####018003167####
AWUS01 KWNH 100514

FFGMPD

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101015-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0256

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

114 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024



Areas affected...southern MS/AL, northwestern FL Panhandle and

southwestern GA



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 100513Z - 101015Z



SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible through 10Z

from 4+ inch rainfall totals across the southern Gulf Coast

states. The potential for these higher end rainfall totals would

fall in a 2-3 hour window, resulting from west to east training.



DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorm clusters were noted on

regional radar imagery at 0445Z, extending from western GA to the

Sabine River Valley. The strongest of the region was located over

eastern LA into MS, with IR cloud tops of -65 to -75 C on 10.3

micron imagery. It was here that a slow moving cold front was

analyzed, with a 1008 mb low in southwestern MS, east of HEZ. More

recent development was noted over south-central AL on convective

outflow. Another remnant outflow boundary, currently not active,

was analyzed from Apalachee Bay into the FL Panhandle and

southeastern AL, where it intersected the advancing outflow

boundary to the north. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed the

environment ahead of the cold front from central LA into southern

MS/AL contained MLCAPE of 2500 to near 3500 J/kg with weak to

negligible inhibition.



Given the moist (PWATs 1.6 to 2.0 inches) and unstable environment

along with trends in IR satellite imagery, convection is likely to

maintain for at least another few hours. Corfidi vectors and short

term HRRR guidance support that the cluster over LA/MS/AL will

track toward the ESE through 10Z, with periods of west to east

training, especially along the southwestern flank of the expanding

MCS, given its present orientation.



Additional convective development will be possible in the vicinity

of the remnant outflow boundary over southeastern AL into the FL

Panhandle as increasing moisture transport within the 850-700 mb

layer allows for weakening lower level CIN, inferred by area 00Z

ROABs and RAP analysis soundings. While timing of this is

uncertain, recent HRRR guidance suggests development in the 06-08Z

time frame. Should such development occur, it will carry the

potential for short term training, followed by the approach of the

upstream MCS, possibly leading to heavy rainfall totals. The

latest thinking is for portions of the southern Gulf Coast states

to receive 4+ inches of rain in 2-3 hours, which could support

localized areas of flash flooding, especially within urban areas

or other locations of poor drainage.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   32478875 32458769 32458616 32358530 31538456 

            30488490 30678727 30688959 30759060 30979096 

            31299111 31739103 31919022 32068981 32318934