####018002624####
AWUS01 KWNH 201523

FFGMPD

TXZ000-OKZ000-202118-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0165

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1123 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024



Areas affected...western through northern Texas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 201518Z - 202118Z



Summary...A broad axis of rain and thunderstorms should repeat

across the discussion area for most of the day today.  The

orientation of the axis is favoring repeating and multiple areas

of 0.75+ inch/hr rain rates (locally greater than 1.5 inch/hr in

spots).  This long-duration event could lead to isolated/minor

flash flood potential especially in the most sensitive areas.



Discussion...An axis of deep convection continues to extend from

west-southwest to east-northeast along an 850mb front subjectively

analyzed from near Midland to near Dallas this morning.  Along

this boundary, scattered convection continues to move from west to

east and has contributed to areas of 1-3 inch rainfall totals this

morning.  A couple of areas are experiencing more

focused/concentrated convection likely tied to subtle shortwave

troughs moving through the region: 1) across northeast Texas where

a line of storms was propagating eastward along I-20 and I-30 near

Mount Pleasant and Tyler, and 2) north/northeast of Midland, TX

where steep mid-level lapse rates (>7C/km) were likely aiding in

robust updrafts amid 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE.  Scattered convection

persists between these two areas across north-central Texas

currently.  Also, a slightly higher-amplitude mid-level wave was

located over eastern Arizona this morning that will likely

continue to foster convective development along the discussion

area from west to east throughout the day today.



While 1-hr FFG thresholds are not likely to be exceeded on a

widespread basis today, the concern with the ongoing scenario is

that a continuation of scattered convection will likely repeat

over the same areas along the 850mb frontal zone for much of the

day.  Additional 2-4 inch rainfall totals are expected through 21Z

given the scenario.  These long-duration rainfall rates could lead

to a few areas of excessive runoff - especially in low-lying

and/or urban areas.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   33869954 33819582 33069465 32389461 32009573 

            31819857 31460153 31910284 32340303 32860277 

            33280210