####018003261#### AWUS01 KWNH 130352 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-130940- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0694 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1151 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 130340Z - 130940Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally focused areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will be a concern across areas of the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont region of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Areas of flash flooding are likely given expectations of high rainfall rates impacting locally sensitive terrain. Locally significant runoff problems will be possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows a slow-moving mid-level trough/closed low over the TN Valley which is yielding some broadly divergent flow aloft across the broader southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont region of the southern Mid-Atlantic. This is driving some deeper layer ascent/forcing which is working in tandem with very moist upslope flow into some of the terrain for slow-moving areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms. Overall, the airmass is not very unstable, with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but the 00Z RAOB soundings from KFFC and KGSO confirm the regional placement of a deeply moist vertical column with tall, skinny CAPE profiles and elevated WCDs which are strongly supportive of convective warm rain processes for enhanced rainfall rates. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches are in place with the OSPO ALPW data also confirming deep mid to upper-level moisture contributions around the southern and eastern flanks of the aforementioned trough/closed low over the TN Valley. The energy aloft coupled with modest orographics/upslope flow into the higher terrain and proximity of a stationary front will set the stage for slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and thunderstorms overnight. The latest multi-model hires CAM consensus would suggest the Blue Ridge and Piedmont region of western NC has the heaviest rainfall potential, with areas of concentrated convection setting up here with extreme rainfall rates potentially reaching 2 to 3+ inches/hour. However, adjacent areas of the southern Appalachians including northeast GA, northwest/upstate SC, and eastern TN are also at risk of seeing slow-moving clusters of convection with high rainfall rates. Given the setup for extreme rainfall, some localized areas of 3 to 6+ inches will be possible overnight. This will likely drive areas of flash flooding, and some of the flash flooding may be significant along the more sensitive/rugged upslope regions of southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont region of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 36898115 36868037 36617973 36177913 35417898 34917975 34838139 34668238 34268374 34418435 34818461 35578426 35808378 36158325 36408252 36608203 ####018001487#### PENA01 KWNH 131200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12130726@@0NMCGPHMPDp@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@;h"~~|||{|{{|}}}}~}}}~|}|||}}~@@h"@@h"@@=Ђ|{{{z{zzzzzzuz{z{{}}~}|{y@@Ѐ@@Ѐ@@#?|{|~~~}|{@@?@@?@@=Ђ|{{{z{zzzzzzuz{z{{}}~}|{y@@Ѐ@@Ѐ@@2~|zz{|}}~}~~@@@@@@#D}}|{zzz{||||}~@@D@@D@@_-0690 @@0691 @@ 0692 @@ 0693 @@D0694 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 07/13/2026 0352Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @