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109-123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-191900-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

300 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024



...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL IN NORTHERN BASINS AND ABOUT 

AVERAGE ELSEWHERE...



This is the sixth edition of the series of regularly scheduled 

Hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter to Spring transition 

season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of 

river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York

and Northeast Pennsylvania through March 28, 2024. Remember that

persistent heavy rainfall is the most important determining 

factor toward the development and severity of flooding in our 

area.



...SUMMARY...



The river and lake flood potential for the NWS Binghamton 

hydrologic service area ranges from below normal throughout the

Finger Lakes region and Oswego basin drainage to near normal

in the Upper Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins.



...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 14...



Recent Precipitation: Much above normal. Weekly departures were 

showing between 150 to 300 percent of normal for most of the 

region, but closer to average for a portion of the Finger Lakes 

and the northwest Chemung basin.



Snow Cover: Below normal. There is no snow cover in CNY or NEPA.



Snow Water Equivalent: Below normal. None.



Streamflow + Lake levels: Weekly and monthly average streamflows

are above normal. Lake and reservoir levels are above normal. 



Groundwater: Above normal storage.



River Ice: Normal. No ice is observed on area rivers.



Soil States: Much wetter than normal, especially eastern 2/3rds of

the area.



METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC FORECAST OUTLOOK...



FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS:

The official 6 to 14 day outlook indicates colder than normal

temperatures with near normal precipitation during week 1 of the

outlook with a trend toward warmer temperatures and above normal

precipitation during week 2. Medium range ensemble forecast models

indicate a low-medium (30%-50%) probability of total rainfall

exceeding 2 inches over the outlook period and a less than 10%

chance of exceeding 4 inches.





LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS:

The ensemble of river forecast system guidance suggests less than

a 10% chance for river flooding developing during the next 10

days. Historically, the hydroclimatology of the region indicates

an average probability of 30% to 60% for river flooding during 

mid to late March. Currently, the operational hydrologic modeling 

indicates only about a 10% to 20% probability of flooding through 

the end of this month which is suggestive of a below normal risk.



...IN CONCLUSION...



With the significant lack of snow cover coupled with a relatively

dry 2-week forecast being offset by excessive moisture in the 

soils along with elevated streamflows and groundwater levels, the 

overall river flood potential is determined to be near normal in

the Upper Susquehanna and Delaware basins but below normal in the

Oswego drainage basin due to slightly drier conditions.



If conditions change over the next two weeks, Flood Watches and 

Warnings will be issued as necessary. The next Outlook is 

scheduled for March 29, 2024.



$$



JAB