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ESFLUB

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Hydrologic Statement

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

1036 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024



..Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) 

Long Range Probabilistic Outlook For The Brazos 

River Basin In West Central Texas...

  

The National Weather Service Office in Lubbock Texas has  

implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for  

the Brazos River Basin in West Central Texas. AHPS enables the

National Weather Service to provide Long Range Probabilistic 

Outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet.

  

In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the 

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the 

next 90 days.  Example:  The Double Mountain Fork Of The Brazos 

River near Aspermont 10S has a Flood Stage of 21.0 Feet.  There is 

a 50 percent chance the Aspermont Forecast Point will rise above 

8.2 feet 

during the next 90 days.

  

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

            VALID [ 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 ]

  

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

SALT FORK OF THE BRAZOS RIVER

 ASPERMONT 13N 12.0  2.9  3.1  3.4  4.1  4.4  4.7  4.9  5.4  5.8

DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK BRAZOS RIVER

 Justiceburg   19.0  7.6  7.8  7.9  8.0  8.2  8.5  8.7  9.2 11.8

 Aspermont 10S 21.0  5.7  6.4  6.9  7.2  8.2  8.6  9.6 10.4 13.3

    





Lake Alan Henry

    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%

    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---

   2215.7 2215.7 2215.7 2215.7 2215.9 2216.3 2216.7 2219.2 2220.5

        

This Long Range Probabilistic Outlook contains numbers that are

calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical 

climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take 

into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.

by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the 

level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can 

be determined.

  

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the 

Internet at:  http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lub  

  

Long-Range Probabilistic Outlooks are issued around the third 

Thursday of every month.

    

$$