####018015829#### FGUS73 KGLD 142145 ESFGLD COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199- 203-NEC057-087-145-150945- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 345 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 /445 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/ ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook... This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which refers to major rivers located... - In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado - In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska - In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton counties. These river systems include: -The Republican River -The North and South Forks of the Republican River -The North and South Forks of the Solomon River -The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers -Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks This outlook is valid from March 14 to 28. Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive precipitation. For calendar year so far, the HSA has seen 0.5 to 3 inches of precipitation, with majority of it falling in the central to southeastern HSA. No known snowpack remains. Current soil temperatures are ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s, according to the latest two and four inch soil temperatures, courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet. Soil moisture conditions are currently slightly above to near normal over the area. Near to slightly below normal temperatures for the upcoming week are expected to slowly dry soil conditions. The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows a small amount of severe drought over the far eastern HSA quickly becoming less severe to the west. East of the Colorado border and north of I-70, abnormally dry conditions are found with the remainder of the HSA not classified by the drought monitor. The 3- month outlook(valid for March 1 - May 1), has drought conditions improving across the entire Goodland Service Area. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov), shows the latest 8-14 day outlook forecasting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the March 20 - 26 period. The latest 3-month outlook for March, April, and May, forecasts equal chances for above and below normal temperatures and leans towards above normal precipitation. Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at Enders Dam, 19.8 percent. For the Medicine Creek, 95.6percent. For the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 52.5 percent. For the Red Willow Dam, 47.9 percent and for the Trenton Dam, 57.9 percent. All of these are showing an increase from over the past two weeks. These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water information. Flooding potential over the next two weeks is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out entirely due to above average precipitation being expected. The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued in 2025. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :SMOKY HILL R AT OAKLEY KS 22S OKYK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :HACKBERRY CR AT GOVE KS 4W GOVK1 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ARNOLD KS 12N ARNK1 7.0 9.0 11.0 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT SCHOENCHEN KS 2E SCSK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT ELLIS KS ELLK1 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BIG CR AT HAYS KS 2SSE HYSK1 26.0 29.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT RUSSELL KS 8S RSLK1 18.0 20.0 38.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :SMOKY HILL R AT ELLSWORTH KS ELWK1 20.0 24.0 27.0 5 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT WAKEENEY KS 5N WAAK1 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALINE R AT RUSSELL KS 5N RUSK1 18.0 20.0 23.0 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LENORA AT LENORA KS LNRK1 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK SOLOMON R AT GLADE KS 1S GDEK1 11.0 16.0 18.0 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5 :BOW CR AT STOCKTON KS 9N SKTK1 9.0 12.0 13.6 11 23 <5 7 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SMOKY HILL R OKYK1 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 6.0/ 7.1/ 7.8/ 8.4 :HACKBERRY CR GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 9.0/ 10.4 :SMOKY HILL R ARNK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.1/ 1.7/ 4.7/ 6.1/ 7.2 SCSK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.3/ 5.8/ 8.8/ 12.8 :BIG CR ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.5/ 10.2/ 11.8/ 12.6 HYSK1 4.8/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.7/ 8.3/ 16.1/ 17.7 :SMOKY HILL R RSLK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 6.4/ 10.5/ 13.5/ 16.8 ELWK1 1.3/ 1.4/ 3.9/ 6.6/ 10.0/ 16.1/ 21.3 :SALINE R WAAK1 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 4.6/ 9.3/ 11.3 RUSK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 7.0/ 8.9/ 15.6/ 17.8 :LENORA LNRK1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.8/ 4.9/ 6.4/ 6.8 :N FK SOLOMON R GDEK1 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 5.3/ 8.5/ 10.0/ 13.4 :BOW CR SKTK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 7.1/ 9.3/ 11.2 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SMOKY HILL R OKYK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9 :HACKBERRY CR GOVK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 :SMOKY HILL R ARNK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 SCSK1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :BIG CR ELLK1 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.4 HYSK1 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :SMOKY HILL R RSLK1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 ELWK1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9 :SALINE R WAAK1 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5 RUSK1 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :LENORA LNRK1 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.3 :N FK SOLOMON R GDEK1 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1 :BOW CR SKTK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0 :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :S FK REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE BEKN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ARIKAREE R AT HAIGLER NE HAIN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT BENKELMAN NE 1SW BENN1 7.0 9.0 11.0 10 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT STRATTON NE STTN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FRENCHMAN CR AT PALISADE NE PALN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 18 13 5 <5 <5 <5 :STINKING WATER CR AT PALISADE NE 2NW PASN1 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FRENCHMAN CR AT CULBERTSON NE CULN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :DRIFTWOOD CR AT MCCOOK NE 4SW MCKN1 17.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT MCCOOK NE 1SE MKRN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT CAMBRIDGE NE 1E CAMN1 9.0 10.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :REPUBLICAN R AT ORLEANS NE 2W ORNN1 9.0 11.0 13.0 16 21 6 15 <5 9 :BEAVER CR AT LUDELL KS LDLK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 40 43 7 7 <5 <5 :BEAVER CR AT CEDAR BLUFFS KS CDBK1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAVER CREEK AT BEAVER CITY 4WSW BEVN1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT OBERLIN KS 1SW OBNK1 11.0 14.0 17.0 30 31 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT NORCATUR KS 15NE NCRK1 17.0 20.0 22.0 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT BEAVER CITY NE 7SW BVSN1 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SAPPA CR AT STAMFORD NE 4E STMN1 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PRAIRIE DOG CR AT WOODRUFF KS 3WSW WDRK1 19.0 24.0 30.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK REPUBLICAN R BEKN1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 4.3/ 5.3/ 5.4 :ARIKAREE R HAIN1 7.3/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 8.4/ 10.1/ 10.6/ 10.8 :REPUBLICAN R BENN1 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.9/ 7.0/ 7.3 STTN1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.7/ 8.8/ 10.0/ 10.9 :FRENCHMAN CR PALN1 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 7.8/ 8.0 :STINKING WATER CR PASN1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.5/ 6.0/ 6.6 :FRENCHMAN CR CULN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 6.7/ 7.8 :DRIFTWOOD CR MCKN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 9.1/ 11.9/ 14.8/ 15.2 :REPUBLICAN R MKRN1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 6.3/ 7.2/ 8.1/ 8.2 CAMN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 3.5/ 5.3/ 6.9/ 8.1 ORNN1 1.4/ 1.4/ 2.3/ 4.5/ 7.2/ 9.8/ 11.8 :BEAVER CR LDLK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.4/ 7.6/ 9.9/ 10.4/ 11.0 CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 7.2/ 9.2/ 10.0/ 11.3 :BEAVER CREEK BEVN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 5.5/ 8.4/ 9.7/ 10.7 :SAPPA CR OBNK1 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 8.5/ 12.2/ 13.5/ 13.8 NCRK1 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 8.8/ 14.5/ 16.6/ 17.1 BVSN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 5.7/ 9.8/ 11.5/ 12.7 STMN1 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 9.6/ 11.8/ 14.1/ 14.3 :PRAIRIE DOG CR WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 4.2/ 7.3/ 10.7/ 13.8/ 17.6 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :S FK REPUBLICAN R BEKN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :ARIKAREE R HAIN1 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1 :REPUBLICAN R BENN1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7 STTN1 6.1/ 5.9/ 5.4/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7 :FRENCHMAN CR PALN1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3 :STINKING WATER CR PASN1 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 1.6/ 0.0/ 0.0 :FRENCHMAN CR CULN1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 :DRIFTWOOD CR MCKN1 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4 :REPUBLICAN R MKRN1 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 CAMN1 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8 ORNN1 1.3/ 1.0/ 0.6/ 0.4/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 :BEAVER CR LDLK1 2.5/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 CDBK1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 :BEAVER CREEK BEVN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 :SAPPA CR OBNK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 NCRK1 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 BVSN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 STMN1 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 :PRAIRIE DOG CR WDRK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 $$