Trinidad Lake 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Trinidad 11.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Las Animas 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 20 10 7 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/12/2024 - 06/10/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Arkansas River Leadville 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.8 8.0 8.3 Salida 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 Wellsville 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.7 Parkdale 4.1 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.4 Canon City 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.6 9.1 Portland 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.3 7.9 Pueblo 4.7 4.9 5.5 6.1 7.6 8.0 8.1 Avondale 4.6 4.8 5.7 7.0 8.1 9.7 10.3 Nepesta 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.9 18.6 Fowler 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 7.0 7.8 8.2 Rocky Ford 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.4 5.1 6.2 6.9 La Junta 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.8 12.8 14.0 14.5 Lamar 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.5 8.1 9.0 :Fountain Creek Colorado Springs 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.6 8.6 9.3 Fountain 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.2 10.2 11.8 Pinon 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.8 7.5 8.8 Pueblo 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.3 4.6 5.7 :St. Charles River Vineland 3.4 3.6 4.2 5.3 7.3 10.4 15.2 :Purgatoire River Madrid 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 Trinidad Lake 4.3 4.3 5.5 6.6 7.4 7.7 9.0 Trinidad 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 6.2 Las Animas 3.0 3.1 3.9 5.6 8.2 10.9 13.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/pub for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued Thu Mar 28. $$