####018002021#### AWUS01 KWNH 111823 FFGMPD LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-120007- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0420 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Areas affected...Eastern TX...Far Western LA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 111822Z - 120007Z Summary...Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing along and ahead of a persistent MCS in eastern TX. Training segments ahead of the MCS, and overlapping of heavy rainfall will drive additional scattered flash flooding this afternoon. Discussion...A complex forecast continues this afternoon as an MCS persists across Eastern TX, with leading thunderstorm segments exhibiting training characteristics further north in the over North TX into the Piney Woods Region of LA. Estimated hourly rainfall rates varied somewhat within this activity, between 1.5-2"/hr (west of Lake Charles) and 3"/hr (near Shreveport). This uptick in coverage and intensity is likely due to the activity realizing a NW-SE oriented instability axis characterized by 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2-2.3" PWATS, and 20-30 kts of southwesterly effective shear amid a variety of convergence boundaries analyzed across the region. Going forward, expect training and repeating of cells to drive scattered instances of flash flooding this afternoon and evening. Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR maintain the best handle on the general placement and structure of the ongoing activity, and suggest additional rainfall totals of 2-5" can be expected. Locally considerable flash flooding impacts cannot be ruled out over areas which saw heavy rainfall earlier this morning. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 33509527 33309407 32699359 31489332 29889297 29369356 29499436 31069518 31549669 32269715 33129645 ####018000733#### PENA01 KWNH 111200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12110625@@0NMCGPHMPDp@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@?||{z{z{{z{z{{|z{}}~ ~}|{@@@@@@0420 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 06/11/2025 1823Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @