####018002056####
AWUS01 KWNH 131709

FFGMPD

LAZ000-TXZ000-132137-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

108 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025



Areas affected...far southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 131707Z - 132137Z



Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible for the

next 2-4 hours (through 21Z) as slow-moving storms produce 1-3

inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area.



Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across

areas near Beaumont and Lake Charles over the past couple hours. 

These storms are in a weakly sheared environment, with slow

movement amid 2 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE promoting

rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr per MRMS.  Storms are focused along

a remnant outflow boundary extending from west-southwest to

east-northeast across the region and a newer, stronger outflow

boundary from south-central Louisiana that was currently near Lake

Charles and propagating westward.  These outflow boundaries will

continue to encourage deep moist convection over the next 2-4

hours over wet/sensitive ground conditions from prior rainfall

over the past 48 hours.  2-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds are likely

to be exceeded at times in this regime, and additional impacts to

metro areas in the discussion area (i.e., Lake Charles, Beaumont,

and eventually Houston) cannot be ruled out.



At some point beyond 21Z/4p CDT, the expectation is that

widespread convective overturning may temper the extent and

intensity of convection along with resultant rain rates.  Storms

will mainly be outflow dominant given the weak low-level and deep

shear across the discussion area.  Between no



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...



LAT...LON   31109459 31089369 30649264 30059260 29659409 

            29089601 29369649 30109621 30639552