####018018542#### FGUS73 KEAX 141840 ESFEAX MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-150000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 139 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Final 2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River, Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. ...Below normal flood potential through mid-June along the Missouri River from the Iowa border through Boonville... ...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will likely experience minor to moderate flooding... Outlook: Through mid-June, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 20 to 35 percent lower than normal. Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from the Iowa border downstream to Atchison, Kansas range from 30 to 40 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding through mid-June. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent. Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger, Crooked, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each spring. Recent Conditions: During the past 30 days, precipitation amounts were in excess of 150 percent of normal along and roughly 40 miles north of a line from Leavenworth, Kansas to Carrollton and Glasgow, Missouri. Otherwise, the remainder of the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received mainly below normal precipitation. Over the previous 90-day period, the majority of the local region observed above normal precipitation with many areas reporting amounts 125 to 200 percent of normal. 30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central Missouri. These values were 6 to 10 degrees above normal. For the past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values ranging 3 to 7 degrees warmer than average. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates 98 percent of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, around 50 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 65 percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate drought, and 7 percent severe drought. No snow cover is present across the local area or Plains region. In addition, below normal snowpack continues across mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin. 7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below normal streamflow conditions continued across much of far northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent rainfall brought above normal conditions to the Marias Des Cygnes basin, and normal streamflow to the Blue and Osage basins. Future Conditions: 7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a quarter inch. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA. This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2024. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Delaware River Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 36 40 24 36 <5 <5 :Stranger Creek Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 74 90 68 77 9 9 Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 47 67 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 22 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Missouri River St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 38 73 20 52 7 14 Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 31 66 12 26 7 18 Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 24 60 11 23 <5 9 Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 15 43 9 22 <5 8 Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 9 20 6 12 <5 <5 Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 52 80 20 33 5 10 Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 59 80 15 25 6 12 Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 60 81 15 29 10 15 Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 59 79 48 75 15 34 Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 58 77 16 22 <5 9 :Tarkio River Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 55 81 48 79 42 51 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 8 15 <5 5 <5 <5 :102 River Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 23 43 12 18 <5 <5 Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 25 52 25 52 7 8 :Platte River Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 88 37 62 5 7 :Little Platte River Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 48 72 38 62 10 27 Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 61 86 32 48 8 24 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 30 33 10 11 <5 <5 Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 17 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 22 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 24 26 <5 5 <5 <5 Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 53 41 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked River Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 63 78 57 72 <5 <5 :Wakenda Creek Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 51 67 49 61 13 17 :Blackwater River Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 67 93 61 84 22 29 Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 84 94 42 57 10 12 :Lamine River Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 56 62 46 50 11 11 :Moniteau Creek Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 72 81 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Petite Saline Creek Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 54 64 48 51 <5 <5 :Thompson River Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 35 45 19 20 7 8 :Grand River Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 44 69 27 58 22 43 Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 