####018002448#### AWUS01 KWNH 160727 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161325- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0425 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Louisiana into central Mississippi and a small part of east Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160725Z - 161325Z Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage over central Louisiana and should continue to do so throughout the discussion area. Flash flooding is likely given antecedent conditions over the past 24 hours. Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in convective coverage across central Louisiana between Alexandria and Winnfield, with more isolated activity noted across southwestern Mississippi. The convection was developing in response to increasing convergence on the northern end of enhanced 850mb flow, which has reached ~20 knots or so per mesoanalyses and models. The storms are in an abundantly moist environment (2-2.4 inch PW values) supporting efficient rainfall rates beneath heavier activity. Meanwhile, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE (peak over Louisiana) is proving sufficient for deep convective development. 1 inch/hr rain rates were already noted just northwest of Alexandria recently (per MRMS). Convective trends should continue through the morning hours. 850mb flow is progged to increase to 30 kt over south-central Louisiana, further enhancing convergence along a zone generally parallel to and in between the I-20 and US 84 corridors. This orientation will allow for training/repeating -- some occurring in areas that have already experienced 2-8 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours. FFG thresholds are near zero in areas of Louisiana that have experienced the highest rainfall totals recently, and increase to around 1-2 inches/hr across central Mississippi. The scenario supports a high likelihood of occasional FFG exceedance as convective coverage continues to expand through 13Z/8a central. Flash flooding is likely. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 33098937 32398861 31688883 30889048 30529266 31029453 31669462 32029432 32389358 32819185 ####018000731#### PENA01 KWNH 161200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12160626@@0NMCGPHMPDQ@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@>X~}||||{z|}|{|||}}}}}~~~~@@X@@X@@0425 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 06/16/2026 0727Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @