####018003835#### FGUS74 KFWD 211515 ESFFWD TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161- 181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333- 337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-220314- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1015 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Trinity River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Trinity River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. Example: The West Fork of the Trinity River near Jacksboro has a flood stage of 20 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Jacksboro forecast point will rise above 11.0 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- West Fork Trinity River Jacksboro 20.0 4.0 5.4 5.7 8.6 11.0 15.1 18.9 20.7 23.0 Boyd 16.0 6.4 6.8 8.8 10.2 11.8 13.9 15.6 18.1 19.5 Fort Worth 20.0 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.5 11.1 Grand Prairie 30.0 9.9 10.7 11.5 13.1 15.0 17.1 20.2 23.4 28.3 Big Sandy Creek Bridgeport 12.0 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.2 6.1 7.6 9.3 13.3 Clear Fork Trinity River Weatherford 15.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.4 7.6 15.4 15.9 Fort Worth 15.0 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.8 14.1 14.8 15.8 Denton Creek Justin 10.0 5.7 6.6 7.7 8.8 9.2 10.1 11.5 13.7 14.5 Elm Fork Trinity River Gainesville 22.0 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.7 6.4 8.2 9.4 10.3 13.8 Carrollton 9.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.8 8.6 9.8 Clear Creek Sanger 25.0 6.8 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.4 10.3 12.4 13.5 20.1 Sister Grove Creek Blue Ridge 24.0 17.8 19.7 21.4 22.0 23.4 25.5 26.1 26.9 27.4 East Fork Trinity River Mckinney 16.0 12.0 14.5 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.7 18.9 Crandall 18.0 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.2 6.1 8.8 12.6 18.5 22.5 Chambers Creek Rice 24.0 9.7 11.0 13.6 14.5 16.9 19.2 24.2 30.3 30.6 Trinity River Dallas 30.0 24.5 25.6 26.6 28.1 31.0 32.5 33.6 35.6 39.7 Rosser 31.0 12.0 13.0 15.1 16.7 19.1 21.1 26.3 33.6 37.3 Trinidad 33.0 24.4 26.6 28.5 31.3 34.1 35.3 40.1 41.4 47.8 Long Lake 35.0 24.0 24.0 24.2 27.4 32.8 33.3 36.9 43.7 47.3 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Worth 597.0 593.2 593.5 593.7 594.0 594.1 594.4 594.8 595.6 597.0 Lk Arlington 550.5 551.5 551.8 552.4 552.6 552.9 553.2 554.4 558.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fwd Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$