48 70 11 21 7 8 Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 65 77 58 70 32 38 Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 77 84 74 82 9 9 Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 62 79 21 26 9 9 :Chariton River Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 35 39 26 27 16 20 Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 58 74 32 34 17 17 :South Grand River Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 73 71 44 49 <5 <5 :Big Creek Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 96 >98 89 89 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 47 47 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 59 66 37 43 <5 <5 Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 49 50 33 43 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 4.7 6.2 9.8 20.1 27.9 29.0 30.8 :Stranger Creek Easton 7.3 14.0 16.9 20.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 Tonganoxie 7.6 12.1 20.0 22.6 25.3 25.7 27.9 :Kansas River De Soto 6.3 7.8 10.5 13.3 20.1 23.4 26.5 Turner Bridge KCK 6.3 11.6 13.4 19.6 30.0 35.2 40.5 23rd Street KCK 12.3 15.9 17.1 21.8 31.0 36.0 41.5 :Missouri River St Joseph 7.0 7.5 11.1 15.5 19.7 24.5 28.3 Atchison 9.4 10.0 14.8 19.4 23.2 28.2 31.1 Leavenworth 4.1 4.7 9.1 14.7 19.8 24.9 29.2 Parkville 9.4 10.9 13.8 18.0 22.3 27.6 32.3 Kansas City 12.0 13.8 16.4 20.2 27.4 31.7 37.9 Napoleon 8.9 11.3 13.3 17.4 22.3 27.3 30.4 Waverly 12.5 15.1 17.0 21.3 24.8 30.4 31.4 Miami 9.3 12.8 15.7 21.0 24.3 29.0 30.0 Glasgow 13.3 18.7 21.8 26.8 30.1 36.2 39.9 Boonville 10.4 14.4 17.6 23.3 26.6 32.9 33.7 :Tarkio River Fairfax 8.3 10.3 12.2 17.6 27.0 28.6 29.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.4 16.3 20.4 26.6 :102 River Maryville 9.4 10.8 12.3 14.0 17.2 24.0 25.2 Rosendale 7.5 10.7 13.2 15.4 18.1 22.4 23.1 :Platte River Agency 11.0 16.9 19.1 22.8 25.9 27.1 29.9 :Little Platte River Smithville 13.5 14.0 14.5 16.9 20.0 21.5 26.2 :Platte River Sharps Station 13.7 19.7 22.6 25.2 31.3 33.0 35.0 Platte City 10.9 16.7 18.9 20.5 25.4 28.0 31.3 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 28.1 29.1 33.1 36.6 39.0 40.1 Bannister Road Ka 7.8 9.4 15.8 22.3 30.9 35.5 37.6 71 Highway Kansas 6.7 8.8 15.6 19.8 26.3 31.0 33.0 63rd Street Kansa 10.3 11.9 15.9 19.5 25.8 30.8 32.4 Colorado Avenue K 9.9 11.3 15.3 18.4 23.4 28.2 29.8 Stadium Drive Kan 8.9 10.6 15.5 21.4 27.4 30.9 32.6 17th Street Kansa 12.5 14.8 18.9 23.9 29.3 32.5 33.8 12th Street Kansa 8.5 10.6 14.0 18.0 24.8 27.7 29.0 :Little Blue River Lake City 6.0 7.8 12.9 18.1 20.9 23.9 24.2 :Crooked River Richmond 6.4 11.4 16.5 21.8 24.8 26.6 27.0 :Thompson River Trenton 12.0 15.0 18.2 24.6 29.3 32.3 35.5 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.2 4.6 7.2 20.9 30.8 34.3 42.6 Gallatin 5.8 8.1 14.2 25.7 30.6 33.9 41.0 Chillicothe 7.3 11.8 18.0 29.6 38.1 40.4 41.3 Sumner 11.3 17.4 27.6 33.5 37.1 39.3 42.2 Brunswick 6.2 13.6 17.4 20.5 24.8 30.9 38.2 :Chariton River Novinger 1.8 3.8 11.4 15.7 23.3 27.2 29.4 Prairie Hill 3.2 9.3 13.9 16.1 19.4 22.1 23.7 :South Grand River Urich 11.7 17.8 24.1 25.8 28.3 28.8 31.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 21.4 23.0 23.4 24.3 26.1 27.0 27.3 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 16.0 18.7 21.9 26.4 34.6 36.7 38.3 La Cygne 10.5 13.7 20.6 27.9 32.8 33.5 34.0 Trading Post 11.7 15.1 21.6 26.8 34.9 37.7 38.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Stranger Creek Easton 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Tonganoxie 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Kansas River De Soto 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Missouri River St Joseph 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 Atchison 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 Parkville 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Kansas City 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Napoleon 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Waverly 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Miami 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Glasgow 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Boonville 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 :102 River Maryville 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Platte River Agency 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 :Little Platte River Smithville 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 :Platte River Sharps Station 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 Stadium Drive Kan 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 17th Street Kansa 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 12th Street Kansa 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Little Blue River Lake City 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 :Crooked River Richmond 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.6 :Thompson River Trenton 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 :Grand River Pattonsburg 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Gallatin 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Chillicothe 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 Sumner 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.2 :Chariton River Prairie Hill 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 :South Grand River Urich 3.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 7.8 7.8 7.1 6.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 La Cygne 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 Trading Post 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water information. $$ SAW ####018018548#### FGUS73 KEAX 141842 CCA ESFEAX MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-150000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 139 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Final 2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River, Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. ...Below normal flood potential through mid-June along the Missouri River from the Iowa border through Boonville... ...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will likely experience minor to moderate flooding... Outlook: Through mid-June, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 20 to 35 percent lower than normal. Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from the Iowa border downstream to Atchison, Kansas range from 30 to 40 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding through mid-June. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent. Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger, Crooked, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each spring. Recent Conditions: During the past 30 days, precipitation amounts were in excess of 150 percent of normal along and roughly 40 miles north of a line from Leavenworth, Kansas to Carrollton and Glasgow, Missouri. Otherwise, the remainder of the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received mainly below normal precipitation. Over the previous 90-day period, the majority of the local region observed above normal precipitation with many areas reporting amounts 125 to 200 percent of normal. 30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central Missouri. These values were 6 to 10 degrees above normal. For the past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values ranging 3 to 7 degrees warmer than average. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates 98 percent of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, around 50 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 65 percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate drought, and 7 percent severe drought. No snow cover is present across the local area or Plains region. In addition, below normal snowpack continues across mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin. 7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below normal streamflow conditions continued across much of far northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent rainfall brought above normal conditions to the Marias Des Cygnes basin, and normal streamflow to the Blue and Osage basins. Future Conditions: 7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a quarter inch. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA. This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2024. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Delaware River Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 36 40 24 36 <5 <5 :Stranger Creek Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 74 90 68 77 9 9 Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 47 67 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 22 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Missouri River St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 38 73 20 52 7 14 Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 31 66 12 26 7 18 Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 24 60 11 23 <5 9 Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 15 43 9 22 <5 8 Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 9 20 6 12 <5 <5 Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 52 80 20 33 5 10 Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 59 80 15 25 6 12 Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 60 81 15 29 10 15 Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 59 79 48 75 15 34 Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 58 77 16 22 <5 9 :Tarkio River Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 55 81 48 79 42 51 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 8 15 <5 5 <5 <5 :102 River Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 23 43 12 18 <5 <5 Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 25 52 25 52 7 8 :Platte River Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 88 37 62 5 7 :Little Platte River Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 48 72 38 62 10 27 Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 61 86 32 48 8 24 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 30 33 10 11 <5 <5 Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 17 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 22 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 24 26 <5 5 <5 <5 Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 53 41 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked River Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 63 78 57 72 <5 <5 :Wakenda Creek Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 51 67 49 61 13 17 :Blackwater River Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 67 93 61 84 22 29 Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 84 94 42 57 10 12 :Lamine River Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 56 62 46 50 11 11 :Moniteau Creek Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 72 81 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Petite Saline Creek Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 54 64 48 51 <5 <5 :Thompson River Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 35 45 19 20 7 8 :Grand River Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 44 69 27 58 22 43 Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 48 70 11 21 7 8 Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 65 77 58 70 32 38 Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 77 84 74 82 9 9 Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 62 79 21 26 9 9 :Chariton River Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 35 39 26 27 16 20 Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 58 74 32 34 17 17 :South Grand River Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 73 71 44 49 <5 <5 :Big Creek Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 96 >98 89 89 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 47 47 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 59 66 37 43 <5 <5 Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 49 50 33 43 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 4.7 6.2 9.8 20.1 27.9 29.0 30.8 :Stranger Creek Easton 7.3 14.0 16.9 20.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 Tonganoxie 7.6 12.1 20.0 22.6 25.3 25.7 27.9 :Kansas River De Soto 6.3 7.8 10.5 13.3 20.1 23.4 26.5 Turner Bridge KCK 6.3 11.6 13.4 19.6 30.0 35.2 40.5 23rd Street KCK 12.3 15.9 17.1 21.8 31.0 36.0 41.5 :Missouri River St Joseph 7.0 7.5 11.1 15.5 19.7 24.5 28.3 Atchison 9.4 10.0 14.8 19.4 23.2 28.2 31.1 Leavenworth 4.1 4.7 9.1 14.7 19.8 24.9 29.2 Parkville 9.4 10.9 13.8 18.0 22.3 27.6 32.3 Kansas City 12.0 13.8 16.4 20.2 27.4 31.7 37.9 Napoleon 8.9 11.3 13.3 17.4 22.3 27.3 30.4 Waverly 12.5 15.1 17.0 21.3 24.8 30.4 31.4 Miami 9.3 12.8 15.7 21.0 24.3 29.0 30.0 Glasgow 13.3 18.7 21.8 26.8 30.1 36.2 39.9 Boonville 10.4 14.4 17.6 23.3 26.6 32.9 33.7 :Tarkio River Fairfax 8.3 10.3 12.2 17.6 27.0 28.6 29.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.4 16.3 20.4 26.6 :102 River Maryville 9.4 10.8 12.3 14.0 17.2 24.0 25.2 Rosendale 7.5 10.7 13.2 15.4 18.1 22.4 23.1 :Platte River Agency 11.0 16.9 19.1 22.8 25.9 27.1 29.9 :Little Platte River Smithville 13.5 14.0 14.5 16.9 20.0 21.5 26.2 :Platte River Sharps Station 13.7 19.7 22.6 25.2 31.3 33.0 35.0 Platte City 10.9 16.7 18.9 20.5 25.4 28.0 31.3 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 28.1 29.1 33.1 36.6 39.0 40.1 Bannister Road Ka 7.8 9.4 15.8 22.3 30.9 35.5 37.6 71 Highway Kansas 6.7 8.8 15.6 19.8 26.3 31.0 33.0 63rd Street Kansa 10.3 11.9 15.9 19.5 25.8 30.8 32.4 Colorado Avenue K 9.9 11.3 15.3 18.4 23.4 28.2 29.8 Stadium Drive Kan 8.9 10.6 15.5 21.4 27.4 30.9 32.6 17th Street Kansa 12.5 14.8 18.9 23.9 29.3 32.5 33.8 12th Street Kansa 8.5 10.6 14.0 18.0 24.8 27.7 29.0 :Little Blue River Lake City 6.0 7.8 12.9 18.1 20.9 23.9 24.2 :Crooked River Richmond 6.4 11.4 16.5 21.8 24.8 26.6 27.0 :Thompson River Trenton 12.0 15.0 18.2 24.6 29.3 32.3 35.5 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.2 4.6 7.2 20.9 30.8 34.3 42.6 Gallatin 5.8 8.1 14.2 25.7 30.6 33.9 41.0 Chillicothe 7.3 11.8 18.0 29.6 38.1 40.4 41.3 Sumner 11.3 17.4 27.6 33.5 37.1 39.3 42.2 Brunswick 6.2 13.6 17.4 20.5 24.8 30.9 38.2 :Chariton River Novinger 1.8 3.8 11.4 15.7 23.3 27.2 29.4 Prairie Hill 3.2 9.3 13.9 16.1 19.4 22.1 23.7 :South Grand River Urich 11.7 17.8 24.1 25.8 28.3 28.8 31.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 21.4 23.0 23.4 24.3 26.1 27.0 27.3 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 16.0 18.7 21.9 26.4 34.6 36.7 38.3 La Cygne 10.5 13.7 20.6 27.9 32.8 33.5 34.0 Trading Post 11.7 15.1 21.6 26.8 34.9 37.7 38.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Stranger Creek Easton 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Tonganoxie 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Kansas River De Soto 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Missouri River St Joseph 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 Atchison 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 Parkville 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Kansas City 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Napoleon 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Waverly 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Miami 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Glasgow 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Boonville 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 :102 River Maryville 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Platte River Agency 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 :Little Platte River Smithville 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 :Platte River Sharps Station 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 Stadium Drive Kan 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 17th Street Kansa 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 12th Street Kansa 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Little Blue River Lake City 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 :Crooked River Richmond 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.6 :Thompson River Trenton 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 :Grand River Pattonsburg 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Gallatin 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Chillicothe 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 Sumner 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.2 :Chariton River Prairie Hill 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 :South Grand River Urich 3.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 7.8 7.8 7.1 6.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 La Cygne 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 Trading Post 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water information. $$ SAW