####018002335#### FGUS74 KOUN 211549 ESFOUN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-220348- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Brazos River Basin in Western North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Norman Oklahoma has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in western north Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River at Seymour has a flood stage of 12 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Seymour forecast point will rise above 4.7 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Brazos River Seymour 12.0 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.7 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.8 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Miller Creek Millers Cr Lk 1340.0 1325.7 1325.9 1326.3 1326.6 1327.1 40% 30% 20% 10% ------ ------ ------ ------ 1327.6 1328.0 1329.6 1333.1 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oun Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$