####018012525#### FGUS73 KDDC 140918 ESFDDC KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101- 119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-281800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 416 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...   - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below     Larned, Kansas   - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties   - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties   - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek   - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek   - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River This outlook is valid from March 14 through March 28, 2024. Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City Service area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation...or longer periods of excessive precipitation. Over the past year precipitation amounts in the HSA were generally at or above average. The lowest amounts of precipitation over the past year occurred along and north of a Pratt to Dighton line where 75-100% of average precipitation occurred and in Trego county around 50-75% of average precipitation was received. South of this line from Scott City to Dodge City to Pratt we have reports of 100-150% of average moisture was received over the past year. The last three months have been wet for all of southwest Kansas as pretty much the entire area has ranged from 125-200% of average moisture. Keep in mind our driest time of the year is in the winter months so while it has been a wetter winter than average the amounts over 3 months are in the 3-4 inch range. With the recent increase in moisture this has also led to higher soil moistures across the southern HSA. Moisture percentiles of 70-99% are across areas roughly along and south of highway 50 and 30-70% for areas north of highway 50. Our northern areas can still take some rain to soak up while our southern areas will have higher available moisture in the ground if and when more rain and snow comes. The latest drought monitor index from (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) through March 5th has almost all of southwest Kansas out of drought conditions. The loan exceptions are moderate drought is still occurring mainly in Trego county and northeast Stafford county. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released on February 15,2024 and valid through May 31st, 2024 calls for the areas in southwest Kansas that remain in drought to likely have drought removal over the next few months. The Climate Prediction Center Outlook during the 3-month period for March through May calls for equal chances of near normal temperatures and equal chances of near normal precipitation for areas west of a Medicine Lodge to Dighton line and 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation east of this line. The 8-14 Day CPC Outlook valid for March 21st-27th, 2024 calls for equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures (around 33% each) all across southwest Kansas which is roughly around 60 for highs and 33 for lows and 33-40% chance of receiving above average precipitation which is roughly 0.25-0.50 inches of rain in this time period. Eastern Pacific current oscillations are forecast to be transition from El Nino to ENSO neutral by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Nina developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). The source is from the climate prediction center’s El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion from February 8th 2024. Latest sea surface temperatures as of March 6th off the western coast of South America have shown a warming trend which would indicate the end of an El Nino and the start of a La Nina. Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River Basin is running near average with the snow-water equivalent at 94%. At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, the current water surface elevation is around 3812.00 feet, which equates to about 55,197 acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 15.8 percent full. At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir pool elevation stands at 2124.6 feet which equates to 72664 acre-feet of water.  The reservoir is approximately 42.1 percent full. At Horse Thief Reservoir in southwest Kansas, the current water surface elevation is 2414.96 feet which equates to a current storage capacity of 3639 acre-feet. Reservoir storage is at 58.6 percent capacity. There is sufficient capacity for snowmelt runoff and spring rains at the reservoirs in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map indicates that streamflow of the rivers in southwest Kansas are near to below normal on the Arkansas river and near to below normal for many of the streams across central and south-central Kansas. Streamflow is normal for the Saline river in Trego county and the streams in Ellis and Rush counties. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Schoenchen 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Big Creek Ellis 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hays 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Arkansas River Coolidge 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Syracuse 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Garden City 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dodge City 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Nekoma 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buckner Creek Burdett 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee Creek Burdett 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee River Sanford 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rattlesnake Creek Macksville 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Zenith 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 6 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :South Fork Ninnescah River Pratt 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked Creek Englewood 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 12 5 7 <5 <5 <5 :Cimarron River Forgan 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Medicine Lodge River Kiowa 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 6.1 7.2 Schoenchen 2E 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.3 5.8 8.8 12.8 :Big Creek Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 10.2 11.8 12.6 Hays 2SSE 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.7 8.3 16.1 17.7 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.6 9.3 11.3 :Arkansas River Coolidge 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.3 7.3 8.6 Syracuse 1S 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.8 8.1 9.5 Garden City 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.5 Dodge City 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.6 8.4 8.9 :Walnut Creek Nekoma 7.3 7.5 7.7 15.0 22.4 26.6 30.5 :Buckner Creek Burdett 7WSW 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.7 9.0 11.7 13.4 :Pawnee Creek Burdett 6W 2.4 2.4 2.4 7.0 12.9 15.9 16.7 :Pawnee River Sanford 5.6 5.6 5.9 7.5 11.2 13.2 14.6 :Rattlesnake Creek Macksville 8SE 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.2 6.6 7.3 Zenith 10NNW 11.8 11.8 12.3 13.7 14.7 16.0 17.4 :South Fork Ninnescah River Pratt 2.5 2.6 3.2 4.7 6.1 6.9 8.8 :Crooked Creek Englewood 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.8 :Cimarron River Forgan 8NNE 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.3 4.5 5.0 :Medicine Lodge River Kiowa 2NE 0.2 0.2 1.6 3.8 5.6 8.0 10.6 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Schoenchen 2E 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 Hays 2SSE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Based upon the above information, there is near normal risk of flooding over central and western Kansas this spring. Most flooding in southwest Kansas is directly related to specific precipitation events. This will be the last Spring Flood Outlook issued for this year. Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water information. $$