####018002092#### AWUS01 KWNH 162213 FFGMPD MOZ000-170215- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0746 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 612 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 162210Z - 170215Z SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms along a boundary extending across central Missouri will continue to produce scattered instances of flash flooding into the evening. Expect rainfall of 2-4" in a little over an hour in the discussion area. DISCUSSION...As of 22Z, heavy thunderstorms are along a trough extending east-west south of I-70 in Missouri. Outflow from earlier activity in the KC metro is working its way east along this trough and currently in Pettis Co. As the outflow converges with ongoing activity, particularly heavy rainfall of 3-4"/hr is seen like what recently occurred in Johnson Co. The environment is primed for flash flooding with Gulf-sourced moisture (PW of 2.2" which is 2 sigma above normal) and elevated instability (SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Rapid development can be expected with the arrival of this outflow. Fortunately activity wanes quickly behind the outflow which should bring an end to flash flood causing rain over the western part of MO by 01Z or so. Outflow from prior activity over St. Louis is apparent as moving west along I-70 into Montgomery Co MO. This could also enhance, then kill off activity over the eastern portion of the state through the early evening as well. Will continue to monitor this area including south-central MO which may remain outside the influence of the outflow boundaries for awhile. As of now flash flooding should be expected over portions of central and possibly southeast Missouri. Jackson ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 39459341 39119157 38229117 37899021 37279004 37199039 37409252 38009374 38849370 39189370 ####018001449#### PENA01 KWNH 161200 @UHPISF000CNź MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12160726@@0NMCGPHMPD"P@!' `' ` @ ź¾& źBń7)p&¬PNAM02@@)Žž’€ ž€„„‹†††„…|‚zƒzƒ|…~‹„~„|ƒz|€~ł~żūśśśśśūłśśüü@@Ž€@@Ž€@@7‚ƒƒƒƒ‚ƒ‚‚‚‚ƒ„„„„„…„„…ƒ…ƒ}‚{€|’{’z’zžzžzž{ż{ż|ü{ü|ü|ü|ü|ü|ü|ū|ü|ü}ū~ż~śūüż@@€@@€@@<KOļśśūśśśüüūżƒ„†…„†…„…„„ƒƒ‚ƒƒ„…ƒƒ„…~†~†}…|ƒ}ƒ{‚{{€užzžzžzž{ž{žy’{ž|ż}ūōśł@@KO€@@KO€@@[„ƒ…„„…………„…~†}…|„|„}ƒ}‚z’|ż|ü}ś~ś~ü}ü|ū|ü|ü|ü{ż|ż{ż{ž{’z€q{‚{„{„}„|…}†}…|†}…}„}ƒ}ƒy’{ż|ü}ś÷ūūūśūśśūśüüžžžżžžžżž’€‚‚ƒƒƒ„ƒƒ‚ƒ‚‚@@€@@€@@6ŗ$żžž€€‚‚ƒƒ„„„…………†‡†…„ƒ}ƒ{{€t’z’{žzżzż{üzż{ž}ś{ūū}ž{žzžzż|ū~łśūūüūż@@ŗ$€@@ŗ$€@@y€0742 @@<<€0743 @@X„€0744 @@fX€0745 @@7€0746 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&ž€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ś€ ISSUED 07/16/2026 2213Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™ž€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ś€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @