####018009399#### FGUS73 KDLH 141603 ESFDLH MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031- 051-099-113-129-281700- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Duluth MN 1100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This outlook covers NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin for river forecast points on the headwaters of the Mississippi, Chippewa, St. Croix, and Rainy Rivers. ...Changes Since Previous Issuance February 29th... Precipitation over the past two weeks across the region was generally 0.5 to 1 inches below normal. Temperatures were well above normal. Dry conditions have pushed chances for spring flooding lower than the previous issuance. ...Current Conditions... Precipitation since October has been near normal across the region except north central Wisconsin and Lake and Cook counties where it has been below normal. Much of the precipitation fell as rain and runoff was observed over the last week of December. No frost was present after the late December rains thus in addition to the rainfall runoff some rainfall percolated into the soil which soon re- froze. A widening area of moderate drought conditions continue expanding across the entire area. Severe drought exists in northern Wisconsin. If dry conditions continue further drought development is likely. The lack of snowpack is the main driver of the spring river forecasts. Record low snowpack is occurring across NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. Without an insulating snowpack the frost has reestablished to a depth of 22 inches. Frost depth is important because any heavy rainfall on frozen ground could generate efficient and rapid runoff. Rain on frozen ground is not well accounted for in the model solutions below. Rivers in the area are mainly ice free due to the recent warm weather and are displaying normal to below normal flow. However without well above normal precipitation river levels will remain steady or decrease then fall below normal as we will not see rise from snowmelt. ...Climate Outlook... Looking ahead at precipitation chances we see a signal for above normal precipitation for the period March 21 to 27. Temperature outlooks for the next two weeks indicate below normal temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center will publish the April outlook on March 25th. ...Below Normal Chances of Spring Flooding Across the Area... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Prairie River Taconite 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mississippi River Aitkin 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 11 54 <5 33 <5 7 Fort Ripley 10.5 12.5 26.0 : 11 43 <5 20 <5 <5 :St. Croix River Danbury 7.0 8.5 10.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River Pine City 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5 :St. Louis River Scanlon 10.5 11.0 13.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Nemadji River Nemadji R nr Supe 24.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Tyler Forks Mellen 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 12 35 5 25 <5 5 :Bad River Odanah 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Odanah 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Kawishiwi River Ely 6.5 7.5 8.5 : <5 25 <5 12 <5 <5 :Little Fork River Little Fork 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Vermilion River Crane Lake 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Prairie River Taconite 3.3 3.5 4.2 5.1 6.0 7.5 8.2 :Mississippi River Aitkin 5.2 5.7 7.7 9.3 11.7 13.5 14.5 Fort Ripley 4.6 5.1 6.5 7.5 9.2 10.7 12.3 :St. Croix River Danbury 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 :Snake River Pine City 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.5 6.5 7.8 8.1 :St. Louis River Scanlon 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.7 8.9 :Nemadji River Nemadji R nr Supe 8.0 9.8 11.6 14.4 18.5 21.9 22.7 :Tyler Forks Mellen 4.8 5.1 5.7 6.7 7.5 9.3 10.2 :Bad River Odanah 4.1 4.7 5.4 6.6 7.9 10.9 12.3 Odanah 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.7 6.4 7.0 :South Kawishiwi River Ely 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.8 :Little Fork River Little Fork 3.9 4.1 5.3 6.2 7.3 9.5 12.0 :Vermilion River Crane Lake 7.3 7.3 8.3 9.7 10.7 11.9 12.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Prairie River Taconite 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.3 :Mississippi River Aitkin 5.1 5.0 4.5 3.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 Fort Ripley 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.4 :St. Croix River Danbury 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 :Snake River Pine City 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 :St. Louis River Scanlon 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 :Nemadji River Nemadji R nr Supe 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 :Tyler Forks Mellen 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 :Bad River Odanah 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 Odanah 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 :South Kawishiwi River Ely 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 :Little Fork River Little Fork 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.7 :Vermilion River Crane Lake 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.4 5.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/dlh for more weather and water information. For additional information on stream flow conditions for USGS locations please reference https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov For additional information on stream flow conditions at MNDNR sites www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters/csg/index.html or www.climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp For more information on climate outlooks reference www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov The is the final Spring Flood Outlook of 2024. $$ ####018005505#### FGUS71 KCAR 141603 ESFCAR MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-211615- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1203 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... This is the seventh Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the one week period of March 14th through March 21st, 2024. The potential for Ice Jams is Above Normal across the St. John and the Allagash Basin. Ice Jam potential is Above Normal on the Aroostook River below the Caribou Dam. Ice jam potential is over for the 2024 season on all other river basins. The potential for open water flooding is Normal across Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and into Southern Aroostook County. The potential for open water flooding is Below Normal across the St. John River basin in Northern Maine. ...NORTHERN BASINS... OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Below Normal. SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. 12-18" of Snow in the Allagash to NW Aroostook. 6-12" from the Moosehead Region into the Upper Allagash Basin then St. John Valley. 1-6" from the Baxter Region into Eastern Aroostook County. 18-25" above 2,000ft in Baxter State Park. WATER EQUIVALENT: 0.5-2.5" with higher amounts. Below Normal. STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Above Normal for Mid March RIVER ICE: St. John has an Ice Jam at the Confluence with the Allagash River that is approx 2 miles long. It is mostly free and clear above Dickey Bridge. Mixed jumbled, open leads and cracks from Allagash/St. Francis townline downstream to St. John Plantation. Mainly open river from Fort Kent to Madawaska with some jumbled ice near Frenchville. Mostly clear to near Lille. Mainly frozen solid with some rot downstream of Lille to Van Buren and Hamlin. Allagash is opening up to above the town where a jam is near the USGS gage above the town. The Aroostook has approx 7 miles worth of ice (some sheet but mostly jumbled) above the Caribou Dam. The river is open from Caribou Dam to near the Fort Fairfield Route 1A Bridge. It is jammed from the bridge and extends Downstream to Tinker Dam in New Brunswick. Aroostook River above Presque Isle to the Headwaters is mainly open. The Meduxnekeag River has some ice remaining jumbled near the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians tribal lands due to previous ice jam upstream that shifted. ...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS... OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Normal. SNOW DEPTH: Zero to perhaps a trace in hardwoods. Well below normal. WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero. Well below normal. STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal. RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains with most stretches 100% ice free. ...DOWNEAST BASINS... OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Normal. SNOW DEPTH: Zero. Below Normal. WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero. Below Normal. STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal west, near Normal east. RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains with most stretches 100% ice free. ...LAKE ICE THICKNESS... Ice thickness is extremely variable with recent warm spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be in graphical format on our website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook ...FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER... The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (AO) teleconnections were both slightly negative while the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection was slightly positive. A positive PNA and negative NAO/AO combination promotes more ridging in the western CONUS with troughing across the eastern CONUS. All three indices are forecast to approach near neutral during the next two weeks with the Artic Oscillation (AO) remaining slightly negative. Thus, a somewhat less amplified and zonal pattern is anticipated with some transient troughing extending into the northeast. A split jet stream pattern will make individual low tracks and QPF impacts more challenging depending on timing and potential phasing. While the subtropical jet stream is still active there will be an opportunity for southern stream low system(s) to produce more significant precipitation if deeper moisture can approach...primarily across southern and eastern areas. A split jet stream pattern with less blocking would typically yield more seasonable temperatures on average with cold air intrusions brief. Due to the lack of areal snow cover and pre-greenup conditions, temperatures may be milder than typically expected. It currently appears the northern branch of the jet stream will remain more dominant across the Northeast along with the negative AO, allowing for a drier cooler pattern next week. However, there is the chance a deeper southern stream system may approach during week two. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks March 19-26 generally agree with average temperatures leaning normal short term to above normal long term and precipitation near normal short term leaning wetter than normal long term. $$ Sinko