####018019260#### FGUS73 KTOP 141855 ESFTOP KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177- 197-201-150000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 154 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Final 2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east central Kansas. ...There is a near normal probability of flooding during the next three months... Outlook: The probability of flooding through mid-June is near normal across the NWS Topeka HSA. The greatest chances of minor flooding during the outlook period range from 30 to 50 percent and include the following locations: Mill Creek at Washington, Big Blue River at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion River at Frankfort, Mill Creek at Paxico, Solomon River at Niles, Saline River at Tescott, Smoky Hill at Enterprise, Salt Creek at Lyndon, Pottawatomie Creek at Garnett, Cottonwood River at Emporia, Neosho River from Emporia through Neosho Rapids, and Marias Des Cygnes River from Reading through Ottawa. Recent Conditions: During the past 30 days, most locations across the NWS Topeka HSA received 75 percent or less of normal precipitation. The driest region was found along a line from Clay Center to Blue Rapids where less than a half inch of precipitation was observed. Widespread above normal precipitation was observed across the NWS Topeka HSA during the past 90-day period. Almost all locations received in excess of 150 percent of normal precipitation with a significant coverage of over 200 percent of normal. Liquid precipitation amounts generally ranged from 2 to 4 inches above normal. Mean temperature the past 30 days was 4 to 8 degrees above normal across the NWS Topeka HSA. Values ranged in the lower to middle 40s. 90-day mean temperatures were generally 2 to 5 degrees above normal. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that around 80 percent of the Topeka HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, roughly 50 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. There is currently no snow cover over Kansas and southern Nebraska. In addition, no snow cover is found across the headwaters of the Republican River in northeast Colorado. USGS 7-Day average streamflow values are generally normal to above normal across the following basins: Cottonwood, Neosho, and Marias Des Cygnes. Elsewhere, the majority of the NWS Topeka HSA currently is experiencing below to much below normal streamflow conditions. Future Conditions: Over the next 7 days, a tenth of an inch or less of liquid precipitation is expected across the Topeka HSA. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring normal temperatures and slightly favoring above normal precipitation. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Topeka HSA. This is the final 2024 Spring Flood Outlook. --------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Big Blue River Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 6 5 6 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 33 37 33 34 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 26 34 5 8 <5 <5 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 51 63 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 39 47 7 8 <5 <5 :Fancy Creek Randolph 16.0 24.0 40.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chapman Creek Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 25 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Lyon Creek Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 22 34 <5 6 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 20 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 7 21 <5 5 <5 <5 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 19 34 9 22 5 7 :Kansas River Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 14 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 14 23 6 12 <5 <5 :Rock Creek Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cross Creek Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 6 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 41 50 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 6 6 5 6 <5 <5 :Soldier Creek Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 7 9 7 8 <5 <5 Topeka 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Lecompton 17.0 23.8 27.0 : 19 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 16 21 6 6 <5 <5 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 12 13 8 8 <5 <5 :Republican River Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 12 5 8 <5 7 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 14 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elk Creek Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Clay Center 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 25 35 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Solomon River Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 12 32 7 25 <5 <5 Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 6 16 <5 8 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Ada 18.0 20.0 24.0 : 11 26 11 24 <5 <5 :Solomon River Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 40 55 21 50 <5 <5 :Saline River Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 32 43 18 35 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 18 29 6 14 <5 <5 :Mud Creek Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 31 51 30 50 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 51 56 49 53 <5 <5 Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 56 52 30 32 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 41 47 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 46 47 9 10 <5 <5 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 35 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 16 19 13 13 <5 <5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 11 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 45 42 31 25 <5 <5 :Neosho River Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 13 11 8 <5 <5 <5 Emporia 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 29 24 27 23 <5 <5 Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 49 36 43 32 <5 <5 Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 28 21 28 21 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 16.2 17.4 20.4 23.7 28.6 30.8 33.7 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 3.3 3.7 4.8 9.1 11.7 14.4 18.8 :Mill Creek Washington 2.5 3.0 6.2 12.0 21.3 21.7 22.8 :Little Blue River Barnes 5.8 6.5 8.9 11.9 16.4 19.5 23.9 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 18.5 19.8 23.6 26.2 31.6 34.6 41.4 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 5.1 8.9 11.6 15.9 24.3 27.1 27.6 :Fancy Creek Randolph 1.0 1.3 2.9 4.5 8.7 14.2 18.0 :Chapman Creek Chapman 4.4 4.9 7.7 9.9 19.2 21.5 22.1 :Lyon Creek Junction City 6.1 6.3 7.7 11.0 20.5 28.8 32.1 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.2 3.8 6.1 8.7 20.0 23.8 25.3 :Kansas River Ft Riley 6.0 7.1 8.8 10.9 17.9 19.6 22.6 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 2.6 2.7 4.2 5.5 11.6 15.2 23.0 :Kansas River Manhattan 6.3 6.9 8.5 10.7 16.6 18.4 20.9 Wamego 4.5 6.3 7.6 10.2 14.2 15.0 17.5 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 3.2 3.6 5.4 8.3 15.0 22.4 24.6 :Rock Creek Louisville 8.9 9.1 10.3 13.3 19.4 22.0 24.4 :Kansas River Belvue 6.6 8.3 9.5 11.9 15.0 17.4 17.6 :Cross Creek Rossville 7.3 8.5 12.2 13.5 20.6 24.0 26.7 :Mill Creek Paxico 2.8 3.9 5.4 12.5 26.3 28.5 29.3 :Kansas River Topeka 6.5 9.0 10.4 13.9 20.0 24.5 26.8 :Soldier Creek Delia 5.9 7.1 8.3 16.6 22.5 23.7 27.6 Topeka 1.2 1.9 3.4 10.2 15.1 21.2 22.9 :Kansas River Lecompton 3.1 5.3 6.7 10.2 15.7 18.8 20.6 Lawrence 7.9 9.6 10.5 13.1 16.6 18.5 20.7 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 5.5 6.1 9.4 15.0 20.6 24.0 27.4 :Republican River Scandia 2.3 2.5 3.5 4.2 8.3 9.7 12.5 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 4.3 10.1 14.2 18.0 18.3 :Republican River Concordia 5.8 6.0 6.8 8.0 12.2 13.3 14.8 :Elk Creek Clyde 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.7 8.2 12.1 :Republican River Clay Center 8.3 8.3 10.1 12.2 15.0 18.7 20.1 :Solomon River Glasco 3.5 3.5 4.6 7.9 18.1 23.9 27.4 Minneapolis 2.1 2.2 3.0 6.2 13.0 17.9 28.1 :Salt Creek Ada 3.5 3.5 4.2 5.7 12.5 19.7 20.2 :Solomon River Niles 4.0 5.8 9.7 22.0 27.6 29.3 29.8 :Saline River Tescott 5.6 5.6 8.3 10.2 26.7 30.5 31.1 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 6.4 9.4 13.1 16.0 21.9 29.8 30.3 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.6 4.3 8.0 12.4 14.2 15.3 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 9.1 11.2 14.1 17.4 28.4 31.0 32.7 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 4.3 5.8 6.9 19.5 23.6 24.5 24.8 Quenemo 5.0 5.2 7.7 18.4 26.9 29.0 29.9 :Salt Creek Lyndon 1.4 1.6 3.6 7.2 12.2 14.7 15.7 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 6.9 7.8 14.9 21.5 32.6 32.9 34.7 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 10.4 15.1 18.8 23.6 26.7 28.4 30.0 Lane 8.0 8.7 10.9 17.4 22.0 24.9 25.9 :Turkey Creek Seneca 2.4 6.2 7.5 11.5 16.7 21.3 22.8 :Cottonwood River Emporia 4.2 6.5 12.1 18.8 25.8 26.5 26.7 :Neosho River Americus 6.2 7.6 9.8 13.2 23.8 26.6 27.6 Emporia 11.2 11.6 12.5 14.1 20.2 23.9 24.3 Neosho Rapids 4.8 7.4 11.9 21.8 26.3 28.8 30.5 Burlington 9.4 10.9 15.1 22.7 23.3 26.3 27.5 Leroy 6.8 9.6 15.4 19.6 23.6 27.1 27.6 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 :Mill Creek Washington 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Little Blue River Barnes 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.1 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 :Fancy Creek Randolph 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Chapman Creek Chapman 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Lyon Creek Junction City 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Kansas River Ft Riley 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Kansas River Manhattan 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Wamego 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Rock Creek Louisville 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 :Kansas River Belvue 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Cross Creek Rossville 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 :Mill Creek Paxico 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Kansas River Topeka 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Soldier Creek Delia 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 :Kansas River Lecompton 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Lawrence 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 :Republican River Scandia 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Republican River Concordia 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 :Republican River Clay Center 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 :Solomon River Glasco 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Minneapolis 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 :Salt Creek Ada 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Solomon River Niles 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 :Saline River Tescott 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Quenemo 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 :Salt Creek Lyndon 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Lane 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 :Turkey Creek Seneca 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water information. $$ SAW