####018002074#### AWUS01 KWNH 051329 FFGMPD TXZ000-051800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0228 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 929 AM EDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Southeast Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 051328Z - 051800Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms developing along a boundary west of Houston track along the boundary over hydrologically sensitive areas west of Houston and into the Houston Metro. Considerable urban flash flooding potential is increasing. DISCUSSION...Training convection developing west of Houston is moving east towards Houston this morning. The storms have formed along an outflow boundary that was set by the MCS that is departing off to the east. CAMs guidance suggests the boundary will remain nearly stationary through the day. Abundant Gulf moisture moving in from the Gulf will continue to feed moisture and instability into the storms through midday. Thus, the potential for significant, considerable, and high-impact urban flash flooding is increasing. CAMs guidance remains in poor agreement on how this boundary will behave through the day today. Much of the guidance is much further south with the boundary than where it has actually developed. However, they are in better agreement that the boundary convection will not only continue to develop, but gradually backbuild west to as far as the Rio Grande. Should that occur a follow-up MPD may be needed. For now, the area of concern remains for portions of Southeast Texas, as regardless of how far west the convection develops later, storms are likely to continue in the highlighted area. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30299528 30279493 29879455 29419472 29279486 29179521 28919548 28869636 29179688 29339743 29749751 30129726 30159733 30259708 30249631 30259575 ####018000875#### PENA01 KWNH 051200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12050524@@0NMCGPHMPD p@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@+C}}}{{}{~~||~~@@C@@C@@=~||{{z|y{z{|{{{{}}@@@@@@g0227 @@F0228 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/05/2024 1330Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @