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FGUS74 KSJT 211958

ESFSJT

TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-

431-441-451-220757-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

258 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024



Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Long range probabilistic outlook for the Brazos

River basin in West Central Texas





The National Weather Service office in San Angelo, Texas has

implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for

the Brazos River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the

National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic

outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.





In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the

next 90 days. Example: The Clear Fork of the Brazos River near

Roby has a flood stage of 22 feet. There is a 50 percent chance

the Roby forecast point will rise above 7.4 feet during the

 next 90 days.





        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

            VALID   03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024

  

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Clear Fork Brazos River

 Roby          18.0  4.1  4.1  4.2  6.6  7.4  9.2  9.6 11.1 15.0

 Hawley        14.0  1.4  1.4  1.9  3.0  3.4  4.5  5.5  6.7  9.7

 Nugent        18.0  1.8  1.8  2.0  2.7  3.0  3.7  4.6  5.1  5.9

 Ft Griffin    35.0  6.5  7.0  7.7  7.9  8.8 10.2 13.2 13.8 19.4

California Creek

 Stamford      28.0  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  8.6 11.1 13.9

Hubbard Creek

 Albany        35.0  3.6  4.5  5.5  6.1  6.8  7.3  8.7  9.9 11.8









Lake Sweetwater

    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%

    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---

 2103.4 2103.4  2103.4 2103.4 2103.4 2103.4 2103.7 2104.5 2105.8





Lake Ft Phantom Hill

    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%

    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---

 1629.2 1629.2  1629.2 1629.2 1629.2 1629.3 1629.5 1629.9 1630.6





Lake Stamford

    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%

    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---

 1413.4 1413.4  1413.4 1413.4 1413.4 1413.4 1413.5 1413.7 1414.4





This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are

calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical

climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take

into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.

By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the

level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can

be determined.





Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the

internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt





Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third

Thursday of every month.





$$





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