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Water Supply Outlook                                           January 7, 2024





ABRFC will be using the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.



The fall and early winter season have been a little dryer than normal for the 

Arkansas and Canadian River Basins. Conditions have been especially dry across New 

Mexico and southern Colorado. Storm systems have become a little more numerous

over the past couple of weeks, so hopefully a wetter weather pattern will continue.



At the end of December, snowpack conditions were a little below normal across the 

Upper Arkansas Basin and significantly below normal in the Canadian Basin.



Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 79 percent-of-average for the 

Arkansas River at Salida and 80 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff 

from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 61, 75, and 

65 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 88 percent-

of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 73 percent-

of-average. 



In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is 

forecast to be 58 and 55 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and 

Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 50 and 56 percent-of-average, respectively. 



Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-December) in the mountain headwaters 

of Colorado is near median, overall. Reports range from 76 percent-of-

median at Fremont Pass to 126 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above 

Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is below median with 79 percent-of-

median snowpack. Snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 56 percent-of-

median. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at 63 percent-of-median.



New Mexico's water-year-to-date precipitation is below median. Reports range from 

46 percent-of-median at Tolby to 74 percent-of-median at Wesner Springs. The 

snowpack in the Canadian River basin is well below normal at 68 percent-of-median. 



Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 112 percent-of-median above 

Pueblo Reservoir and 69 percent-of-median below the resorvoir.  The upper reservoirs 

are at 128 percent of last year's total.  The lower reservoirs are at 161 percent of 

last year's total.



The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation 

outlooks for the nation. The outlook for January through March calls for equal chances

of above, below, or near normal temperatures in the Arkansas and Canadian Basins. 

The outlook calls for increased chances for above normal precipitation across 

Colorado and New Mexico.





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