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181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-

337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-220242-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 

942 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024



...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas...

  

The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has  

implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the 

Sabine River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National

Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.

This service is also available on the Internet.

  

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during

the next 90 days. Example: The South Fork of the Sabine River 

near Quinlan has a flood stage of 15 feet. There is a 50 percent

chance the Quinlan forecast point will rise above 17.3 feet

during the next 90 days.

  

        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations

            Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024

  

Location     FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

South Fork Sabine River

 Quinlan       15.0 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.0

Cowleech Fork Sabine River

 Greenville    14.0 13.6 16.6 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5

    

Location        90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

--------        ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---

Lk Tawakoni    438.4 438.4 438.4 438.7 438.9 439.1 440.1 440.3 440.9

        

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are

calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical 

climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take 

into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.

By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the 

level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can

be determined.

  

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the

Internet at:  water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fwd  

  

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third

Thursday of every month.

    

$$