####018002678#### AWUS01 KWNH 130359 FFGMPD NCZ000-130700- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0693 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1158 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...Central NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 130238Z - 130700Z SUMMARY...Focused areas of extreme rainfall rates from slow-moving thunderstorms will yield more flash flooding for at least a few more hours. Locally significant/considerable urban impacts will be possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery has been showing some very cold convective tops within a very moist/unstable regime across central NC over the last couple of hours which has been facilitating some extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ inches/hour. Radar imagery over the last 30 minutes has been suggesting some small-scale MCV/mesocyclone activity associated with the strongest activity that is in close proximity to Smithfield, NC. The setup features an inverted surface trough that extends northeast across central NC from a surface low and attendant front across northern SC. This surface trough is focusing an axis of locally strong moisture convergence which coupled with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg and PWs of 2.25 inches has been favoring focused areas of persistent convection with high-end rainfall rates. Some modest deeper layer ascent/divergent flow aloft is noted downwind of the TN Valley mid-level trough axis and this is likely helping to play a role with the persistence and recent intensification of thunderstorms across central NC. The latest model guidance suggests that enough forcing could persist across the region for convection to sustain itself for at least a few more hours. The 00Z RAOB from KGSO shows a tall, deeply moist, and skinny CAPE profile with high WBZ heights that are conducive for very efficient convection with extreme rainfall rates that will continue to be capable of reaching 2 to 3+ inches/hour. Given a favorable backbuilding and cell-training environment, some additional rainfall totals on a localized basis may reach 3 to 5 inches which is supported by some hires CAMs. These additional rains are likely to foster more areas of flash flooding over the next few hours, and certainly there will be concerns for locally significant/considerable urban flash flooding impacts. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 36077945 35967851 35767740 35347651 34877655 34587724 34757849 35347983 35827997 ####018001327#### PENA01 KWNH 131200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12130726@@0NMCGPHMPDp@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@;h"~~|||{|{{|}}}}~}}}~|}|||}}~@@h"@@h"@@#?|{|~~~}|{@@?@@?@@=Ђ|{{{z{zzzzzzuz{z{{}}~}|{y@@Ѐ@@Ѐ@@2~|zz{|}}~}~~@@@@@@#D}}|{zzz{||||}~@@D@@D@@_-0690 @@0691 @@ 0692 @@?0693 @@D0694 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 07/13/2026 0359Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @